ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

AL, 05, 2024081218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 566W, 35, 1008, TS,

Ernesto

[Hurricane2022]

35 kt/1009 mb sounds a good estimate to me. Tropical Storm Ernesto is here.

[Hurricane2022]

AL, 05, 2024081218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 566W, 35, 1008, TS,

Ernesto

Of course

[Category5Kaiju]

So if Ernesto sticks to its predicted track, then that makes it 5 consecutive storms this season to make landfall as a TC. Yikes.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Interestingly, if Ernesto tracks further east, the warmest waters he may encounter could be in the subtropics (30-35N).

[zzzh]

The lowest pressure is on the SE side, means that there is tilt.

[hipshot]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/sst_natl.png

Interestingly, if Ernesto tracks further east, the warmest waters he may encounter could be in the subtropics (30-35N).

Don't you mean further west??

[WaveBreaking]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/sst_natl.png

Interestingly, if Ernesto tracks further east, the warmest waters he may encounter could be in the subtropics (30-35N).

Don't you mean further west??

They mean if Ernesto curves further east past Bermuda into that warm blob of SSTS at 35N and between 50W and 60W.

[FrontRunner]

https://i.imgur.com/9Jt2MOH.png
The lowest pressure is on the SE side, means that there is tilt.

Has the plane picked up any meaningful west/northwest winds yet? I haven't seen them on any of the posted graphics, but I admit that I didn't look through the raw data in detail.

[Nimbus]

The low level vort is racing almost due west, convection burst was behind it so definitely some shear.
Needs to slow and build a CDO so it can gain some latitude..

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/9Jt2MOH.png
The lowest pressure is on the SE side, means that there is tilt.

Has the plane picked up any meaningful west/northwest winds yet? I haven't seen them on any of the posted graphics, but I admit that I didn't look through the raw data in detail.

There are. But the structure is still a mess.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Ernesto is going to be a very large tropical storm.

[weeniepatrol]

We've seen this story many times. It's racing along like its wife is in labor at 26 mph. It will not organize appreciably until it decelerates. So... will remain sheared until the ridge weakens IMO.

That being said, still looks to become a hurricane, perhaps a powerful one. It's going to be a big boy, too.

[Sciencerocks]

[wwizard]

So if Ernesto sticks to its predicted track, then that makes it 5 consecutive storms this season to make landfall as a TC. Yikes.

At least it won’t be a 5th consecutive Gulf landfall.

[Travorum]

19Z microwave pass:

[zzzh]

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

[weeniepatrol]

This looks like a WPAC system

[aspen]

We've seen this story many times. It's racing along like its wife is in labor at 26 mph. It will not organize appreciably until it decelerates. So... will remain sheared until the ridge weakens IMO.

That being said, still looks to become a hurricane, perhaps a powerful one. It's going to be a big boy, too.

The slowdown looks to start sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening, so that’s the earliest I expect Ernesto to start putting itself together and strengthening at a more rapid pace.

[WaveBreaking]

Ernesto’s circulation is so large that it is pulling convection over the Amazon rainforest towards its center.