ATL: DEBBY - Models

[BobHarlem]

18z icon is a little stronger, slower, and further to the left with landfall compared to 12z. Exits to the Atlantic near brunswick, GA and rides close to the Georgia coast northward and stalls just offshore nearish to Tybee Island and Hilton Head. Would be quite a bit of flooding for Savannah, and not good for Hilton Head and Tybee either.




18z Icon Run ends with a cat 2 landfall on Hilton Head Island

[MetroMike]

Just noticed late this afternoon on the T.T. site there is no HWRF model for 04 being run. Why is this?

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS landfall left of 12z and a bit later

[Stratton23]

GFS incorrectly initialized where the center is, and that does matter in the long term, i expect the GFS to adjust more westward over time

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS Landfall around Wilmington, NC to Jacksonville, NC


Goes over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod on this run also.

[Steve]

Just noticed late this afternoon on the T.T. site there is no HWRF model for 04 being run. Why is this?

Not sure. They ran the HAFS A and B at 12z. That model is the future. But they did run HWRF and HMON with previous storms this year so they’ll probably start at 00z

https://wpo.noaa.gov/the-hurricane-anal ... stem-hafs/

https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024/05/ ... e-eye.html

[MetroMike]

Just noticed late this afternoon on the T.T. site there is no HWRF model for 04 being run. Why is this?

Not sure. They ran the HAFS A and B at 12z. That model is the future. But they did run HWRF and HMON with previous storms this year so they’ll probably start at 00z

https://wpo.noaa.gov/the-hurricane-anal ... stem-hafs/

https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024/05/ ... e-eye.html

Ok just rather odd as there are some Pacific ones being modeled there but 04 was dropped.
Changes are occurring indeed.

[USTropics]

Last 3 GFS ensemble runs:

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS is still showing a group of members stalling, looping and getting back into the gulf again

[MetroMike]

The further west this goes into the Gulf there is an increasing chance it will stall out or just mill around according to Dr Cowen's latest update.

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z HWRF just started coming in on Tidbits. Interesting how the first few frames show the center coming off the S Coast of Cuba, and then by 12Z Saturday, a center reforms to the N in the FL Straits.

[StormPyrate]

Here in Clearwater I hope it comes in here.
Spares the folks north of us, who have had their share of late, and if its just a TS we should be able to weather that

[BobHarlem]

0z earlies looks shifted left up to the Big Bend. (And use the init point discussed in the other thread)

[StPeteMike]

Considering she seems to be getting together south of where they initialize her and she still seems moving more west than north, while they have a good NW trajectory, I can see more time over water and a more NE turn into the Big Bend area than the NNE in that run.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't think anything before 00z has the initialization correct.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Considering she seems to be getting together south of where they initialize her and she still seems moving more west than north, while they have a good NW trajectory, I can see more time over water and a more NE turn into the Big Bend area than the NNE in that run.

Heading for the skinny part of Cuba. If it swings that far west...it is certainly missing the shortwave. What is to pull it east?

[Nimbus]

Slowdown over north Florida with the 00Z runs is concerning, long wind exposures and rain are not a good mix.
New burst of convection seems to verify the 00z model initialization so Tampa area may have lucked out.

[DunedinDave]

Slowdown over north Florida with the 00Z runs is concerning, long wind exposures and rain are not a good mix.
New burst of convection seems to verify the 00z model initialization so Tampa area may have lucked out.

Tampa and the words “luck out” happen way too often with hurricanes. Crazy.

[robbielyn]

Slowdown over north Florida with the 00Z runs is concerning, long wind exposures and rain are not a good mix.
New burst of convection seems to verify the 00z model initialization so Tampa area may have lucked out.

Tampa and the words “luck out” happen way too often with hurricanes. Crazy.

Yeah they don’t like us.

[Steve]

NAM 12k with the west shift coming up 150-200 miles farther up the coast from 18z. Maybe still a hair east of where it hits?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 300&fh=318

FV3 still running but possibly heading for the eastern panhandle or big bend. Its range doesn’t kick in until a bit north of 25.