ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Xyls]

943.8 mb
(~ 27.87 inHg)

Is this the actual reading? Because WTF is happening?

[Keldeo1997]

Now Rita and 1935 isn't going to be challenged right guys????

[kevin]

9 mb in 53 minutes indicates a deepening rate of roughly 10 mb/hr. I just looked up Wilma's report. Here's an excerpt from it.

Wilma’s deepening rate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, from late on 18 October to
early on 19 October, was incredible. Over the period from 2310 UTC to 0433 UTC, the central
pressure fell from 954 mb to 901 mb, which is a deepening rate of 9.9 mb per hour.

In other words, we're looking at a potential Wilma 2.0.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[GCANE]

Insane!
80 mm/hr rain rate.
IMHO Cat 4 by end of day.

[Xyls]

9 mb in 53 minutes indicates a deepening rate of roughly 10 mb/hr. I just looked up Wilma's report. Here's an excerpt from it.

Wilma’s deepening rate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, from late on 18 October to
early on 19 October, was incredible. Over the period from 2310 UTC to 0433 UTC, the central
pressure fell from 954 mb to 901 mb, which is a deepening rate of 9.9 mb per hour.

In other words, we're looking at a potential Wilma 2.0.

I mean, at the rate we are going Patricia might be a better ceiling than Wilma?

[Xyls]

Insane!
80 mm/hr rain rate.
IMHO Cat 4 by end of day.

By end of day? At the rate this is going we will have a Cat 5 by lunch...

[Charleswachal]

Let's start talking about the ERI record. Milton was still a TS 10am CDT yesterday (15z). Now, 6am CDT (11z) it is a major hurricane. That means it only took 20 hours to go from a TS to a cat 3. Wilma's record for a TS to a C5 is 24 hours. Note that Wilma also intensified from a C3 to a C5 within 5 hours. While unlikely, this means that if Milton intensifies into a cat 5 within the next 4 hours Wilma's unbreakable record will be broken.

So with a 9 mb pressure drop over the last hour extrapolated out to the following 4 hours would indicate we could easily break the record.

[weeniepatrol]

Waiting for dropsonde. Could be a mesovort.

[aspen]

Holy cow, 943.8mb extrapolated and 110-115 kt FL. I was not expecting this to blow up like that overnight.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Oy Vey Florida…

This parked over BOC for a very hot minute. At what point does upwelling become a factor?

[Xyls]

Oy Vey Florida…

This parked over BOC for a very hot minute. At what point does upwelling become a factor?

I mean the storm is pretty small so don't know if we would be seeing a lot of upwelling at this point.

[GCANE]

Looks like about 15 miles south of forecast track

[eastcoastFL]

"A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast. "

is the NHC going to adjust the track at 8 AM....

They're probably going to increase the max intensity at 8am.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like about 15 miles south of forecast track

We saw during Wilma the eye would bounce around in an oscillating, sinusoidal fashion. I wonder if we're going to see that here, considering Milton's deepening at that rate.

[xironman]

Oy Vey Florida…

This parked over BOC for a very hot minute. At what point does upwelling become a factor?

Upwelling only really happens in a stall, it is moving fast enough to cover new ocean

[GCANE]

Insane!
80 mm/hr rain rate.
IMHO Cat 4 by end of day.

By end of day? At the rate this is going we will have a Cat 5 by lunch...

LOL.
However, with such a high RI, an EWRC becomes much more likely.

Watching the eyedrops to see if RH at 850mb starts to drop.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1843240534170566837

[eastcoastFL]

Insane!
80 mm/hr rain rate.
IMHO Cat 4 by end of day.

Yikes. This thing is exploding in every aspect. The Gulf is a beast incubator.

[Chemmers]

Unfortunately I think it just a matter off time now until it get to cat 5 now, stay safe everyone