ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetroMike]

I guess the NHC is going to use the GFS as a timeline that brings it into the coast several hours later than before.

[LandoWill]

I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.

perhaps waiting for more runs to establish a trend. Similar questions were also raised when models were briefly shifting south earlier today, only for 12z runs to bounce back.

They made a big shift this morning south, and it was quite extreme and maybe they caught some flack from the people that be and they are being more conservative with their changes now until tomorrow

[NDG]

Weird how they didn't really change the forecast track despite the TVCN and TVCX consensus model right over Tampa Bay.

[Hurricane2022]

[chaser1]

I guess the NHC is going to use the GFS as a timeline that brings it into the coast several hours later than before.

I was thinking the same thing. I was projecting the latest track for landfall, and then for passing over the Orlando area. I calculated the same 4 hour delay. I don't know WHY I didn't already know that. Everybody knows, hurricanes only landfall at night

[HDGator]

I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.

With the continued organization of Milton tonight, I'm really not liking how this looks for all of the higher densely populated areas on the west coast of Florida. This is evolving into the worst case scenario for Tampa and vicinity. The damage we have seen with Helene in Florida will pale in comparison to this outcome if anything near this forecast track plays out.

Please take care Florida brothers and sisters. If you're in an evacuation zone; please leave. I lived most of my life down there and care deeply for your safety first.

[psyclone]

I wonder if the NHC ticks the track back north at 11 and we end tonight where we began the day...right over the bay...

That’s exactly what I’d expect. What an interesting weekend with Milton.

Didn't happen though...in fact they tilted the track to the right inland...so the center now emerges south of the cape on the east coast...

[Coolcruiseman]

NHC also seems confident on Milton’s exit path. 11 am advisory was basically right over my area, 5 pm nudged a few miles north (still within the eye), and 11 pm back where the 11 am was.

[jasons2k]

Milton is bombing.
I’m afraid Tampa is in trouble, too.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.

perhaps waiting for more runs to establish a trend. Similar questions were also raised when models were briefly shifting south earlier today, only for 12z runs to bounce back.

They made a big shift this morning south, and it was quite extreme and maybe they caught some flack from the people that be and they are being more conservative with their changes now until tomorrow

Whatever their reasoning, it wasn’t that. The NHC adjusts on meteorology, not popular feedback

[Bluehawk]

I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.

perhaps waiting for more runs to establish a trend. Similar questions were also raised when models were briefly shifting south earlier today, only for 12z runs to bounce back.

They made a big shift this morning south, and it was quite extreme and maybe they caught some flack from the people that be and they are being more conservative with their changes now until tomorrow

I very rarely post, as I am here to learn from those who know. My thought about NHC not changing the track further north is that it might have to do more with handling the social part of their work (soft science) rather than the meteorological part of it. Their job is not just to make scientifical weather determinations, but to also do everything possible to get the message in such a way that people listen—extremely difficult task. Having watched one of their afternoon updates, they were mentioning that we should expect to see watches and warnings in the morning for pretty much everyone in the cone. I would think they want to be able to put watches as down south as possible, because I am seeing an extreme caution from most decisions makers this time, more than I have seen with any other hurricane. Perhaps it is easier to make the decision to cancel schools, for example, if you are under a hurricane watch and in the cone, than if you are not, and, to give the decision too late, with all the rain S FL has been having, might not be the best decision.

[StPeteMike]

I’ll be staying up for the 0z model runs. I am surprised NHC didn’t go further north, maybe they’re seeing something we aren’t. But if the 0z GFS and Euro (add ICON in as well) continue to see the northern side of the cone, it would be hard to not see a track bumped close to the mouth of the Tampa Bay.

With the continued organization of Milton tonight, I'm really not liking how this looks for all of the higher densely populated areas on the west coast of Florida. This is evolving into the worst case scenario for Tampa and vicinity. The damage we have seen with Helene in Florida will pale in comparison to this outcome if anything near this forecast track plays out.

Please take care Florida brothers and sisters. If you're in an evacuation zone; please leave. I lived most of my life down there and care deeply for your safety first.

Thanks! Very hard wishing for the best case scenario for St. Pete and Tampa Bay because the worst case scenario gets moved somewhere else along the west coast.

Prepping that I'll lose power this time, was able to be lucky and have it on after Helene. But the risk of wet grounds before he makes landfall definitely increases a more large scale outage for the county compared to Helene. Only good thing, temperatures will be comfortable after Milton.

[ConvergenceZone]

If the track is moved a bit North towards Tampa, it looks like landfall will occur when all of us are asleep early Thursday Morning..........I hate middle of the night landfalls lol.

[chaser1]

Weird how they didn't really change the forecast track despite the TVCN and TVCX consensus model right over Tampa Bay.

My only guess would be some relation to Milton's persistant east motion? Actually 100°, so still south of east. I also wonder if other models initiated correctly, and/or were not recognizing present initial motion?

[Flwxguy86]

Weird how they didn't really change the forecast track despite the TVCN and TVCX consensus model right over Tampa Bay.

They did note: Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.

[MetroMike]

If the track is moved a bit North towards Tampa, it looks like landfall will occur when all of us are asleep early Thursday Morning..........I hate middle of the night landfalls lol.

Do you really think you will even try to sleep?

[chaser1]

If the track is moved a bit North towards Tampa, it looks like landfall will occur when all of us are asleep early Thursday Morning..........I hate middle of the night landfalls lol.

Right? It just never fails

[ConvergenceZone]

If the track is moved a bit North towards Tampa, it looks like landfall will occur when all of us are asleep early Thursday Morning..........I hate middle of the night landfalls lol.

Do you really think you will even try to sleep?

well I'm not in Florida, so the weather won't keep me awake, but I just like to watch the landfall footage.

[cheezyWXguy]

perhaps waiting for more runs to establish a trend. Similar questions were also raised when models were briefly shifting south earlier today, only for 12z runs to bounce back.

They made a big shift this morning south, and it was quite extreme and maybe they caught some flack from the people that be and they are being more conservative with their changes now until tomorrow

I very rarely post, as I am here to learn from those who know. My thought about NHC not changing the track further north is that it might have to do more with handling the social part of their work (soft science) rather than the meteorological part of it. Their job is not just to make scientifical weather determinations, but to also do everything possible to get the message in such a way that people listen—extremely difficult task. Having watched one of their afternoon updates, they were mentioning that we should expect to see watches and warnings in the morning for pretty much everyone in the cone. I would think they want to be able to put watches as down south as possible, because I am seeing an extreme caution from most decisions makers this time, more than I have seen with any other hurricane. Perhaps it is easier to make the decision to cancel schools, for example, if you are under a hurricane watch and in the cone, than if you are not, and, to give the decision too late, with all the rain S FL has been having, might not be the best decision.

You’re absolutely right that their job is to balance accuracy with effective public messaging. A track that shifts back and forth too quickly would fly in the face of the latter. The cone is just a tool, albeit a valuable one, but is superseded by the watches and warnings you mention. They explicitly warn against focusing on the center line, and the width of the cone exists at it is, independent of uncertainty in the moment.

Therefore, regardless of the cone, the message is: if you’re in a hurricane watch or warning, prepare for a hurricane. Plain and simple.

[norva13x]

Weird how they didn't really change the forecast track despite the TVCN and TVCX consensus model right over Tampa Bay.

They did note: Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.

I do want to point out, while we don't always know why they decide where exactly to put the track, they usually are right. I say that desperately wishing it weren't the case as my home is in the bullseye right now.