ATL: BERYL - Models

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF has this a hurricane tomorrow night, going to be an interesting run.
Looks like it is shooting the gap north of Jamaica.

[BobHarlem]

HAFSB closest approach to Barbados, solid cat 3 here.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF and HMON get this to Cat 4, HAFS A and B both have a Cat 3. I initially figured this would struggle to get higher than lower end Cat 1 given the time of year, and I'm still a little skeptical it becomes a major but it seems like it's starting to become a possibility.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If the HWRF ended up being right with intensity (big, big if) - I have serious doubts that we'd see full-on dissipation like what the GFS is depicting in the western Caribbean. There'd be enough to weaken the system, but at that point land interaction would be the main driver.

[Ubuntwo]

If the HWRF ended up being right with intensity (big, big if) - I have serious doubts that we'd see full-on dissipation like what the GFS is depicting in the western Caribbean. There'd be enough to weaken the system, but at that point land interaction would be the main driver.

GFS is only showing dissipation due to interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola. The Tiburon peninsula, though narrow, has peaks in excess of 7,000ft. It's TC poison - especially for a small, compact system. Direct landfall is not needed, either, as low level inflow is easily choked off for a system on the south side of the island. I agree that without land interaction, the anticyclone would be well-established enough to prevent serious decay.

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs clips Barbados on the right side and then goes over St. Vincent. Once in the caribbean it's a little left (south) of 18z.



Later a bit weaker (probably tutt) but manages to slip into the gap between Jamaica and Haiti so it doesn't get as torn up as 18z. (And yeah the other system east of Beryl goes right over the same places more or less) Then gets pretty close to the Cayman Islands.


Manages to miss cuba this run too although other factors are keeping it pretty weak here. The other wave is riding the wake.


Interestingly when both systems get into the gulf, both go poof.

[weeniepatrol]

GEFS trends stronger. All members now at least 40 kt 2-3 days out

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1806992753278009760

[cycloneye]

GFS now extends to GOM.

[cycloneye]

Beryl to SE Texas.

[Blown Away]

If HWRF is right, could be one of the strongest hurricanes to track over St. Vincent.

[BobHarlem]

Track consensus shifted left (south) again, looks more and more likely to avoid land areas after the Windwards, at least until the Yucatan Peninsula (Belize/Mexico border). Jamaica though, it's going to be close there. Maybe the Cayman Islands also.

[REDHurricane]

Just for fun, here's a quick look at how the most recent run of each hurricane model has initialized Beryl compared to forecast intensity as it approaches the Windward Islands:

ACTUAL IR SATELLITE VIEW (as of 15:25z):





HWRF initialization:


HWRF forecast:




HAFS-A initialization:


HAFS-A forecast:




HAFS-B initialization:


HAFS-B forecast:



To me it appears that HWRF has the best idea of the current storm structure and potential track/intensity, but I'll be interested to see how the next few hurricane model runs turn out regardless.

[3090]

Noticing an ever slight bend/track more towards the upper NE corner of the YP, in the most recent official NHC extended forecast track, beyond 5 days. Previous extended track, was more of a bend towards the middle of the YP, after brushing Cayman island. Is this a trend, beyond 5 days? Time will tell. Not sure if the very southern most Texas gulf coast is clear, in the very extended forecast period. WAY too soon to call.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1807083666717213112

[3090]

Just for fun, here's a quick look at how the most recent run of each hurricane model has initialized Beryl compared to forecast intensity as it approaches the Windward Islands:

ACTUAL IR SATELLITE VIEW (as of 15:25z):
https://i.ibb.co/RSszLSV/0e03dd29-ff63-42f2-9dcd-a28c2e1fd0a1.jpg



HWRF initialization:
https://i.ibb.co/KVhfFR7/hwrf-sat-IR-02-L-3.png

HWRF forecast:
https://i.ibb.co/ygfvK7K/hwrf-mslp-wind-02-L-20.png



HAFS-A initialization:
https://i.ibb.co/Ln5gFc9/hafsa-sat-IR-02-L-5.png

HAFS-A forecast:
https://i.ibb.co/8bh2H8B/hafsa-mslp-wind-02-L-20.png



HAFS-B initialization:
https://i.ibb.co/GnyJjVj/hafsb-sat-IR-02-L-5.png

HAFS-B forecast:
https://i.ibb.co/9w73GKV/hafsb-mslp-wind-02-L-20.png


To me it appears that HWRF has the best idea of the current storm structure and potential track/intensity, but I'll be interested to see how the next few hurricane model runs turn out regardless.

This is interesting and excellent! Thanks.

[Cpv17]

Noticing an ever slight bend/track more towards the upper NE corner of the YP, in the most recent official NHC extended forecast track, beyond 5 days. Previous extended track, was more of a bend towards the middle of the YP, after brushing Cayman island. Is this a trend, beyond 5 days? Time will tell. Not sure if the very southern most Texas gulf coast is clear, in the very extended forecast period. WAY too soon to call.

But a lot of ensembles have Beryl weakening significantly in the western Caribbean. Not sure if that will verify though.

[3090]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1807083666717213112

This is not a trend we (U.S.) want to see. My point in another post I made.

[3090]

Noticing an ever slight bend/track more towards the upper NE corner of the YP, in the most recent official NHC extended forecast track, beyond 5 days. Previous extended track, was more of a bend towards the middle of the YP, after brushing Cayman island. Is this a trend, beyond 5 days? Time will tell. Not sure if the very southern most Texas gulf coast is clear, in the very extended forecast period. WAY too soon to call.

But a lot of ensembles have Beryl weakening significantly in the western Caribbean. Not sure if that will verify though.

Yeah…should the extended forecast track trend continue, the intensity of Beryl moving into the BOC will be interesting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Some short-term verification:

Yesterday's 18z HWRF had Beryl at 996mb at 55 knots at this time. This has verified. HWRF is showing the storm at 105 knots by the time it reaches Barbados' longitude. The stronger storm will feel a natural poleward tug. I believe this is why the Euro is not going to verify with its track straight into central America, as it is doing what I believe is a poor short-term job on its intensity.