ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stangfriik]

Was it supposed to just meander in the same general area like this? Seems it hasn’t really moved too much.

[TallyTracker]

Live Oak to Lake City is getting drowned right now! It’s starting to clear out in Tallahassee though the wind is still knocking trees down.

[Nimbus]

You can see the high cirrus clouds moving north towards the Texas coastline in the loop.
That is the western side of the high pressure circulation.
Upper level low out in the Atlantic forcing the steering winds south on the eastern side.

Debby should push east offshore near Georgia state line if this were instant perfect steering but..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[StPeteMike]

Seems to be either stationary or moving ever so slightly to the east.

Hope Steinhatchee is doing well, they have have been receiving the southern portion of Debby for hours now and nonstop water being pushed into that corner portion of FL.

[crimi481]

Incredible amounts of heavy rain continues coming from gulf via storms tail.
Getting pounded here in Venice/Englewood. Lots more coming. If storm slows more or stalls, we may need an Ark and not a car. wow!

[Michele B]

Was it supposed to just meander in the same general area like this? Seems it hasn’t really moved too much.

I'm wondering if it's going to rain itself out right where it is and not even make it into the Atlantic as a TS.

[Steve]

If Debby does indeed park itself just off the coast for a couple days, how does the interaction of land affect it's structure during this time? By the look of the 8AM NHC track , it might sit 50-100 miles off the coast of SC.

That is the thing, after the NHC nudged the track east yesterday the concern is that Debby might stall long enough offshore to redevelop her pressure gradient. Coastal erosion has been a problem since the Childs point disaster and even things like bridge infrastructure take a beating with a storm like that. Tampa bay caught another break as it moved past quickly and many people didn't even lose power.

I'm in Raleigh and had lived in Ft Lauderdale for 8 years and this has my hurricane sense tingling really badly.

I'll probably ask in the model thread also, but can anyone point me to what the ICON is specifically seeing that is causing it to think Debby will be over the Gulfstream longer allowing it to intensify more and have a closer to NC second landfall?

Of course I'm going out of town, flying out tonight and need to plan if I should bring in the outside stuff this afternoon before I leave/what we need to look out for in general, because the ICON has me concerned for wind impacts as well as rain impacts in Raleigh, especially sincegoing from 8-12 inches of rain to 12-16+ in Raleigh is like 30 miles in the track it feels like.

Also, vibes to everyone in the path getting the biggest impacts from this...these things stalling is so scary

Run the 500mb. It’s in response to flat steering and then another trough. The darker the red the higher the pressure and vice versa.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=12

[underthwx]

good morning everyone!.....I have stepped back from posting...to avoid cluttering the thread....so yall can share vital information....I just wanted to wish all yall affected by cyclone Debby....the best....be doubly safe...take care of each other....I have been following the thread....and I have to say that yall are keeping me....and everyone informed!....thankyou and I wish blue sky's will reign supreme soon!....

[tolakram]

saved loop

[IsabelaWeather]

This was a surprisingly easy call many hours ago.

I was just happy to see the NHC finally admit an Eastern component at 5.

Forecast history so far
https://i.imgur.com/ajXyvqn.gif

Another track nailed by the NHC. Even with all the talk yesterday that it was moving way more east than expected, that did not happen. Only a few miles from the middle of apalachee bay.

[crimi481]

Stalled - or going back south?

[toad strangler]

I was just happy to see the NHC finally admit an Eastern component at 5.

Forecast history so far
https://i.imgur.com/ajXyvqn.gif

Another track nailed by the NHC. Even with all the talk yesterday that it was moving way more east than expected, that did not happen. Only a few miles from the middle of apalachee bay.

Yes. I know there are cone detractors but the three day version proved deadly accurate once again.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not seeing a stall or much southward movement at the moment, looks gradually east to me. The remnant eye feature is really more of a dry spot now, as it’s not really co-located with the circulation center anymore. Velocity gives a better picture of where the true circulation center is.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Stalled - or going back south?

It is definitely not moving...I'm not sure about it backtracking though

[galaxy401]

Debbys have a history of hating Florida don't they. Sadly a few deaths have been reported due to trees and flooding. So far every storm this hurricane season has caused fatalities.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1820504402266132863

[sponger]

Forecast history so far
https://i.imgur.com/ajXyvqn.gif

Another track nailed by the NHC. Even with all the talk yesterday that it was moving way more east than expected, that did not happen. Only a few miles from the middle of apalachee bay.

Yes. I know there are cone detractors but the three day version proved deadly accurate once again.

Really? It moved 25-30 miles East while going North. Amazing!

[IcyTundra]

Another track nailed by the NHC. Even with all the talk yesterday that it was moving way more east than expected, that did not happen. Only a few miles from the middle of apalachee bay.

Yes. I know there are cone detractors but the three day version proved deadly accurate once again.

Really? It moved 25-30 miles East while going North. Amazing!

25-30 miles is well within the margin of error for a forecast at that time range.

[sponger]

Yes. I know there are cone detractors but the three day version proved deadly accurate once again.

Really? It moved 25-30 miles East while going North. Amazing!

25-30 miles is well within the margin of error for a forecast at that time range.

Not the point. The NHC insisted all night that it was moving North when East jogs where quite evident.

[IcyTundra]

Really? It moved 25-30 miles East while going North. Amazing!

25-30 miles is well within the margin of error for a forecast at that time range.

Not the point. The NHC insisted all night that it was moving North when East jogs where quite evident.

The area where it made landfall was in the cone for every advisory. Everyone in the cone should be prepared for a direct hit because it can be hard to forecast wobbles and small deviations from the track.