ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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caneman
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1681 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:
caneman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.


Wxman57. What is the slosh for Tampa Bay?. They backed it down to 3 to 6 feet but living here as long as I have I feel that 6 ft. Will be the minimum. Thanks.


Just have a brief second. Tampa Bay would be on the edge of 50kt (58 mph) sustained wind. Possibly 10ft into the bay.


Thank you
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1682 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:18 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I think it might be time for me to hit the store for some non perishable food. I don't think people here have figured out what is coming for the next 2 days and longer for power outages.

I am also doing the same as soon as Im off work. Ive warned family and friends to take stuff inside and to stock up on food.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1683 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:18 pm

Wow, 150 years without a major cane landfall in Tallahassee.

 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1838974630767312963

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1684 Postby Michele B » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:20 pm

dkommers wrote:
Woofde wrote:I'm not gonna lie this "Best spot for the storm to go discussion" is useless imo. I'll tell you, when I was chasing Idalia in Perry last year and staring at people's homes with trees through the middle and businesses without roofs, I definitely wasn't thinking "Well this was the best place for this storm to go!" I'm not a fan of this discussion it feels insensitive to the people who live there. There's nothing to be gained from it, we can't control where these go.


Yeah I'm a Public Adjuster and have about 20 clients in Perry, Madison, Mayo, etc, from Idalia. Debbie created more messes, and now Helene. Three hurricanes hitting an area in a one-year time period is bonkers. It is true that being an isolated area, the money loss of a hit here compared to other regions will count as a win in the insurance companies' eyes. But the communities in this area are in shambles. The morale of the amazing people there is beyond horrible.

It seems this storm will also be much worse than the previous two. My stomach is hurting thinking about what people will soon be dealing with.


Anyone who has not experienced a direct hit (or near miss) from one of these storms doesn't truly understand what it takes to "get back to normal life." It can takes year, DECADES, to get "back to normal."

We had Charley 20 years ago, and many homes are still not brought back to what they were pre-

And then along came Ian, and while it might SEEM like less damage, I observed that that was mostly due to the oldest, most dilapidated homes hadn't already been knocked down by Charley! Meanwhile, many of the "fringe" homes - those who were badly damaged, but not judged to be completed destroyed - had people living in them simply because FEMA or insurance or whatever was not enough to bring their home back up to what they had before the storm were now damaged beyond repair. Whose sections of our town look like a bomb went off - still - 2 years later.

And now if a THIRD one were to hit here (TWO years later, not just one, or only a few months), I don't know how this community could survive.

I especially feel terrible for Mexico Beach, as we drove up there with supplies for that area after Michael and could not believe the entire beach along one stretch - for miles - was just *gone.* What does one do then? Did FEMA help pay for them to rebuild? Did they get enough insurance? Did they simply move away or are they close by, planning/hoping to rebuild one day. And now another storm may make that impossible?

I suppose one could make the argument that the "atmosphere conditions have changed" and returned to the middle of the last century (yes, I'm old enough to remember then!), when we had back-to-back storms in consecutive years and you just had to rebuild.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1685 Postby Travorum » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:22 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1686 Postby LandoWill » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:23 pm

Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1687 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:23 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:They just issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Metro Atlanta. Don't see that very often


Okay, THAT is pretty wild LOL! Obviously your "Watch" implies only a potential risk but isn't it nuts that a city such as Atlanta be issued any kind of "tropical" Watch or Warning given how far from the coast you are :lol: ?
I'd be gobsmacked if it later gets upgraded to a Warning. I think all Severe Weather Warnings have become overly liberal in terms of the extent or range which they get issued for. I get that the need IS critical to safeguard those in harm's way. For the many people that do not experience the scope of conditions expected from such Warnings though, many become less inclined to expect those conditions when future severe weather events occur. At least here in Florida, that seems to create an unintended form of conditioning or "cry wolf syndrome".
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1688 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:23 pm

I am seeing some new young hot towers emerging within the storm cdo. They arent explosive but they are quite numerous.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1689 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:25 pm

chaser1 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:They just issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Metro Atlanta. Don't see that very often


Okay, THAT is pretty wild LOL! Obviously your "Watch" implies only a potential risk but isn't it nuts that a city such as Atlanta be issued any kind of "tropical" Watch or Warning given how far from the coast you are :lol: ?
I'd be gobsmacked if it later gets upgraded to a Warning. I think all Severe Weather Warnings have become overly liberal in terms of the extent or range which they get issued for. I get that the need IS critical to safeguard those in harm's way. For the many people that do not experience the scope of conditions expected from such Warnings though, many become less inclined to expect those conditions when future severe weather events occur. At least here in Florida, that seems to create an unintended form of conditioning or "cry wolf syndrome".


Unless a hurricane takes an unexpected turn to the east and then the cry is exactly the opposite, why didn't you warn us!
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1690 Postby Texashawk » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:26 pm

Question for people who live near Tallahassee: That city has had a lot of near misses over the last century. Do people there feel like they’ll get ‘lucky’ again or is there a sense that this is the ‘really big one’ finally coming?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1691 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:30 pm



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=5GvflJRo75M

Mark at Hurricanetrack is live setting up field equipment. Live stream links can't be imbedded, here's the link:

https://www.youtube.com/live/ZWrjklOn7M ... 2oZ-6ZP8BK
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1692 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:34 pm

Inner eyewall showing up on visible, a reverse EWRC?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1693 Postby Zonacane » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:38 pm

xironman wrote:Inner eyewall showing up on visible, a reverse EWRC?

Dry air ate that huge band that was attempting to wrap up, probably going to close off a much smaller eye now.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1694 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:38 pm

xironman wrote:Inner eyewall showing up on visible, a reverse EWRC?


It doesn't have a complete eyewall, Levi does a good job explaining the current process and the dry air factor.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1695 Postby syfr » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:39 pm

Man, Helene looks set on pushing a lot of water into all of west-facing Florida including Tampa Bay.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1696 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:40 pm

Closeup of the core:

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1697 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:40 pm

LandoWill wrote:Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,

Before you get upset about schools, let the storm pass and then state your case.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1698 Postby technikal » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:41 pm

Texashawk wrote:Question for people who live near Tallahassee: That city has had a lot of near misses over the last century. Do people there feel like they’ll get ‘lucky’ again or is there a sense that this is the ‘really big one’ finally coming?


The mood changed today and lots of people are leaving town. We expect long power outages, flooding, and lots of downed trees. I still think people are hesitant to believe true major hurricane forces will make it this far inland, but people are definitely nervous and preparing.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1699 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:43 pm

tolakram wrote:
xironman wrote:Inner eyewall showing up on visible, a reverse EWRC?


It doesn't have a complete eyewall, Levi does a good job explaining the current process and the dry air factor.


It's not that far from it.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1700 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:44 pm

Looks like it's pinching off the dry slot on the east side. Still notable on the north side but I think by this evening it will be mixed out and we'll start to see a quicker rate of intensification.

I've been thinking this whole time it'll be around 110-120kts at peak close to landfall and I think we are on track to be around there which is what the current NHC forecast has.
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