ATL: BERYL - Models

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro ensemble with more members into the Mid/Upper TX coast. Ensemble mean shifted north.

[Texashawk]

12Z Euro ensemble with more members into the Mid/Upper TX coast. Ensemble mean shifted north.

https://i.ibb.co/dbZx5yK/AL02-2024070512-ECENS-0-120h.png

Well, that escalated quickly for those of us in Houston who have been told ‘we should be OK’

[Steve]

Late cycle (12z) Intensity Guidance shows the Hurricane Models with the biggest spikes in intensity. That's not a surprise, but sometimes they get the depictions right.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... mental.png

Late cycle (12z) Track Guidance pretty much eliminates a Mexico landfall. But expect to see maybe a nudge north in most of the members for the early cycle 18z guidance.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... k_late.png

[Steve]

18z Early Cycle is out. I still think this is too far south.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

[jaguars_22]

Are we thinking higher than port o Connor for landfall??? What percentage would you give me in Victoria for getting strong winds?

[sphelps8681]

Are we thinking higher than port o Connor for landfall??? What percentage would you give me in Victoria for getting strong winds?

In my opinion just prep like there will be. Better safe than sorry. JMO.

[tolakram]

Crazy. Just posting another image to make sure it's saved for looking back someday. The Euro has a really bad habit of being undependable for gulf storms.

[ROCK]

18Z ICON is running....oh boy...

[HurricaneBelle]

18Z ICON is running....oh boy...

Knowing the ICON lately, it'll probably make it a Florida storm

[LAF92]

18Z ICON is running....oh boy...

Does the 18z Icon initialize too far west?

[Stratton23]

18z ICON is a direct hit to galveston/ houston metro

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON Galveston Landfall

[HoustonFrog]

Basically zero change from 12z to 18z for ICON. Strong cat 2/weak cat 3 into Galveston

[Wampadawg]

18Z ICON Galveston Landfall
https://i.ibb.co/2gsw5r9/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-63.gif

Welp”

[Frank P]

ICON has been basically forecasting this for some time. no surprise to me and 967 mb is quite the storm, on the cusp of a CAT 3, and with Beryl's history of having a higher pressure and unusually higher wind intensities I would image a Cat 3 would be in the cards if this comes to fruition

[Stormcenter]

Maybe a lot too far south.

18z Early Cycle is out. I still think this is too far south.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

[crimi481]

On WV loop - notice the clouds/weather is moving to the NE. This may influence Beryl in time.
Mexico landfall may end up Fl panhandle landfall

[davidiowx]

On WV loop - notice the clouds/weather is moving to the NE. This may influence Beryl in time.
Mexico landfall may end up Fl panhandle landfall

Not hardly..

[ROCK]

ICON has been basically forecasting this for some time. no surprise to me and 967 mb is quite the storm, on the cusp of a CAT 3, and with Beryl's history of having a higher pressure and lower wind intensities I would image a Cat 3 would be in the cards if this comes to fruition

agree...this model is so persistent...I don't think I have ever seen a model do this without some wild windshield wiper swings. I didn't some research on it between work and it is ran off some EURO parameters which was interesting.

[ronjon]

On WV loop - notice the clouds/weather is moving to the NE. This may influence Beryl in time.
Mexico landfall may end up Fl panhandle landfall

Not hardly..

Agreed. This isn't October. Won't get a deep longwave trough into western GOM this time of year to steer this system into FL panhandle. The forecast trough will only erode the western periphery of the mid-level ridge over the SE. Allowing the storm to round the high in a gradual way.