ATL: MILTON - Models

[aspen]

HAFS-B peaks at 145 kt/919 mbar on Tuesday night despite increasing shear.

HWRF begins RI much sooner than the HAFS models. Takes about a day to organize, then goes bananas north of the Yucatan. It’s also the furthest south of the three models, which keeps it away from the shear and gives it a little more time.

Hurricanes this season haven't really cared much about shear. I think it was Francine that suppose to have weakened quite a bit due to shear. The shear was there, but the storm didn't weaken. I just no longer trust shear maps. The storm is going to do what it's going to do.

Francine was still greatly impacted, though. Didn’t surpass low-end Cat 2 intensity despite the record SSTs of the gulf. All models are showing shear having an impact so it cannot be disregarded.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Hurricane models all shifted north a bit, which isn't good news for the Tampa area with those models showing landfalls north of Tampa which would put strong SW winds into the Tampa area.

For example, HAFS-B:

[kevin]

Here we go again... Blend will follow soon when all models are finished running.

[Steve]

Click your favorite MJO model. All we needed for development all season was a dip into 8-1-2-3. It was clockwork. The bulk of the peak was spent in 5-6-7 and the circle which was highly fortuitous despite the repeated Gulf hits. As it is today MJO is barely out of the circle in 2/3 but it will
Skim the edge of the circle near 3 for the next 4 days. And what do we get? A landfalling hurricane. Some years MJO matters more than others. 2024 goes down as a year where it was highly predictive.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[Pelicane]

12z Euro gets as low as 964 MB but starts weakening into the upper 970s as it nears the coast. Similar landfall location to the GFS.

[ConvergenceZone]

HAFS-B peaks at 145 kt/919 mbar on Tuesday night despite increasing shear.

HWRF begins RI much sooner than the HAFS models. Takes about a day to organize, then goes bananas north of the Yucatan. It’s also the furthest south of the three models, which keeps it away from the shear and gives it a little more time.

Hurricanes this season haven't really cared much about shear. I think it was Francine that suppose to have weakened quite a bit due to shear. The shear was there, but the storm didn't weaken. I just no longer trust shear maps. The storm is going to do what it's going to do.

Francine was still greatly impacted, though. Didn’t surpass low-end Cat 2 intensity despite the record SSTs of the gulf. All models are showing shear having an impact so it cannot be disregarded.

If the models continue to shift it more north, then yes more shear impacts, but just the fact that the NHC is showing this is a major tells you what the NHC is thinking about the shear. Also,remember the stronger it gets in the short term, the less it will weaken by the time the shear hits, and the fact that it's already a TS is insane. Will see what future model runs do.

[Woofde]

I can see this peaking quite high, but once close to the coast almost all modeling shows this getting absolutely blasted by dry air. However this may be too late to significantly weaken surge, but this isn't likely to RI right up until landfall like others we've seen.

[NDG]

Euro trending stronger and northerly with its latest run. Landfall in Tampa Bay.

[TampaWxLurker]

More northerly solutions trending stronger, but the further north it goes the more shear and eventual dry air entrainment it'll have to deal with.

[HurricaneBelle]

Looks like NHC will have no choice at 5PM to shift the track north with the Euro and GFS in agreement.

[toad strangler]

there are many more 12Z EPS members into or south of Tampa Bay, then there is north.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I hate to say it but... we're getting close to the time frame where models can usually lock in the general area of a state that'll get the impacts, and it does seem like somewhere in the Tampa area from Sarasota to Spring Hill seems the most likely, with impacts being the worst along the I-4 corridor, exiting somewhere near Cape Canaveral. Even if the storm is a weakening Cat 2/3, if it's coming from a Cat 4 peak the surge impacts will be roughly the same.

[LandoWill]

Too early to tell. They have until tomorrow night to figure it out, and then people will have a day to evacuate. If it comes in south of Tampa, it will just be a rain and wind event. The power of water if it goes in north would be a problem for tampa bay.

[eastcoastFL]

HAFS-B peaks at 145 kt/919 mbar on Tuesday night despite increasing shear.

HWRF begins RI much sooner than the HAFS models. Takes about a day to organize, then goes bananas north of the Yucatan. It’s also the furthest south of the three models, which keeps it away from the shear and gives it a little more time.

Hurricanes this season haven't really cared much about shear. I think it was Francine that suppose to have weakened quite a bit due to shear. The shear was there, but the storm didn't weaken. I just no longer trust shear maps. The storm is going to do what it's going to do.

I Think that depends on a variety of factors but I agree, shear forecasts are almost pointless in my opinion. Anything beyond 12 hours is guess work.

[AutoPenalti]

SE Florida will probably not get any rain if that run verifies.

[caneman]

Too early to tell. They have until tomorrow night to figure it out, and then people will have a day to evacuate. If it comes in south of Tampa, it will just be a rain and wind event. The power of water if it goes in north would be a problem for tampa bay.

I'd guesstimate just 5% of our population was affected by surge. If you then add high winds and or massive rainfall to that it would affect even more people making a very bad situation far worse by affecting many more people.

[ElectricStorm]

The HAFS-B is certainly gonna need some upgrades before it takes over for the HWRF/HMON next year. Seems like it blows every storm up into a monster Cat 5

[jhpigott]

there are many more 12Z EPS members into or south of Tampa Bay, then there is north.

I wouldn't let your guard down in the southern part of the peninsula either. 12z ICON (which has had a good track record recently) and CMC is still showing Milton coming in around the Ft Myers area

[Cat5James]

The HAFS-B is certainly gonna need some upgrades before it takes over for the HWRF/HMON next year. Seems like it blows every storm up into a monster Cat 5

The HAFS B was the most conservative Hurricane model during the 06z suite...

[boca]

SE Florida will probably not get any rain if that run verifies.

that south florida force field is strong......

We will probably end up mostly sunny with a gusting south wind at 20moh . All the rain will be near and north of 1-4.