ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Center is on the east side of the convection due to easterly shear. I noticed that the consensus models (TVCC/TVCN) have trended farther south in the 12Z update. Models indicate it could get close to hurricane strength as it passes Barbados, but all models indicate weakening by the time it passes south of Jamaica next Wednesday. There are also indications of a south of due west track beyond day 5, which would take the center into Honduras or Belize next Friday. I don't see any significant threat to the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/supercane7/status/1806681829270868355

[Stratton23]

Still early in the game, the gulf coast needs to be watching carefully, we really wont know where this will head until it likely reaches the western caribbean in a week

[NDG]

Lots of uncertainty beyond the 4 day range. Does it stay stronger in the Caribbean, gains latitude and crashes over the Greater Antilles to weaken it and get weakened further by a TUTT in place by then or does it track further south gets the effects of the low level jet of the central Caribbean to move quickly across the Caribbean into C.A.
But in the short term the Windward Islands need to prepare for an unusual possible hurricane for this time of the year.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1806681035041804612

[Category5Kaiju]

Wikipedia does a great job with illustrating this in their "Tropical cyclones of 'insert year'" pages, but every year, there normally seems to be at least one significant tropical cyclone that forms during any given month in the world, but especially June-November. This June, only one storm, Alberto, has formed. No EPAC or WPAC systems even. Based on this general pattern, I'd have to imagine that whatever comes out of 95L will be the "flagbearer" sort of speak for June 2024.

[cycloneye]

The 12z surface analysis has Developing Gale.

[wxman57]

Where is NHC's 12Z best track location and intensity? I want to see if they initialized it at 30 or 35 kts

[South Texas Storms]

Where is NHC's 12Z best track location and intensity? I want to see if they initialized it at 30 or 35 kts

From Tropical Tidbits:

Invest 95L
As of 12:00 UTC Jun 28, 2024:

Location: 8.9°N 39.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt

[kevin]

The 14:30 UTC ASCAT pass shows a closed circulation with multiple 30 - 35 kt barbs, seems sufficient for an upgrade to a 30 kt TD imo.

[zzzh]

The 14:30 UTC ASCAT pass shows a closed circulation with multiple 30 - 35 kt barbs, seems sufficient for an upgrade to a 30 kt TD imo.

Where did you see that? This morning's ascat missed the system.

[GCANE]

LLC is now back under the anti-cyclone.
Shear less than 10 knts,
Small hot towers popping

[wxman57]

Found NHC's best track for 95L

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952024.dat

[kevin]

ASCAT images. Upon closer inspection only 25 - 30 kt barbs, not 30 - 35 kt, but I assume that's simply because it's not a direct hit of the system. Or is that area in the upper-right corner not 95L?

[Ubuntwo]

ASCAT images. Upon closer inspection only 25 - 30 kt barbs, not 30 - 35 kt, but I assume that's simply because it's not a direct hit of the system. But the upper image does clearly show the structural improvement compared to yesterday's ASCAT pass. Or is that area in the upper-right corner not 95L?

https://i.imgur.com/lYVpodw.png

https://i.imgur.com/o5WndXF.png

The dates on this ASCAT product are a little deceiving. The time at the top-right is the time retrieved, not time of the pass itself. Those are located along the bottom of the plot in purple text: 23:34 UTC, so this is yesterday's pass.

[kevin]

ASCAT images. Upon closer inspection only 25 - 30 kt barbs, not 30 - 35 kt, but I assume that's simply because it's not a direct hit of the system. But the upper image does clearly show the structural improvement compared to yesterday's ASCAT pass. Or is that area in the upper-right corner not 95L?

https://i.imgur.com/lYVpodw.png

https://i.imgur.com/o5WndXF.png

The dates on this ASCAT product are a little deceiving. The time at the top-right is the time retrieved, not time of the pass itself. Those are located along the bottom of the plot in purple text: 23:34 UTC, so this is yesterday's pass.

A yes I see it now as well, thanks.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicsWatch/status/1806702668456374402

[Nuno]

I would imagine this gets an upgrade at 5pm? Looks incredibly well organized out there.

[3090]

Center is on the east side of the convection due to easterly shear. I noticed that the consensus models (TVCC/TVCN) have trended farther south in the 12Z update. Models indicate it could get close to hurricane strength as it passes Barbados, but all models indicate weakening by the time it passes south of Jamaica next Wednesday. There are also indications of a south of due west track beyond day 5, which would take the center into Honduras or Belize next Friday. I don't see any significant threat to the Gulf.

Depends on its actual track, when it enters the Caribbean. A southerly track, it will intensify and move more quickly into CA. A northerly track, it will get sheared by the developing TUTT and will end up a naked swirl, probably entering the Yucatan channel. Beyond the CA possibility, or the YC possibility, time frame wise, is just purely speculative at this point. ANY GOM development, or no development, beyond 5-6 days, is NOT on the table at the moment.