ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rail Dawg]

Was in the Cat 5 Michael inner eyewall at landfall back in 2018.

185 mph gusts while in a parking lot garage.

There is no way to capture on film just how incredibly powerful these winds are.

We talked before about the most destructive force in a hurricane... something now called the "Fist of God".

Have heard and seen them twice. In Michael and Cat 4 Irma in Naples.

You will hear what sounds like a fighter jet overhead and a few moments later a "fist" of energy comes down and complete destroys everything it touches.

They are the most powerful gusts and must be something like a tornado that has been twisted sideways.

It was incredibly loud and the destruction they cause is amazing.

Chuck

[wxman57]

All models do indicate significant weakening on Wednesday prior to landfall. Should be a larger storm after an expected ERC later today/tonight. Landfall in the Bradenton/Sarasota area near sunset Wed. Probably Cat 3. With dry air and shear impacting at landfall, we may see a situation similar to Francine and Helene where sustained wind is lower than expected but wind gusts are 100+ mph. Could potentially be the strongest hurricane to hit there from the southeast since an unnamed Cat 3 struck on Oct 12, 1944. This one won't be a grazing event. It better leave Disney World alone! We head there in 2 weeks.

[Beef Stew]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Milton's churning of the waters itself will probably cool the waters a bit. However, this effect may actually be reduced because Milton's unusually moving west to east. The net movement of water at depth is 90 degrees to the right of the direction of the wind, so in this case the water is driven southward towards the Yucatan coast, resulting in downwelling rather than upwelling. Thus, the water that replaces the churned up waters may come from the north rather than from the cooler ocean depths.

The first winds would be from the south and approach from the west. With the particular dynamics of the shallow bank north of Yucatan this would increase the cold upwelling. The upwelling is caused by the Loop Current pulling the surface waters away from the Peninsula. Something has to fill that void so cooler water from GOM depth replaces it. Milton's south winds on its east quadrant should increase that pulling of surface waters away from Yucatan by adding a pulling force to the west side in addition to the Loop Current on the east side and increase the upwelling.

I might be talking out my blind side here but I'm sensing Milton is starting to zone southwards on the models.

This is the opinion of an internet amateur and should not be used for important decisions. Refer to the Nation Hurricane Center for hurricane information.

If Milton slides more southward towards the Yucatan, which is certainly looking plausible, I have a hard time imagining that there isn't going to be disruption to it. That may be the only thing that can disrupt strengthening in the short-term. We'll have to see.

[Blinhart]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Milton's churning of the waters itself will probably cool the waters a bit. However, this effect may actually be reduced because Milton's unusually moving west to east. The net movement of water at depth is 90 degrees to the right of the direction of the wind, so in this case the water is driven southward towards the Yucatan coast, resulting in downwelling rather than upwelling. Thus, the water that replaces the churned up waters may come from the north rather than from the cooler ocean depths.

The first winds would be from the south and approach from the west. With the particular dynamics of the shallow bank north of Yucatan this would increase the cold upwelling. The upwelling is caused by the Loop Current pulling the surface waters away from the Peninsula. Something has to fill that void so cooler water from GOM depth replaces it. Milton's south winds on its east quadrant should increase that pulling of surface waters away from Yucatan by adding a pulling force to the west side in addition to the Loop Current on the east side and increase the upwelling.

I might be talking out my blind side here but I'm sensing Milton is starting to zone southwards on the models.

This is the opinion of an internet amateur and should not be used for important decisions. Refer to the Nation Hurricane Center for hurricane information.

The water is warm very deep so upwelling won't be much of an issue.

[otowntiger]

Since this thing will be getting pretty close (closer than previously forecast) to the Yucatán- what are the chances that it gets close enough to cause some deterioration of the circulation and also gulp in some dry air like what happened with Helene and therefore either weaken it and keep it from otherwise reaching its full potential in the gulf prior to hitting the forecasted increase in shear?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton's only limiting factor right now is the maximum potential the water can support. I can count on my hand how often I've seen that - Wilma and Rita are the only ones offhand.

[zal0phus]

Symmetrical eye starting to clear, this is probably the best Milton has looked so far.

https://i.imgur.com/B2S7cOG.jpeg

Getting serious Otis vibes right now....with a touch of Eta.

Unfortunately, there's a legitimate and increasing chance that Milton may be:

• Delta but without being interrupted by shear
• Eta but actually having the intensity match satellite estimates
• Wilma but without weakening to as much as a Cat 1 before US landfall
• Patricia and Rita but affecting a far denser area
• Katrina but actually going sub-900

And of course it had to have List 4's goofiest name.

