ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Now the question is how Beryl deals with shear, or if it's big enough to modify the environment ahead of it.

https://i.imgur.com/NC5nJFJ.gif

That is the question, but I am noticing the shear zone backing away. It is not unheard of for intense storms like this to create their own environment and push shear out of the way

I am thinking Beryl will very possibly be one of these systems. Not only that, but I think people really shouldn't be looking more than 3 days out with the model right now for ideas on what Beryl is going to do. The models are having a REALLY hard time with this storm both intensity wise and even track wise at the moment.

I know everyone likes to compare Beryl and Emily but so far this storm actually more reminds me of Dennis which the models had a very hard time with both intensity and path in 2005 to from what I recall. I would assume more north than the models are saying. Depending on what the trough does that some models are seeing I would assume the U.S. would actually be the more likely landfall location the more intensity that Beryl manages to maintain. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should be preparing for a major hurricane.

Exactly what I was thinking, we won't know anything about where she will be going for another 3 days after she gets passed Jamaica.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know that only weather enthusiasts like ourselves on this board and those in the profession can appreciate and respect such a record being broken. , most of the rest of the world could care less. I told my girlfriend about it and she was like, "So"? lol.
Oh well, some people just don't get it.

[Blinhart]

what will beryl look like when it gets to texas and north mexico (that area)? I have relatives who live there

Right now we don't know if it will be going there, that is what everyone is saying.

[FireRat]

If I didn't know better, I'd say I'm looking at a WPac supertyphoon right now the way Beryl's structure looks.

2024 Atlantic thinks it is the WPAC

[psyclone]

I always thought of Dennis/Emily 05 as the ultimate early season insanity and still do..and they always stood out on their own but now this event gets the silver. What a crazy day to watch unfold. This system is small enough it could crater pretty fast if the shear monster attacks it. Hopefully for Jamaica's sake that happens.

[CrazyC83]

Remember also, there's a lot we don't know in the history books. Before the satellite era, there were likely a lot more storms that completely escaped the test of time.

[Blinhart]

I just don't want to see her go south of Jamaica, unfortunately for the US we need her to hit Jamaica, that way Cuba and Jamaica causes more loss of power. If she goes South of Jamaica she won't lose nearly as much energy. I also don't want to see her go through the Yucatan Channel, we need her to hit land to lose energy before she hits the Hot Tub of the Gulf of Mexico.

[5t0rmsguy]

Remember also, there's a lot we don't know in the history books. Before the satellite era, there were likely a lot more storms that completely escaped the test of time.

I always wonder about that, Imagine the mayans got hit by a huge hurricane even by our standards and we will never know about it

[FireRat]

Remember also, there's a lot we don't know in the history books. Before the satellite era, there were likely a lot more storms that completely escaped the test of time.

Very true, one such storm I've thought about today was the St. Lucia Hurricane of June 13, 1780. It reportedly killed over 4000 people, must've been incredibly powerful and quite a prelude to 1780.

Hopefully Beryl isn't a similar prelude to 2024!

[Cpv17]

I just don't want to see her go south of Jamaica, unfortunately for the US we need her to hit Jamaica, that way Cuba and Jamaica causes more loss of power. If she goes South of Jamaica she won't lose nearly as much energy. I also don't want to see her go through the Yucatan Channel, we need her to hit land to lose energy before she hits the Hot Tub of the Gulf of Mexico.

From what I understand, the Gulf is supposed to be unfavorable for development when she gets there.

[Astromanía]

I just don't want to see her go south of Jamaica, unfortunately for the US we need her to hit Jamaica, that way Cuba and Jamaica causes more loss of power. If she goes South of Jamaica she won't lose nearly as much energy. I also don't want to see her go through the Yucatan Channel, we need her to hit land to lose energy before she hits the Hot Tub of the Gulf of Mexico.

Beryl: anything else?

[MississippiWx]

The future of Beryl is very uncertain. Lots of factors with land interaction and shear. The shear will do a number on it, but how much remains to be seen. The global models nearly destroy it almost to nothing, but one has to wonder how much of that is the globals not resolving the extreme compact strength of the hurricane. Most global models initialize at 975mb or higher. As we know, Beryl is much lower. Critical next couple of days.

[Hurricane2022]

Recon is doing some strange things there. Will they continue the mission or not?

[Beef Stew]

Remember also, there's a lot we don't know in the history books. Before the satellite era, there were likely a lot more storms that completely escaped the test of time.

I always wonder about that, Imagine the mayans got hit by a huge hurricane even by our standards and we will never know about it

Think about the times before that... way before that. I can only imagine how strong some storms must've gotten in geologic eras with much more latent heat content than today... I'm sure there were storms in Panthalassa that made typhoon Tip look minuscule, and who knows what the dinosaurs saw make landfall along the coasts of the western anterior seaway...

Getting off topic a bit, but it always fascinates me to think about the true records of cyclones on this planet that we'll never know. But we'll work with what we have, and Beryl will occupy a page in our storm history.

[cheezyWXguy]

Beryl’s earlier buzz saw appearance is transitioning to more of a squashed avocado now. I doubt it will hold this intensity for more than a few more hours unless shear abates again, but that doesn’t seem likely.

[Xyls]

Beryl’s earlier buzz saw appearance is transitioning to more of a squashed avocado now. I doubt it will hold this intensity for more than a few more hours unless shear abates again, but that doesn’t seem likely.

Respect the avocado.

[LarryWx]

1) Jamaica H landfalls since 1950, the first two of which were very bad major H hits from the E

1951: Charlie (E to W)(MH)

1988: Gilbert (E to W)(MH)

2012: Sandy (S to N on E end)


2) Jamaica H close misses since 1950: Ivan and Dean very bad hits passing just S:

1950: King (W)

1964: Cleo (N)

1974: Carmen (S)

1980: Allen (N)

2001: Iris (S)

2004: Charley (S) and Ivan (S)(very bad hit)

2005: Dennis (NE)

2007: Dean (S)(very bad hit)

[Craters]

Remember also, there's a lot we don't know in the history books. Before the satellite era, there were likely a lot more storms that completely escaped the test of time.

I always wonder about that, Imagine the mayans got hit by a huge hurricane even by our standards and we will never know about it

Think about the times before that... way before that. I can only imagine how strong some storms must've gotten in geologic eras with much more latent heat content than today... I'm sure there were storms in Panthalassa that made typhoon Tip look minuscule, and who knows what the dinosaurs saw make landfall along the coasts of the western anterior seaway...

Getting off topic a bit, but it always fascinates me to think about the true records of cyclones on this planet that we'll never know. But we'll work with what we have, and Beryl will occupy a page in our storm history.

At the risk of getting this deleted by our conscientious mods (but where else would we put it so interested Storm2K'ers could see it? ), there's this: https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/hurricane-from-hell

[MississippiWx]

Recon just did another pass. Could argue that Beryl is still strengthening with an extrapolated pressure down to 931mb.

[CrazyC83]

Last pass also had multiple locations supporting cat 5 intensity, with cat 4+ winds in all quads.

Based on earlier data and trends, 145 kt seems like a good intensity estimate.