ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

Recon pass (NE eyewall)

Minimum extrapolated pressure: 937.3 mb
Maximum FL winds: 151 kt
Maximum SFMR: 118 kt

Thats close, if not a 5 ( not counting SFMR apparently those are flagged)

They don't even put that much weight on sfmr for top end systems anymore. Use to in 2005 but it was called into question...They'll go with flight level and the drop in pressure. IF this strengthen 5-6 mb's with the 151 knot flight level wind I'd say it is deserving.

[Teban54]

FWIW, Emily was also upgraded to Cat 5 during post-season analysis.

[KirbyDude25]

Not sure if the recon observations support 135 knots or 140. The next pass will be useful to see if this is weakening, strengthening, or holding steady. If the next center pass is weaker, then I think that supports a retroactive category 5 peak. I expect Beryl's post-season analysis to be one of this season's most highly anticipated.

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF forecast a low of 938 MB so Beryl was stronger than forecast yet again.

[typhoonty]

I’m pretty confident operationally, NHC goes 135 kts. They typically don’t assign a 5 unless it’s a slam dunk. It’s a “shame” because I think if SFMR didn’t break it would’ve blended to a 5. Decent candidate for a postseason upgrade if they don’t get another pass before it weakens further imo.!it clearly peaked between missions.

[HurricaneRyan]

The Emily 2005 analog is so spot on. But worse.

Also reminds me of Dean.

[MarioProtVI]

Recon pass (NE eyewall)

Minimum extrapolated pressure: 937.3 mb
Maximum FL winds: 151 kt
Maximum SFMR: 118 kt

Thats close, if not a 5 ( not counting SFMR apparently those are flagged)

They don't even put that much weight on sfmr for top end systems anymore. Use to in 2005 but it was called into question...They'll go with flight level and the drop in pressure. IF this strengthen 5-6 mb's with the 151 knot flight level wind I'd say it is deserving.

151 kt FL isn’t enough though, as that rounds off to 135.9 kt. So it’s 99% likely they go with 135 kt at 8. I don’t expect a TCR upgrade either, as Sam proved NHC doesn’t really put weight into between-recon peaks despite evidence pointing to a higher intensity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde shows 140 knots on the surface...

I'd say that plus flight level winds supports 140 knots.

[ljmac75]

Look at that dropsonde! That's pretty impressive.

[aspen]

Thats close, if not a 5 ( not counting SFMR apparently those are flagged)

They don't even put that much weight on sfmr for top end systems anymore. Use to in 2005 but it was called into question...They'll go with flight level and the drop in pressure. IF this strengthen 5-6 mb's with the 151 knot flight level wind I'd say it is deserving.

151 kt FL isn’t enough though, as that rounds off to 135.9 kt. So it’s 99% likely they go with 135 kt at 8. I don’t expect a TCR upgrade either, as Sam proved NHC doesn’t really put weight into between-recon peaks despite evidence pointing to a higher intensity.

The NHC refuses to extrapolate peak intensity of borderline Cat 5s in gaps between recon. They need irrefutable evidence to make a post-season upgrade, like Michael’s radar estimates and wind damage, or Ian’s brief super high FL winds.

Perhaps the Cat 5 SFMR winds from the previous flight, combined with structural improvements between flights, could be enough for a post-season upgrade. Still, it’s very frustrating seeing unfortunately timed recon flights just barely miss a Cat 5 peak and then we spend 10 months debating over whether or not it’s 135 kt or 140 kt lol

[Hurrilurker]

Of course it’s a borderline case a few hours after peak lol.

Yeah it looked nearly perfect a short while ago. Still probably borderline but on the 5 side. Feel bad for all the folks on those small islands, they got hit with a high end Cat 4 that was still strengthening.

[Hurrilurker]

They need budget for 2 more planes and pilots so they can get regular recon on these without gaps.

[NotoSans]

Center dropsonde says 938mb (940mb/23kt).

[Beef Stew]

I don't think this pass validates an upgrade past 135 kts at the present, and the NHC may even keep it at 130. However, I strongly believe this was easily a category 5 earlier this afternoon.

[ElectricStorm]

I'd go 135kts/938mb for now, with a potential post season upgrade showing 140kts a few hours ago

[Cpav54]

I think that they might upgrade it but if they don’t, it will likely be 135 knots.

[Beef Stew]

They need budget for 2 more planes and pilots so they can get regular recon on these without gaps.

One day I hope to see drones continuously flying storm missions when manned recon can't be present. But that being said, I never want to see the entire recon program switched over to drones! Huge fan of our hurricane hunters.

[Cpav54]

We’ll see soon though

[Beef Stew]

Up to 155.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, DANGEROUS WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 63.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

Ignore this it didn't update yet when I copied it