ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Abdullah]

In the last pass, the estimated pressure was 941 mbar and the recorded pressure was 945 mbar.

This pass with an estimated pressure of 934 mbar implies a true pressure around ~938 mbar.

Absurd deepening at the rate of -5 mbar / hour.

[KWT]

Will 11 AM be a Category 5 or a high-end Cat 4? And would they issue a special advisory for Cat 5 if it occurred shortly after?

Only imo 135kts but with a forecast of a peak of 145kts in 12hrs.

Honestly though this may well get down into the 910s or 900s, only perhaps Yucatan interference is going to stop that.

[Pasmorade]

Will 11 AM be a Category 5 or a high-end Cat 4? And would they issue a special advisory for Cat 5 if it occurred shortly after?

Probably the former. The special advisory stated that Milton had winds of 150mph. For the latter choice to occur, the Cat 5 winds that were recorded as it was upgraded, the winds recorded after, the increasing Dvorak signatures, and the satellite appearance would need to be thrown out.

[kevin]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 06/1800Z A. 07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0314A CYCLONE
C. 06/1530Z C. 06/1730Z
D. 22.9N 93.6W D. NA
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2100Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. FIX G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 07/0000Z A. 06/2330Z,07/0530Z
B. NOAA3 0414A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0514A CYCLONE
C. 06/2000Z C. 06/2100Z
D. 22.8N 93.0W D. 22.8N 93.0W
E. 06/2145Z TO 07/0345Z E. 06/2300Z TO 07/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX - NOAA 43
A. 07/1200Z A. 07/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0614A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 0714A CYCLONE
C. 07/0530Z C. 07/0800Z
D. NA D. 22.9N 91.6W
E. NA E. 07/0930Z TO 07/1530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT SEVEN - TEAL 73
A. 07/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0814A CYCLONE
C. 07/0915Z
D. 22.9N 91.6W
E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION

Does this mean that TEAL 73 will perform another mission and arrive at 1730z (roughly 3 hours from now)?

[Category5Kaiju]

Little unrelated interesting fact: if Milton attains Category 5 status, 2024 will be the first recorded Atlantic hurricane season to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes that also took on different gendered names. 2005 and 2017 were all female and 2007 and 2019 were all male. 1961 saw the 5th and 8th storms become Cat 5s but also used an all female naming list. And 1932 (4 and 14) and 1933 (8 and 14) would have been the same genders, assuming the current male-female naming scheme were to have been used then.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Current FL traffic

[LandoWill]

I know a lot of the gen z and women love dennis Phillips, but I'll stick with Paul Dellegatto, he was trained by the legend Roy Leep.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not seeing evidence Milton is a Category 5 quite yet but it's dang close. I'd go with 135 knots at 11am. That MSLP is dropping like a rock so if the satellite improves and no recon is present, they might pull the trigger.

[Xyls]

Assuming Milton gets C5... which I think is all but inevitable now. Are there any Category 5s on record which have been recorded moving west to east or will Milton be the first?

[Category5Kaiju]

Assuming Milton gets C5... which I think is all but inevitable now. Are there any Category 5s on record which have been recorded moving west to east or will Milton be the first?

Nope, this would be a first. At least specifically in the Gulf. Lenny got close at 155 mph, but that was in the Caribbean Sea

[TallyTracker]

Assuming Milton gets C5... which I think is all but inevitable now. Are there any Category 5s on record which have been recorded moving west to east or will Milton be the first?

Nope, this would be a first. At least specifically in the Gulf. Lenny got close at 155 mph, but that was in the Caribbean Sea

Michael was moving Northeast but that is the closest I am aware of. Some of the older hurricanes in the 1960s or before may have but I’ll leave it to some of our historical folks to let us know that.

[tolakram]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

i am still trying to figure out why they moved it north at 5am other than just to do so and be on the side of caution

Are you in Florida?

[Teban54]

Assuming Milton gets C5... which I think is all but inevitable now. Are there any Category 5s on record which have been recorded moving west to east or will Milton be the first?

The only thing that came remotely close was the 1932 Cuba hurricane, which had a tiny bit of an E component when it was moving north. Even then, "remotely" was an understatement.

[skillz305]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

i am still trying to figure out why they moved it north at 5am other than just to do so and be on the side of caution

Are you in Florida?

I am on the treasure coast yes

[Rail Dawg]

Florida traffic right now all green.

People wait to pull the trigger and then they all seem to push the panic button at the same time.

Watch what happens about 24 hours before landfall.

Chuck

[Xyls]

Assuming Milton gets C5... which I think is all but inevitable now. Are there any Category 5s on record which have been recorded moving west to east or will Milton be the first?

Nope, this would be a first. At least specifically in the Gulf. Lenny got close at 155 mph, but that was in the Caribbean Sea

Michael was moving Northeast but that is the closest I am aware of. Some of the older hurricanes in the 1960s or before may have but I’ll leave it to some of our historical folks to let us know that.

So I took a look through the Wikipedia list and there have been some mildly west-east tracks when there is a strong northerly component (Ian, Michael, 1924 Cuba) but as far as heading east if not south-east. Don't think there is any climatologically comparable storm. Lenny would be closest but against not in the same area and didn't reach Cat 5. May have to call this Wrong-Way Milton just like with Lenny lol.

[Teban54]

Looks like more appreciable eye clearing may have finally begun.

[Teban54]

Nope, this would be a first. At least specifically in the Gulf. Lenny got close at 155 mph, but that was in the Caribbean Sea

Michael was moving Northeast but that is the closest I am aware of. Some of the older hurricanes in the 1960s or before may have but I’ll leave it to some of our historical folks to let us know that.

So I took a look through the Wikipedia list and there have been some mildly west-east tracks when there is a strong northerly component (Ian, Michael, 1924 Cuba) but as far as heading east if not south-east. Don't think there is any climatologically comparable storm. Lenny would be closest but against not in the same area and didn't reach Cat 5. May have to call this Wrong-Way Milton just like with Lenny lol.

Wrong Lane Milton rhymes better Or Left Lane Milton?

[tolakram]

i am still trying to figure out why they moved it north at 5am other than just to do so and be on the side of caution

Are you in Florida?

I am on the treasure coast yes

Sorry, I meant that for LandoWill, I should have removed you from the quote.

[LandoWill]

Florida traffic right now all green.

People wait to pull the trigger and then they all seem to push the panic button at the same time.

Watch what happens about 24 hours before landfall.

Chuck

truth, I'm waiting till late afternoon to move things that could fly away, we always wait till the last second, it's just the way we live - if i could wait till tomorrow i would, but i already got "complained" to about it not being done over the weekend