ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Coldest CDO since Beryl's initial RI to a MH. Current recon or the next one might catch it at peak intensity.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/splillo/status/1807608652783616001

[kevin]

Beryl now:



Beryl 2 hours ago:

[Teban54]

Beryl now:

https://i.imgur.com/gdzVuzM.png

Beryl 2 hours ago:

https://i.imgur.com/5Wk6wxh.png

Better on the IR. Each of the photos is 2 hours apart.

[Teban54]

Unsurprisingly, under the hood of extremely cold convection is a thicc eyewall:

[Hurricane Mike]

5am video on Beryl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6fcvWgDoRw

[kevin]

First pass 957.8 mb with 27 kt winds, 104 kt FL winds and 103 kt SFMR. Supports a pressure of 955 mb, but with winds in the 100 - 105 kt range. So deepening again, but winds still need to catch up. Could also be that the highest wind quads haven't been sampled yet. I expect the pressure/wind ratio to be more typical from now on compared to before when the pressure in the 960s was somewhat high for a cat 4.

[kevin]

Also no indication of double-wind maxima during this pass so it seems the EWRC has been completed.

[aspen]

Unsurprisingly, under the hood of extremely cold convection is a thicc eyewall:
https://i.postimg.cc/HxSJsx8G/ezgif-7-5d48e3b857.gif

This and the latest recon pass show the EWRC is just about done. That eye should start clearing out over the next few hours and it’ll be off to the races.

[GCANE]

Those RH measurements from the eye drops yesterday indicating initiation of an EWRC were all over the place.
First one said there was, second said there wasn't, third said there was.
The first VDM from Gonzo also didn't indicate any EWRC rather a pin hole.
Sorry for the confusion.
Point is there is a high chance of an EWRC shortly after a strong RI event.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Taking on a nasty look now the EWRC is wrapping up, a much larger eye is about to come out with cold cloud tops in the eyewall.

[GCANE]

Beryl will start to get cut off from the Amazon high-TPW feed shortly after passing the islands.
This is due to the feed interacting with the mountains of South America and is the well know E Carib Graveyard effect.
Will need to watch when it is in mid Carib and will try to connect with EPAC high TPW air thru Panama.

[ColdMiser123]

This kind of larger core structure post-EWRC makes it more resilient to wind shear than its previous core. Small cores tend to be more vulnerable to even moderate shear.

The fact that this has a well organized, larger inner core, means it has given itself the best chance of surviving its trek across the Caribbean.

[jlauderdal]

Beryl will start to get cut off from the Amazon high-TPW feed shortly after passing the islands.
This is due to the feed interacting with the mountains of South America and is the well know E Carib Graveyard effect.
Will need to watch when it is in mid Carib and will try to connect with EPAC high TPW air thru Panama.

This system wants to survive the graveyard, and it appears the EWRC will be completed in plenty of time. Yucatan and points south, get ready.

[Nimbus]

This kind of larger core structure post-EWRC makes it more resilient to wind shear than its previous core. Small cores tend to be more vulnerable to even moderate shear.

The fact that this has a well organized, larger inner core, means it has given itself the best chance of surviving its trek across the Caribbean.

Lucky for Barbados that the larger eye didn't clear out earlier since wind fields will be expanding.
Shallow ULL forming over the Bahamas in the WV loop will that be the replacement for the TUTT to the north?

[REDHurricane]

[wxman57]

Consensus models, as I expected, have shifted back south. Now they're south of NHC's last track. Ensembles have been quite steady in taking Beryl well south of Jamaica and inland into central to northern Belize. Consensus models now agree. Look for a south NHC track shift in their next advisory. The A-B-C islands could get some TS winds as Beryl passes.

[jlauderdal]

Solid messaging by the St Lucia Govt, preparation in the Caribbean is always on target and on message. Grenada looks like a direct hit but it will be a fast recovery.

https://www.youtube.com/live/2dQMsMfD8lA

[Stratton23]

Yeah that south trend might start to be reversing, GFS and ICON now have this going straight over jamaica, GEFS ensembles just came out, and now half the members either hit jamaica or pass it by to the north, something to watch if anyone has friends ir family in that are

[kevin]

Much stronger second pass in terms of wind speed. 130 kt FL and 123 kt SFMR, supports 120 kt. Center 957 mb with 35 kt so ~954 mb.