ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Global models suck at mesoscale convective forecasting.
I think they will miss the convection along the southern shore of Cuba working the mid-level vort down to the surface.

[MGC]

I'm hedging my bets on the convective blob on the north side of Cuba. 97L still moving kind of fast so it will have trouble closing off until closer to Florida. I think TC will eventually develop and track further west than current models indicate.....MGC

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1819355060016648238

[wxman57]

Have very little time. I have 35kt TS into Tampa Bay in 48 hrs. NHC better get that PTC advisory going.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1819330196232618175

[REDHurricane]

Global models suck at mesoscale convective forecasting.
I think they will miss the convection along the southern shore of Cuba working the mid-level vort down to the surface.

Yeah I agree. Current vorticity map supports this as well, with the stronger 500mb vort sitting right in the middle between Cuba & Jamaica and the somewhat weaker 925mb vort noticeably north and a bit to the east. Shear environment is also much more favorable to Cuba's south than to its north so it would make sense for the convection to favor that area while these conditions persist

[tolakram]

Wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some sort of center developing south of Cuba.

A lot of convection firing off here.

https://i.imgur.com/lkQpukC.jpeg

This could be huge since both GEFS and EPS are initializing the system pretty significantly to the north; neither ensemble has any members showing that the current CoC is just off the coast of SE Cuba. I'm guessing that a nasty Gulf storm gets more probable the further to the south it stays and thus the more time it will have to take advantage of the boiling Gulf but who knows anymore with this setup, almost nothing would really surprise me at this point

https://i.ibb.co/VgHL1Xx/Screen-Shot-2024-08-02-at-6-17-17-AM.png

https://i.ibb.co/njvTqFy/Screen-Shot-2024-08-02-at-6-18-42-AM.png

I think both GFS and Euro vorticity plots show this, with the Euro showing a bit more vorticity south of Cuba before it gets dragged over it. Once of the reasons the Euro is on the weaker side in my amateur opinion.

[DunedinDave]

Tampa may get lucky here in terms of speed. It’s chugging fast where as a couple of days ago it looked like a crawling system sitting right off their coast dumping rain and getting stronger which was a nightmare scenario. I don’t see any models doing that anymore.

I just don’t know if this has time to develop enough. Seems like a lot of the major models signaling it just moving though Florida as nothing more than a depression. HWRF does ramp it up quickly between the Keys and Tampa to a TS.

That said, it will be a soaking for the Tampa area.

[Subtrop]

AL, 04, 2024080212, , BEST, 0, 206N, 756W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011, TRANSITIONED, alA72024 to al042024,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 042024.dat

[cycloneye]

AL, 04, 2024080212, , BEST, 0, 206N, 756W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011, TRANSITIONED, alA72024 to al042024,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 042024.dat

Best Track changes to PTC Four at 11 AM.

[tropicwatch]

Moisture currently moving west in the Gulf of Mexico. Might delay a northern turn until that changes.

[Subtrop]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over Eastern Cuba, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

[Jr0d]

I agree with this. We will likely see tropical conditions tomorrow here in the Keys as most models suggest this will quickly consolidate over the Florida Straits within 36 hours likely bringing storm conditions by tomorrow.

I expect at least a tropical storm watch to be posted over the Florida Keys at the 11am update.

I do think this will catch people off guard tomorrow down here in the Keys. There is a reason why advisories are issued when tropical storm conditions are likely or expected.

[toad strangler]

Moisture currently moving west in the Gulf of Mexico. Might delay a northern turn until that changes.
https://tropicwatch.info/moisturewest080220241300z.gif

The short wave trough that will be digging down into the SE US should be the mechanism to lift 97L up to the N. Depicted here in the 6z GFS. The oz Euro shows a very similar solution as well at about hour 36,

[Jr0d]

Tampa may get lucky here in terms of speed. It’s chugging fast where as a couple of days ago it looked like a crawling system sitting right off their coast dumping rain and getting stronger which was a nightmare scenario. I don’t see any models doing that anymore.

I just don’t know if this has time to develop enough. Seems like a lot of the major models signaling it just moving though Florida as nothing more than a depression. HWRF does ramp it up quickly between the Keys and Tampa to a TS.

That said, it will be a soaking for the Tampa area.

While not always the best for these systems, several meso scale models like the NAM show this becoming organized quickly tomorrow once it starts pushing north of Cuba. If it remains over water , I think a high end tropical storm is likely for the west coast of Florida.

Edit.. Autocorrect doesn't like meso

[Sciencerocks]

[StPeteMike]

Moisture currently moving west in the Gulf of Mexico. Might delay a northern turn until that changes.
https://tropicwatch.info/moisturewest080220241300z.gif

Watching it over and over again, it’s hard for me to not think the center will be more south of the Cuba Coastline than what is being depicted. Looks like low will exit into the Gulf of Guacanayabo, moving W to WNW.

Of course, it’s my untrained eye and I could be incorrect.

[ConvergenceZone]

So very happy that this won't have much time to organize. Yesterday we were unsure, but a weak tropical storm as wxman pointed out looks the most likely scenario.

[skillz305]

Central Florida is ready for the rain event - hopefully doesn’t produce many if any tornados

[Stormlover70]

Have very little time. I have 35kt TS into Tampa Bay in 48 hrs. NHC better get that PTC advisory going.

How much rain for me they are saying 10 inches