ATL: BERYL - Models

[Steve]

thats like 8 runs in a row or more...lol....968 MB

Is it gonna dethrone the OG king for Beryl? Haha

[IcyTundra]

ICON had a good initialization 1000 mb at 10PM tonight which is pretty much what recon found the pressure at. Some slight strengthening tomorrow afternoon according to the ICON and it really takes off Sunday.

[Steve]

Not including ICON so GFS performing. It’s running now and probably way past what TT has. It’s kind of gravy now. I’m going to bed expecting to wake up around 3:30 for the Euro. Got to get the practice in while I can

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS with some erratic stair stepping into Corpus Christi area. Can’t say I buy that overall movement.

[IcyTundra]

GFS seems like a realistic best case scenario in terms of impacts for the TX coast if it continues to struggle with dry air and the shear from that ULL.

[ROCK]

0Z JMA into Freeport - Galveston area.

[Stormcenter]

And the NHC believes the GFS has performed the best so far....okay if you say so.

[copano]

And the NHC believes the GFS has performed the best so far....okay if you say so.

Maybe they're biased against the black sheep ICON

[copano]

And the NHC believes the GFS has performed the best so far....okay if you say so.

Maybe they're biased against the black sheep ICON

[weeniepatrol]

And the NHC believes the GFS has performed the best so far....okay if you say so.

Maybe they're biased against the black sheep ICON

Hard to argue against them TBH. NHC has access to comical amounts of real-time verification and skill value data. Including by individual system

[catskillfire51]

Icon - 06z same spot, a bit weaker.

[txag2005]

06z GFS seems to be in a similar spot but a bit stronger.

[Woofde]

The Euro also seeing a blowup right before landfall.

[jaguars_22]

So safe to say models are trending just a tad west?

[cheezyWXguy]

And the NHC believes the GFS has performed the best so far....okay if you say so.

Thing is, it has performed exceptionally well up to this point, when track was independent of intensity. However, since that obviously isn’t the case now, I think its insistence on underdoing intensity is going to reduce its verification scores a fair bit for the final 5 day window of this hurricane’s lifespan (~2 days ago until ~3 days from now)
Edit: typo

[ROCK]

So safe to say models are trending just a tad west?

Yes they are settling in now. Would have thought that would have been done a a few days ago but it has been a complex system to say the least.

key is where the turn happens. How fast it strengthens, feels the trof..

[jaguars_22]

Rock you think Seadrift as a cat 2?

[ROCK]

Rock you think Seadrift as a cat 2?

thats a good possibility for sure...way things are looking out on Vis. Almost time to now cast and not look at the models anymore....lol

[Steve]

FV3 is out to 24 hours. It’s got it just coming full into its range. Kind of slowly pulling north offshore but not really intensifying. Maybe that will change 36-48 hours?

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/SteveWAFB/status/1809588458383385001


This model has the look of a RI major