ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

PTC5 still a sharp trough this morning. I think its forward speed is preventing the disturbance from closing off. Maybe as the disturbance nears USVI it will get upgraded......MGC

[tropicwatch]

PTC5 still a sharp trough this morning. I think its forward speed is preventing the disturbance from closing off. Maybe as the disturbance nears USVI it will get upgraded......MGC

It also needs to gain some latitude if it's going to get pulled north as soon as they have forecast. Thinking it might go a little further west than anticipated.

[chaser1]

Hmmm, could you imagine a scenario where a combination of dry air and vertical shear induced by strong easterlies resulted in a strong wave to keep truckin' west..........
and vorticity along the wave's southern axis then rapidly develop around 75W - 80W??

[BobHarlem]

WV Satellite seems to jive with the GFS idea of weaker/west here. Recon will help a lot with this one.

[TallyTracker]

WV Satellite seems to jive with the GFS idea of weaker/west here. Recon will help a lot with this one.

https://i.imgur.com/6r203zx.gif

The Atlantic looks like a desert in that view. This system may be struggling with dry air for much of its lifespan. I think it will still develop when it slows down, but I’m not sure it’s gonna intensify really fast unless it can seal off all that dry air.

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

https://i.imgur.com/eg9vin4.gif

From the motion of the clouds in that loop, one would think it's now moving directly westward. It's probably still moving WNW, though.

EDIT: The latest advisory states it's now moving west (albeit, not directly westward.)

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/eg9vin4.gif

From the motion of the clouds in that loop, one would think it's now moving directly westward. It's probably still moving WNW, though.

If this holds off developing until it is past the leeward islands, it may not swing north as soon as they are predicting! However, I'm just a
rank amateur and JM2C.

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[underthwx]

The 11 am NHC Advisory track... has PTC 5 tracking over central PR......is this shift westward due to its fast forward motion?....26 mph is fast!......this can be a silver lining perhaps?....maybe the system will not get organized into a stronger cyclone before it reaches Puerto Rico.....where our birthday boy Cycloneye lives....

[WaveBreaking]

There might be an LLC near 16N 56W.

[Sciencerocks]

Well defined LLC developing. Recon may find it closed.

[MGC]

Yes just noticed a well defined circulation several hundred miles east of Guadeloupe. It is mostly exposed with one cell near the center. 16N 56W......MGC

[Nimbus]

Yes just noticed a well defined circulation several hundred miles east of Guadeloupe. It is mostly exposed with one cell near the center. 16N 56W......MGC

it was at 15.95 N 5-6.15 W..

[Hurricane2022]

The new Experimental Cone of the NHC is now avaliable for PTC 05L



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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

[tropicwatch]

Was just looking at some of info from the HH. Notice they were flying under 500ft. The lowest I remember seeing them fly was 800ft. Wow

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1823048827504402574

[KirbyDude25]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Five, located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
NNNN

[aspen]

Looks like a solid LLC at 15.6N/56.5W from recon. Perhaps enough for an upgrade to TD5 at 5pm?

[aspen]

TS-force winds found NE of the LLC (~45 kt FL, ~35 kt SFMR). The plane has not changed in altitude since the LLC pass, so these aren’t caused by altitude adjustments.