ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1101 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:00 am

LearnedHat wrote:
Xyls wrote:Should be making landfall on Carriacou in the next minutes. Beryl will be the most intense hurricane to hit the Southern Windwards since records have began.


So when did we start measuring and recording intensity with technology that is similar to what we use today? 1960s? 1970s. Have we always investigated storms this far away?


The mid-1960s when satellites began to be used for weather monitoring is the time intensity estimates got substantially better. Before that, we would occasionally get a reading from an eye at landfall (1935 Labor Day hurricane 892 mb pressure reading) or from a ship. Recon is the best generally since all quadrants of a storm can be sampled, and we have had that since 1944 for many storms.

Back on topic, keep in mind with SFMR, shoaling becomes a major issue near land. I would focus more on flight-level winds and dropsondes for the next several hours until Beryl is clear of the Grenadines.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1102 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:00 am

Recon pass (NE eyewall)

Minimum extrapolated pressure: 950.7 mb
Maximum FL winds: 132 kt
Maximum SFMR: 149 kt
Maximum Est. Sfc. Wind: 139 kt

Blend of 0.9*FL and SFMR: 134 kt
Last edited by kevin on Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1103 Postby LearnedHat » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:00 am

Xyls wrote:
LearnedHat wrote:
Xyls wrote:Should be making landfall on Carriacou in the next minutes. Beryl will be the most intense hurricane to hit the Southern Windwards since records have began.


So when did we start measuring and recording intensity with technology that is similar to what we use today? 1960s? 1970s. Have we always investigated storms this far away?


Official hurricane records go back to 1851 many of them are based on ship records and early meteorological records which are meticulously kept. Much of the data has been refined over the years from reanalyses done by HURDAT. There is an argument that The Great Hurricane of 1780 would be the strongest in the general area but we don't have any particularly good meteorological records on how strong it actually was.



Well, that is sort of an apples to oranges comparison (on the ground reports from landfall areas, etc). How far back can we make legitimate comparisons? Started flying in post WWII with much cruder instruments, I assume good satellite came a couple of decades later along with the dropsondes?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1104 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:01 am

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1105 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:01 am

SFMR of 171mph, MSLP 950mb. Usual caveat about SFMR potentially having a high bias here. We'll see what the NHC thinks.

120 knots is too low, IMHO, but this data came in right after the advisory came in.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1106 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:01 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Waaaaay too low given that last pass. We’ll probably get a special update in an hour or so like yesterday. Recon supports at least 130 kt, pressure down to 951-950 mbar.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1107 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:03 am

Wow, this is horrifying. Carriacau is about to get nailed by a Cat 4…..on JULY 1ST!!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1108 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:04 am

950mb in this pass
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1109 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:04 am

The highest SFMR readings were also well east of land so that also can't be an excuse for the high SFMR.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1110 Postby zzzh » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:04 am

SFMR is definitely questionable, FL didn't increase.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1111 Postby Zonacane » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:04 am

Winds are 130-135 knots
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1112 Postby Nuno » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:05 am

aspen wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Waaaaay too low given that last pass. We’ll probably get a special update in an hour or so like yesterday. Recon supports at least 130 kt, pressure down to 951-950 mbar.


Such a weird decision given how close the storm is. Keep in mind these pressure gradients are high given how close to the equator it is too.

This really could be a "low end" category 5.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1113 Postby KirbyDude25 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:05 am

aspen wrote:
Hurricane2022 wrote:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Waaaaay too low given that last pass. We’ll probably get a special update in an hour or so like yesterday. Recon supports at least 130 kt, pressure down to 951-950 mbar.

I assume we'll get an update statement within the hour. Recon supports something near 125 knots and 951 mb currently, but that could go up even higher today.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1114 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:06 am

Even assuming highly effective mixing of flight-level winds to the surface, I would not trust SFMR that’s higher than flight-level. 130 kts at landfall seems reasonable to me.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1115 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:06 am

kevin wrote:Recon pass (NE eyewall)

Minimum extrapolated pressure: 950.7 mb
Maximum FL winds: 132 kt
Maximum SFMR: 149 kt
Maximum Est. Sfc. Wind: 139 kt

Blend of 0.9*FL and SFMR: 134 kt

There are several reports of over 140kt SFMR winds
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1116 Postby AerospaceEng » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:07 am

NHC nudged forecast track north.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1117 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:07 am

Some of the islands are directly in the middle of the eye
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1118 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:07 am

Last edited by Sciencerocks on Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1119 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:07 am

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1120 Postby kevin » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:08 am

Very curious to what is going at NHC HQ right now. SFMR is 10+ kt above the cat 5 requirement (with 3 measurements, not just a single timestamp). But FL winds, while impressive, a nowhere near those levels and are more representative for 120 kt. Tbh the current satellite presentation and ADT estimates look realistic for anything in the range of 120 - 140 kt. I expect a slight upgrade to 125 kt as SFMR is often deemed less reliable. I hope we get some dropsonde data.
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