ATL: HELENE - Models

[Cat5James]

Here are the last 4 GFS Runs. Eastern shifts continue. Getting a little uneasy here in Tampa area... This is wayyy to close for comfort. Especially when you think about all the storms that trended right of track... Charley, Ian, Irma, etc...

https://i.imgur.com/cLh9LnO.gif

This GFS run is already bad news for Tampa Bay due to angle of approach, and any further East shifts are going to be devastating if they verify.

[jlauderdal]

Here are the last 4 GFS Runs. Eastern shifts continue. Getting a little uneasy here in Tampa area... This is wayyy to close for comfort. Especially when you think about all the storms that trended right of track... Charley, Ian, Irma, etc...

https://i.imgur.com/cLh9LnO.gif

This GFS run is already bad news for Tampa Bay due to angle of approach, and any further East shifts are going to be devastating if they verify.

Even if it shifts south of tampa, they are still in big trouble on these runs, lets see. St Marks to Naples, I thought I would be carving off the south by now but instead expanded from fort meyers, these intense systems want to stay to the right. Newbies: do not ever discount storm surge, its easily the most dangerous part of a hurricane. You want stick around for a 5 with no surge, go for it, stay low. You have storm surge predicted, get away.

[dizzyfish]

Here are the last 4 GFS Runs. Eastern shifts continue. Getting a little uneasy here in Tampa area... This is wayyy to close for comfort. Especially when you think about all the storms that trended right of track... Charley, Ian, Irma, etc...

https://i.imgur.com/cLh9LnO.gif

This GFS run is already bad news for Tampa Bay due to angle of approach, and any further East shifts are going to be devastating if they verify.

Even if it shifts south of tampa, they are still in big trouble on these runs, lets see. St Marks to Naples, I thought I would be carving off the south by now but instead expanded from fort meyers, these intense systems want to stay to the right. Newbies: do not ever discount storm surge, its easily the most dangerous part of a hurricane. You want stick around for a 5 with no surge, go for it, stay low. You have storm surge predicted, get away.

100%! RUN from the water (surge) HIDE from the wind. That being said I'm at 28.3 Lat and 82.66 Long and I'm scared. Don't know whether to start the day moving all my stuff in and tying the chicken coop down or wait until tomorrow.

[Kohlecane]

I'm becoming concerned here near Hilton Head, been keeping eyes on this ever since the AI model was showing somthing being pulled through FL,

[StPeteMike]

This GFS run is already bad news for Tampa Bay due to angle of approach, and any further East shifts are going to be devastating if they verify.

Even if it shifts south of tampa, they are still in big trouble on these runs, lets see. St Marks to Naples, I thought I would be carving off the south by now but instead expanded from fort meyers, these intense systems want to stay to the right. Newbies: do not ever discount storm surge, its easily the most dangerous part of a hurricane. You want stick around for a 5 with no surge, go for it, stay low. You have storm surge predicted, get away.

100%! RUN from the water (surge) HIDE from the wind. That being said I'm at 28.3 Lat and 82.66 Long and I'm scared. Don't know whether to start the day moving all my stuff in and tying the chicken coop down or wait until tomorrow.

If you are pretty quick moving, tomorrow would be best.

Really hoping this thing can figure itself out and became a TD today so we can let the models do their thing. Just messaged my coworker and she has no idea of the east shift in the models overnight closer to our area. It’s unnerving that we are 3/4 days before landfall and we’re not 100% sure yet. Trying to evacuate the coastal areas of Pinellas in 2 days would be nightmarish.

[underthwx]

This GFS run is already bad news for Tampa Bay due to angle of approach, and any further East shifts are going to be devastating if they verify.

Even if it shifts south of tampa, they are still in big trouble on these runs, lets see. St Marks to Naples, I thought I would be carving off the south by now but instead expanded from fort meyers, these intense systems want to stay to the right. Newbies: do not ever discount storm surge, its easily the most dangerous part of a hurricane. You want stick around for a 5 with no surge, go for it, stay low. You have storm surge predicted, get away.

100%! RUN from the water (surge) HIDE from the wind. That being said I'm at 28.3 Lat and 82.66 Long and I'm scared. Don't know whether to start the day moving all my stuff in and tying the chicken coop down or wait until tomorrow.

Prepare for any eventuality my friend...and remain vigilant...and informed......do what you feel you need to do....get prepared today...then try to relax....

[kevin]

06z HAFS-B has 904 mb in 3 days.

[jlauderdal]

This GFS run is already bad news for Tampa Bay due to angle of approach, and any further East shifts are going to be devastating if they verify.

Even if it shifts south of tampa, they are still in big trouble on these runs, lets see. St Marks to Naples, I thought I would be carving off the south by now but instead expanded from fort meyers, these intense systems want to stay to the right. Newbies: do not ever discount storm surge, its easily the most dangerous part of a hurricane. You want stick around for a 5 with no surge, go for it, stay low. You have storm surge predicted, get away.

100%! RUN from the water (surge) HIDE from the wind. That being said I'm at 28.3 Lat and 82.66 Long and I'm scared. Don't know whether to start the day moving all my stuff in and tying the chicken coop down or wait until tomorrow.

Don't be scared and don't panic, preparation will reduce anxiety.

[DunedinDave]

HMON 06z seems to be much further west this run at least through 72 hours. I mean pretty significant shift. Might be a sign of a trend back to the west?

[toad strangler]

6z Euro right into the center of Apalachee Bay

[dizzyfish]

Thanks all. Not panic just old and tired. I'm not quick at anything any longer. I will start prep today moving things inside. Blasted storms. I'm too old for this.

[BobHarlem]

6z hafs B, Cat 5 into St. George's island/Apalachicola, a little east of the 0z.

[underthwx]

Thanks all. Not panic just old and tired. I'm not quick at anything any longer. I will start prep today moving things inside. Blasted storms. I'm too old for this.

I feel you.....sounds like an excellent plan.....you are not alone....be safe.....peace....

[chris_fit]

HMON 06z seems to be much further west this run at least through 72 hours. I mean pretty significant shift. Might be a sign of a trend back to the west?

And HWRF is so far decent ways East of the 00z run through 45 hours.... It's all about where that center consolidates.

[kevin]

Simulated IR imagery shows why HAFS-B approaches 900 mb: clear pinhole eye.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A to Big Bend as cat 4.

[BobHarlem]

6z HMON Cat 4 to Steinhatchee, shift left from 0z (Which was closer to Spring Hill), not as much over Tampa this run.

[aspen]

Simulated IR imagery shows why HAFS-B approaches 900 mb: clear pinhole eye.

https://i.imgur.com/TAi54oo.png

https://i.imgur.com/s5UW1qb.png

Similar structure to the first HWRF run (pinhole eye with a perpetual outer eyewall), except WAY stronger.

Hurricane models are all over the place with internal structure because we don’t even have an LLC yet. By tomorrow we should have a better idea of how this will evolve.

[ThunderForce]

How accurate are the hurricane models generally intensity-wise? Asking because it seems all of them have either a high-end Cat 4 or a Cat 5 Hurricane.

[StPeteMike]

6z HMON Cat 4 to Steinhatchee, shift left from 0z (Which was closer to Spring Hill), not as much over Tampa this run.
https://i.imgur.com/2JcKQ67.png

I hate hoping for a trend of somewhere else, but this a little sigh of relief for now.

Even with this track, storm surge along the nature coast and Tampa Bay could reach 6 ft.