ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

I guess the AF recon is having technical or mechanical issues, is heading back to base.

Thank god this case isn't a Eta-like situation

[Blown Away]

I guess the AF recon is having technical or mechanical issues, is heading back to base.

Did they confirm the LLC position?

[cheezyWXguy]

Windfield has some work to do, but wow, this is a much healthier system than it was this morning. Globals are going to have to play some decent catch-up to accurately reflect intensity

[kevin]

When were the models suggesting this would hit Hurricane status? Tomorrow night? Morning?

Models are still very much fluctuating in terms of strength. The 12z hurricane models showed land interaction with Yucatan and as such only had hurricane intensity on average around Wednesday/Thursday midnight. 18z is still has some models that make landfall on Yucatan. The ones that do have a similar timeframe for hurricane intensity. The ones that don't show hurricane intensity tomorrow (late) in the afternoon.

[FLLurker32]

Not something anyone wants to see heading your way with the entire GOM ahead of it for additional fuel to light it off.
https://i.ibb.co/sqw7NkS/bigimage.jpg

Not as big as Matthew was but she’s sure trying.

[eastcoastFL]

Deepening convection starting to wrap around to the north of center. Could have a monster on our hands by morning.

[TomballEd]

Breaking news AF plane returns to base without making first pass. Hope all is fine ewith the crew.

https://i.imgur.com/4D3PwWA.png

I'd think they'd divert to South Florida if it was an emergency. There is a USAFR base in Homestead.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like recon is finding decent winds and lower pressure east of the center right now. First set of red and orange barbs I’ve seen.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 57kt at 22:54z

There they are. Recon will be very busy the rest of the week.

[Powellrm]

Western NC is going to get crushed with rain. 3.5 and 4+ inches on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ve seen a lot of rain here in NC. Woof. More rain on the way with Helene too.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm not about to tell anyone what to do, but if you are done with your preps and have to help out a friend or relative finish up preps tomorrow, get a good night's sleep tonight. Stay rested and ready. The 0500 update will be crucial, especially if we see changes in wind speed, forward speed, and of course a shift in direction. It doesn't help if you're exhausted trying to help them and being ready for the next 48-72 hours is more important.

Stay vigilant.

Also for new residents on their first storm, when you are making preps don’t forget about your pets. When you buy food and water for the family make sure to get some extra pet food as well. It maybe some days before you can get out and even then the stores may not have anything for a while. Our pets count on us.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That was a strange pass by recon that is still there. Would indicate center is south of the last vortex msg?

[toad strangler]

The sun setting on Helene

[NDG]

I guess the LLC is doing counterclockwise loops per the latest recon's fix.

[eastcoastFL]

The sun setting on Helene
https://i.ibb.co/w0bsPqY/IMG-2465.jpg

We’re basically neighbors. What a scary and ominous sight.

[Category5Kaiju]

The sun setting on Helene
https://i.ibb.co/w0bsPqY/IMG-2465.jpg

Looks like it's knocking on the brink of hurricane status, just by looking at that image alone

[SoupBone]

The sun setting on Helene
https://i.ibb.co/w0bsPqY/IMG-2465.jpg

Looks like it's knocking on the brink of hurricane status, just by looking at that image alone

It's amazing how quickly she got her act together.

[kevin]

Latest recon pass 986.9 mb extrapolated, a drop of almost 4 mb in a little over an hour

[Nimbus]

That was a strange pass by recon that is still there. Would indicate center is south of the last vortex msg?

NW turn hasn't happened yet but its a temporary thing, morning mission will tell, if they don't have the fuel to stay in the area tonight.

[Keldeo1997]

NOAA gets 986 Extrap with 30 kt winds

[xironman]

That was a strange pass by recon that is still there. Would indicate center is south of the last vortex msg?

They missed it east, might circle around