[Kingarabian]

Eye temp down to -24C.

[TampaWxLurker]

All models do indicate significant weakening on Wednesday prior to landfall. Should be a larger storm after an expected ERC later today/tonight. Landfall in the Bradenton/Sarasota area near sunset Wed. Probably Cat 3. With dry air and shear impacting at landfall, we may see a situation similar to Francine and Helene where sustained wind is lower than expected but wind gusts are 100+ mph. Could potentially be the strongest hurricane to hit there from the southeast since an unnamed Cat 3 struck on Oct 12, 1944. This one won't be a grazing event. It better leave Disney World alone! We head there in 2 weeks.

Some models are showing a hard right hook shortly after landfall where it heads almost due east. Do you buy that solution or do you see it continuing northeast across the state?

[Beef Stew]

Milton's only limiting factor right now is the maximum potential the water can support. I can count on my hand how often I've seen that - Wilma and Rita are the only ones offhand.

Beryl did the same

[Teban54]

Milton's only limiting factor right now is the maximum potential the water can support. I can count on my hand how often I've seen that - Wilma and Rita are the only ones offhand.

Beryl did the same

IIRC, Beryl actually outperformed the MPI, which didn't show a Cat 5.

[Beef Stew]

Symmetrical eye starting to clear, this is probably the best Milton has looked so far.

https://i.imgur.com/B2S7cOG.jpeg

Getting serious Otis vibes right now....with a touch of Eta.

Unfortunately, there's a legitimate and increasing chance that Milton may be:

• Delta but without being interrupted by shear
• Eta but actually having the intensity match satellite estimates
• Wilma but without weakening to as much as a Cat 1 before US landfall
• Patricia and Rita but affecting a far denser area
• Katrina but actually going sub-900

For what it's worth, Wilma was certainly not a category 1 at landfall...

[aspen]

I’m willing to bet recon finds a Cat 5 next pass. 932-936 mbar extrapolated, 150-155 kt peak FL.

[Category5Kaiju]

Kind of like Katrina, Wilma, Patricia, Irma, and Maria, Milton looks likely to become one of those storms that wx people relentlessly compare future storms with, accurately or inaccurately. That's when you know you're witnessing a historic event.

[Teban54]

Getting serious Otis vibes right now....with a touch of Eta.

Unfortunately, there's a legitimate and increasing chance that Milton may be:

• Delta but without being interrupted by shear
• Eta but actually having the intensity match satellite estimates
• Wilma but without weakening to as much as a Cat 1 before US landfall
• Patricia and Rita but affecting a far denser area
• Katrina but actually going sub-900

For what it's worth, Wilma was certainly not a category 1 at landfall...

I meant going through a Cat 1 phase (and affecting Mexico) before reintensifying to a Cat 3. As bad as Wilma was for SFL, it could have been worse without that interruption and if it kept "882 mb-level surge" and brought it all the way to Florida.

[Beef Stew]

Milton's only limiting factor right now is the maximum potential the water can support. I can count on my hand how often I've seen that - Wilma and Rita are the only ones offhand.

Beryl did the same

IIRC, Beryl actually outperformed the MPI, which didn't show a Cat 5.

Depends on the specific map, but yeah. Beryl certainly pushed what seemed to be possible for MPI to the limit and then some, if it peaked at 150 kts/175 mph as I suspect, and raw recon data suggested.

[zzzh]

I’m willing to bet recon finds a Cat 5 next pass. 932-936 mbar extrapolated, 150-155 kt peak FL.

This is a SE-NW pass so winds will be lower than the SW pass. I'd say it's unlikely going to find cat 5 wind.

[TomballEd]

Milton's only limiting factor right now is the maximum potential the water can support. I can count on my hand how often I've seen that - Wilma and Rita are the only ones offhand.

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1843276722155991469

[Sciencerocks]

[Beef Stew]

Unfortunately, there's a legitimate and increasing chance that Milton may be:

• Delta but without being interrupted by shear
• Eta but actually having the intensity match satellite estimates
• Wilma but without weakening to as much as a Cat 1 before US landfall
• Patricia and Rita but affecting a far denser area
• Katrina but actually going sub-900

For what it's worth, Wilma was certainly not a category 1 at landfall...

I meant going through a Cat 1 phase (and affecting Mexico) before reintensifying to a Cat 3. As bad as Wilma was for SFL, it could have been worse without that interruption and if it kept "882 mb-level surge" and brought it all the way to Florida.

Ah, I understand. I do think there's an off-hand chance Milton brushes the coast of the northern Yucutan and disrupts itself significantly- there certainly seems to be a more substantial southern component than expected- but we'll just have to see how things pan out.