ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Woofde]

I think too many people have this idea that center of the storm is the storm, and that it singlehandedly dictates and controls how the storm moves. Yes the perpiphery of the storm rotates around the center, but the center is still liable to feeling tugging effects, pushes, pulls etc from the rest of the storm as well. You need to look at what the entire envelope is doing. Trying to nail down center wobbles is not something that can be done with any confidence yet, especially >6 hours out.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/1820522960563884366

What kind of record is that? Is that specifically an August 5th record? Because obviously there have been other days with more rain.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's possible that Debby's 2nd landfall might be a hurricane as well, because in the NHC discussion they say 60 MPH, but they also mention that 60 mph might be conservative.

[Nimbus]

It's possible that Debby's 2nd landfall might be a hurricane as well, because in the NHC discussion they say 60 MPH, but they also mention that 60 mph might be conservative.

If it tracks back out over water near the Georgia state border by tomorrow morning it wouldn't weaken as much as the models that stall it inland are predicting. Would have longer over water to restrengthen. NHC would notice something like that and mention it in their morning discussion.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's possible that Debby's 2nd landfall might be a hurricane as well, because in the NHC discussion they say 60 MPH, but they also mention that 60 mph might be conservative.

If it tracks back out over water near the Georgia state border by tomorrow morning it wouldn't weaken as much as the models that stall it inland are predicting. Would have longer over water to restrengthen. NHC would notice something like that and mention it in their morning discussion.

Yea and it has plenty of time to reach hurricane strength once it emerges back over water, which is probably why the NHC said their forecasted strength may be conservative.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's possible that Debby's 2nd landfall might be a hurricane as well, because in the NHC discussion they say 60 MPH, but they also mention that 60 mph might be conservative.

If it tracks back out over water near the Georgia state border by tomorrow morning it wouldn't weaken as much as the models that stall it inland are predicting. Would have longer over water to restrengthen. NHC would notice something like that and mention it in their morning discussion.

The Gulf Stream, I'm tellin' ya

[Kohlecane]

https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/1820522960563884366

What kind of record is that? Is that specifically an August 5th record? Because obviously there have been other days with more rain.

Yes I believe that is a date specific, because CHS has had 2+ inches recently with some of these fronts in June/July

[Orlando]

I am amazed that this storm has held together and still looks hurricanish. I would have thought that going over this much land would have done more to break it up. It is very worrisome to imagine its future.

[Kohlecane]

In Beaufort, lots of rain so far, using my good ole graduated cylinder for rainfall, gusts up to 30mph but relatively calm most the day, just watching these cells off the coast for any brief spin ups

[Kohlecane]

Also what a perfect time for Charleston radar to go offline lol

[caneman]

longer loop

https://i.imgur.com/Nu2ic7N.gif

This loop illustrates a point I tried to make in several posts yesterday. Debby’s core was tilted all of yesterday until after sunset, which I would guess was due to some mid level shear out of the southwest. This resulted in the eyewall feature observed on radar being pushed further eastward, becoming ragged, and then reforming again in closer alignment to the surface center before being pushed away again. If I remember correctly, recon center fixes throughout the day showed a more consistent northward movement, with some wobbles, but more subtle than radar suggested. Additionally, many of the center fixes earlier in the day and during the prior night did not show the windshift and point of lowest pressure to be colocated.

My point here is, at least as far as I could see yesterday, the surface center’s average movement yesterday was quite consistently north, even if reflectivity radar didn’t suggest it, based on this I side with the NHC’s reporting of Debby’s heading.

There cleary was an eastern component as it came in the eastern side of models and the cone. The final landfall tracking clearly shows the tracking with some stair stepping eastern component. Perhaps not as much as NE but definitely NNE. There clearly was an eastern component. The ladt models I recall showed Crawfordville to Perry. It ended more than 30 miles east of Perry due to that eastern component. All in all though the NHC did a bang up job.

[weeniepatrol]

https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/1820522960563884366

What kind of record is that? Is that specifically an August 5th record? Because obviously there have been other days with more rain.

Yes I believe that is a date specific, because CHS has had 2+ inches recently with some of these fronts in June/July

Yeah. It's a daily record, so it's comparing to all other August 5ths in the record. It is NOT a monthly or annual record.

[Nimbus]

AF308 is flying..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is it just me, or does this look like its getting awfully close to the coast? It's not supposed to be this far east until Tues. 2pm

[ScottNAtlanta]

Look at it's position. Looks like it will go right over JAX

[cycloneye]

AF308 is flying..

https://i.imgur.com/yTjqTjC.jpeg

Is not a mission to Debby as is a training flight. I posted the TCPOD for Tuesday and Wednesday at the recon thread.

[Poonwalker]

Just an update from Pinellas. I live in Seminole and we had at least 9 inches of rain. Was expecting to see flooding in the low areas but the amazing thing is the area took it quite well. Madeira beach typically floods but that did not happen this storm. This one was similar to ETA from 2020 in its track and strength which did flood the beach areas. I think the timing and height of the tide levels had a lot to do with that not happening. Just reporting the good news and thankful the damage wasn’t that bad overall here.

[Steve]

Is it just me, or does this look like its getting awfully close to the coast? It's not supposed to be this far east until Tues. 2pm

Yeah kind of. Mesoscales are running on TT - I didn’t look for them elsewhere. Some hint of getting to the coast and riding it slow before coming off for a day or so and going back in. But it looks like a bunch of coastal areas have a shot at the north, west and south side of the center of circulation. And some people gonna get hit for hours and hours while it’s on the coast.

[Vdogg]

AF308 is flying..

https://i.imgur.com/yTjqTjC.jpeg

I'm confused. I thought they didn't fly when a storm is over land?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is it just me, or does this look like its getting awfully close to the coast? It's not supposed to be this far east until Tues. 2pm

Yeah kind of. Mesoscales are running on TT - I didn’t look for them elsewhere. Some hint of getting to the coast and riding it slow before coming off for a day or so and going back in. But it looks like a bunch of coastal areas have a shot at the north, west and south side of the center of circulation. And some people gonna get hit for hours and hours while it’s on the coast.

JB has been saying this would move to the coast quicker and go further out. So far it looks like he is getting this right