ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

This forecast so soon after Helene is one of the worst things I've ever seen

https://i.imgur.com/fSdoPft.png

The Florida insurance crisis is about to go to the next level… whatever that is.

Does anyone know if Tampa general left their aqua wall up? I think it’s supposed to stop up to 15 ft of surge and this could push the limits

I believe theirs is 10 feet.

[underthwx]

There seem to be so many variables regarding timing and track of Milton...I think this is evident by the extent of hurricane watches along the west coast of Florida....so prepare as if there will be hurricane conditions in your areas my friends...even if you are unsure......yall be safe...take care of each other the best you can....until the cyclone passes.....

[eastcoastFL]

One bit of decent news is the wind field hasn’t expanded yet. Hopefully that continues to be the story.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

Still tiny but the transition to extratropical over Florida will change that.

I guess I’d prefer that happening then rather than before landfall. I think…

[kevin]

ADT calls for a pinhole eye. And I know this buzzword is thrown around a lot, but I agree here. Unless I'm forgetting a hurricane, probably the first genuine pinhole in the Atlantic since Delta and Eta.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 OCT 2024 Time : 092020 UTC
Lat : 22:05:19 N Lon : 92:33:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 970.5mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.4C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[kevin]

Recon is roughly 1 hour removed from Milton's center.

[REDHurricane]

ADT calls for a pinhole eye. And I know this buzzword is thrown around a lot, but I agree here. Unless I'm forgetting a hurricane, probably the first genuine pinhole in the Atlantic since Delta and Eta.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 OCT 2024 Time : 092020 UTC
Lat : 22:05:19 N Lon : 92:33:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 970.5mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.4C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

https://i.imgur.com/d4gTDoQ.jpeg

I know I'm not the first person to say this, but it looks like Milton and its pinhole eye could have a decent chance to become the modern-day Wilma -- it's not very likely that Milton gets near the sub-900mb peak predicted by the HAFS models (yesterday's 00z HAFS-B run peaked at 887mb which I didn't even see until now), but these things never are likely until they actually happen

[eastcoastFL]

This forecast so soon after Helene is one of the worst things I've ever seen

https://i.imgur.com/fSdoPft.png

The Florida insurance crisis is about to go to the next level… whatever that is.

Does anyone know if Tampa general left their aqua wall up? I think it’s supposed to stop up to 15 ft of surge and this could push the limits

I believe theirs is 10 feet.

I guess we might find out how much it can hold.

[kevin]

New ADT raw T# up to 6.5 and the eye is rapidly clearing. Temperature in the eye has gone up from -58C to -19C within the last hour. I don't know if I've ever seen an eye clearing at that rate. Sorry for all the spam, but I'm absolutely amazed by what Milton is doing right now.

[Hurricane2022]

I bet recon will find 114 kt FL/962.6 mb extrap in this first pass

[kevin]

I think winds will need a few more hours to catch up, but I do think we'll have ERI-level pressure drops between passes. For the first pass I'm going with 105 kt FL (so 95 kt intensity) and 965 mb.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at that pinhole eye, Milton appears to be moving just south of due east.

[underthwx]

large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and boats pulled
from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe
shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

[REDHurricane]

How's that for a pinhole

[Hurricane2022]

AI-Visible mesoscale loop

[eastcoastFL]

Last VDM 85kt 980mb unofficial

[kevin]

We should have the first center pass with the next recon update in 10 minutes.

[underthwx]

I suggest those of you in the Tampa area....including my hard headed sister read the hurricane local statement....its a lengthy summary of POTENTIAL IMPACTS possible from this cyclone....be well yall...

[weeniepatrol]

Edit: sorry for the expletive

[kevin]

First center pass, 111 kt FL and an extrapolated pressure of 951.3 mb with 15 kt FL nearby. Supports an intensity of 950 mb / 100kt. We have a major hurricane

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/g7LFIIc.png

Gosh. Looks like he will be in the 920s later today. Pray for Florida!