ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hugo1989]

Just a personal opinion. Hurricane after midnight!

[eastcoastFL]

Latest recon pass 986.9 mb extrapolated, a drop of almost 4 mb in a little over an hour

Yikes. This should be a hurricane before it hits the gulf, maybe a significant one. Anyone seeing any inhibiting factors tonight?

[aspen]

Center with a super tight pressure gradient a little SW of the first center fix. Hard to tell if this is the center bouncing around as it still tries to consolidate, or if the HAFS-B is right and this is going to track into the tip of the Yucatan.

[La Sirena]

Western NC is going to get crushed with rain. 3.5 and 4+ inches on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ve seen a lot of rain here in NC. Woof. More rain on the way with Helene too.

Same here in NE Tennessee. I’m about 15 min from the NC line. We’ve had rain but this could put things way over the edge for us.

[Hugo1989]

Mid-level flow rotation is getting healthier. Nothing can't stop Helena now!

Shrimping?
More
Like prawning!

Echoes of Gilbert/Wilma

[FLLurker32]

In the 5pm forecast discussion the NHC had Helene at 65mph at their 12hr point.

The 8pm intermediate now has her already at 60mph.

Oof.

[psyclone]

Western NC is going to get crushed with rain. 3.5 and 4+ inches on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ve seen a lot of rain here in NC. Woof. More rain on the way with Helene too.

Same here in NE Tennessee. I’m about 15 min from the NC line. We’ve had rain but this could put things way over the edge for us.

I remember and miss your keys reports. Do stay aware up there...the risk of flooding in the southern apps...especially south and east facing slopes...is very substantial.

[NDG]

Dropsonde missed the center. 990mb with 17 knot winds.

990mb (29.24 inHg)

[kevin]

NHC update: 991 mb / 50 kt. They put the center at 19.8N, 85.3W with a current movement WNW of 300 deg.

[psyclone]

Helene is doing make up work

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest recon pass 986.9 mb extrapolated, a drop of almost 4 mb in a little over an hour

Yikes. This should be a hurricane before it hits the gulf, maybe a significant one. Anyone seeing any inhibiting factors tonight?

Waters are warm, there's no significant surrounding dry air, structure looks to be very healthy with banding....the only thing I can really think of is shear? But we're talking 10 knots or so, which shouldn't be too detrimental to a large, well-organized system like this.

[cheezyWXguy]

Center with a super tight pressure gradient a little SW of the first center fix. Hard to tell if this is the center bouncing around as it still tries to consolidate, or if the HAFS-B is right and this is going to track into the tip of the Yucatan.

I imagine this is still going through a looping motion that averages toward the NW or so, revolving around a common point with the core convection as they align. That gradient is seriously tight though, more so than I expected given the broad envelope.

I’m sure someone more knowledgeable could speak on track, but the stronger runs of the hafs models do seem to have accurately depicted the very small core structure embedded in a very large circulation, at least up to this point. Of course, this doesn’t mean that a sub-900mb monster is remotely reasonable

[eastcoastFL]

She’s scary but she sure is becoming a beautiful storm.

[eastcoastFL]

Latest recon pass 986.9 mb extrapolated, a drop of almost 4 mb in a little over an hour

Yikes. This should be a hurricane before it hits the gulf, maybe a significant one. Anyone seeing any inhibiting factors tonight?

Waters are warm, there's no significant surrounding dry air, structure looks to be very healthy with banding....the only thing I can really think of is shear? But we're talking 10 knots or so, which shouldn't be too detrimental to a large, well-organized system like this.

Thank you. Seems like all systems are a go. Hopefully some dry air or shear will show up.

[psyclone]

Looks like a formative giant west pac typhoon

[Nederlander]

Western NC is going to get crushed with rain. 3.5 and 4+ inches on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ve seen a lot of rain here in NC. Woof. More rain on the way with Helene too.

Same here in NE Tennessee. I’m about 15 min from the NC line. We’ve had rain but this could put things way over the edge for us.

We usually vacation in Gatlinburg every year in late Oct., but aren’t this year. I hope this doesn’t mess with the color change too much.

[SecondBreakfast]

Hey GCANE or anyone really, what’s the tornado risk looking like on this for central Florida getting the SE quadrant? Looking out for my brother in Orlando.

Good luck to everyone along the gulf with your preparations.

[SouthFLTropics]

Western NC is going to get crushed with rain. 3.5 and 4+ inches on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ve seen a lot of rain here in NC. Woof. More rain on the way with Helene too.

Same here in NE Tennessee. I’m about 15 min from the NC line. We’ve had rain but this could put things way over the edge for us.

Ya'll be careful up there in the Smoky Mountains. Lots of people only focus on the coastal impacts these storms bring and forget about the impacts further inland. This big girl is going to have extensive impacts all the way up into the Tennessee Valley. My mom lives in Maggie Valley and she texted me today and said that officials are already preparing for flooding of low lying areas. The other concern is that the wind is going to really be whipping up there, especially in the higher elevations. As saturated as the ground is, it will likely lead to many downed trees and loss of vegetation, which then can contribute to mudslides. I know the Nantahala Gorge along Highway 19 has had issues over the past several years with large mudslides and washouts.

[weeniepatrol]

Looks like a formative giant west pac typhoon

WPAC SSTs and heat content and you get WPAC systems, I guess.



This is a bit ridiculous.

[Sciencerocks]