ATL: DEBBY - Models

[robbielyn]

https://i.postimg.cc/KYBF16VC/ggg.gif

If this scenario pans out Bernie Rayno called it last night that it would be more in the southern half of the florida peninsula. Didn't think it would get very strong due to lack of time in the open waters. He said Haiti and Cuba's mountains would leave a tiny amount of storm to work with and would have to start from scratch to rebuild the storm.

[OuterBanker]

All hail king Euro.
Although it didn't see the west coast Fl landfall it did see the east coast rider. Two days ago.
GFS went from nada to a flooding Fl meanderer (which caused a spike in Florida Ark Builders stock).

Now there is close to unanimous consensus of a east coast rider.

All hail King Euro!

(Unfortunately, it looks like we will get the worse of Debby)

[TomballEd]

Not digging NAM’s projection

The NAM is not regarded as a good tropical model, the 3km NAM is worse, it has had sub700 mb storms in the Gulf.

[jlauderdal]

Looks more east, ian was supposed to nail tampa...different system, different setup, models still have error rates and the shape of florida and no center arent helpful to a track forecast.

[Jr0d]

https://i.postimg.cc/KYBF16VC/ggg.gif

Looks more east, ian was supposed to nail tampa...different system, different setup, models still have error rates and the shape of florida and no center arent helpful to a track forecast.

If the low consolidates south of Cuba later today it could have time to become a depression or storm before crossing Cuba.

It does seem like it will really start consolidating once it is north of Cuba initially heading north to NNW before going NE, unfortunately the hurricane models are having a tough time initializing it right now, the Global models lack the resolution, and the Mesoscale models are sub par at best for tropical systems. Regardless the consensus of the models suggest it will likely become a storm near the Florida Straits.

As usual the path is crucial. If it develops further south and/or makes it further west than expected, it will have significant more time over water. As we saw with Beryl, even extra 3 hours over water can make a big difference. As it moves NE appears barocyclonic forcing will help spin it up as it crosses the Florida peninsula.

[chaser1]

Not digging NAM’s projection

The NAM is not regarded as a good tropical model, the 3km NAM is worse, it has had sub700 mb storms in the Gulf.

While NAM is pointless on intensity or specific track, it can be quite helpful when stepping back from the monitor and seeing how it's updates are picking up broader scale nuanced mid or upper-level changes for broad regional areas such as E. Seaboard, Midwest, or S.E. CONUS. Corrections or changes in anticipated short wave energy or ridge heights/orientations might give a clue how upcoming Global models may shift, weaken, or amplify how a meso scale event may unfold. All tools are useful, with some more explicit than others.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon is mostly like the 6z before now, but it's MUCH closer to Charleston to Georgetown SC here.


And still goes into Oak Island/Wilmington then stalls over eastern North Carolina like 0z did.

[robbielyn]

Not digging NAM’s projection

The NAM is not regarded as a good tropical model, the 3km NAM is worse, it has had sub700 mb storms in the Gulf.

While NAM is pointless on intensity or specific track, it can be quite helpful when stepping back from the monitor and seeing how it's updates are picking up broader scale nuanced mid or upper-level changes for broad regional areas such as E. Seaboard, Midwest, or S.E. CONUS. Corrections or changes in anticipated short wave energy or ridge heights/orientations might give a clue how upcoming Global models may shift, weaken, or amplify how a meso scale event may unfold. All tools are useful, with some more explicit than others.

This happened with charley 2004. NAM and the RUC2 saw the turn to the right before any other models. So once in a while it can be useful.

[BobHarlem]

notable left shift on the 12z GFS so far compared to 6z.




Right into tampa bay here.


Travels right up I-4 to Daytona

[chaser1]

12z icon is mostly like the 6z before now, but it's MUCH closer to Charleston to Georgetown SC here.

https://i.imgur.com/ggZBzUw.png
And still goes into Oak Island/Wilmington then stalls over eastern North Carolina like 0z did.

https://i.imgur.com/1W056aG.png

For what its worth, the 6Z and 12Z ICON seems far more plausible with a 12Z Aug 5 landfall around Cedar Key, then the 6Z GFS landfall further south around Sarasota at 12Z on Aug 4

[toad strangler]

12z GFS landfalls in Tampa area

[chaser1]

Depending on a more southward or westward genesis (than currently forecast), I'd expect tonight's 0Z and especially by 12Z tomm morning to depict a track a bit further west and a landfall further north as it was depicting several runs ago.

[Michele B]

12z GFS landfalls in Tampa area

They never do. Not buying it!

The Peace River's very warm water always diverts them. Then they come in at Ft. Myers.

[toad strangler]

The NC coast no longer exists after the 12z GFS

[Steve]

The real play on the GFS and ICON is the slow movement off the coasts of SC and NC. Looks like a Cat 2 +/- 970ish and hanging around a couple days.

[DunedinDave]

12z GFS landfalls in Tampa area

Not to discount Tampa (esp since I live here) but the bigger story could be this thing getting powerful in the Gulf Stream and getting stuck right off either Jax Beach, Savannah, Myrtle Beach or Wilmington area. I don’t like that track for the east coast. Could be a nightmare.

[BobHarlem]

Dangerously close to NC here (Coast gets raked)


Ocracoke and Hatteras get the eyewall

[toad strangler]

12z CMC inland at Cedar Key area and stays inland to the NE walloping SC with torrential rains

[Lightning48]

Hi Michelle- Be careful because some day it will and due to complacency it will not be a pretty sight. As you know Charley for example went from a Cat one to a five in I believe 6 hours. All it needs is a sweet spot and people are messed up.

[robbielyn]

12z GFS landfalls in Tampa area

They never do. Not buying it!

The Peace River's very warm water always diverts them. Then they come in at Ft. Myers.

How does the peace river with its warm waters divert the storm?