ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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sponger
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1701 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow, 150 years without a major cane landfall in Tallahassee.

 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1838974630767312963



That is interesting. That coincides with the end of the Grand Solar Minimum, a phenomena that may have begun this solar cycle. It would explain that insane weather the past three years. We could be in for a rough few decades. Even St Augustine was hit 6 times in one year during the 1700's. The weather patterns of the last 150 years may be out the window.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1702 Postby fllawyer » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:57 pm

2p EDT update:

1:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 25
Location: 22.0°N 86.4°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1703 Postby Amlee79 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:58 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
LandoWill wrote:Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,

Before you get upset about schools, let the storm pass and then state your case.


I live in Polk and our schools are closed too - but we are forecast to get strong wind gusts. Our mail carrier, who picks up all our business packages, is not allowed to drive the tall truck in the wind. I expect there are similar rules for wind gusts and school buses. They don't want to take chances with kids on a bus, I'm sure.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1704 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Sep 25, 2024 12:59 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1705 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:02 pm

Eyewall very close to closed off -- will seal out the dry air
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1706 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:05 pm

Texashawk wrote:Question for people who live near Tallahassee: That city has had a lot of near misses over the last century. Do people there feel like they’ll get ‘lucky’ again or is there a sense that this is the ‘really big one’ finally coming?


I’m in Alabama now. I’m not taking any chances whatsoever. This is looking devastating.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1707 Postby tigerz3030 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:13 pm

We live in Valdosta, GA and while the latest NHC cone does not have us in it we are just on the outside and obviously on the dirty side of the storm.

Do the pros here think our effects will be the same as Idalia last year or should we prepare for much worse?

Thank you
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1708 Postby Pasmorade » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:15 pm

Just a quick question. Compared to that nightmare-fuel HAFS run on September 22, (the run that had Helene making landfall as a Cat 5 and a minimum pressure in the 880s) how has Helene performed so far?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1709 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:20 pm

Pasmorade wrote:Just a quick question. Compared to that nightmare-fuel HAFS run on September 22, (the run that had Helene making landfall as a Cat 5 and a minimum pressure in the 880s) how has Helene performed so far?


Underperforming compared to that extreme run. still working on an inner core.

The new nascent core showing up on radar is small which would lean towards the higher end solutions
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1710 Postby Travorum » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:22 pm

Pasmorade wrote:Just a quick question. Compared to that nightmare-fuel HAFS run on September 22, (the run that had Helene making landfall as a Cat 5 and a minimum pressure in the 880s) how has Helene performed so far?


I'm looking at the 12z September 23 runs that got sub 900mb, and Helene has underperformed those so far. Here are their forecasts for 18z today:

HAFS-A: 943mb/110kt
HAFS-B: 941mb/92kt
HMON: 959mb/87kt
HWRF: 945mb/91kt

Helene has also trended slower than these model runs.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1711 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:22 pm

Josh looking for the best spot to chase Helene's eye.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1839005605127926070

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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1712 Postby bigfluffydogs » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:23 pm

Michele B wrote:
dkommers wrote:
Woofde wrote:I'm not gonna lie this "Best spot for the storm to go discussion" is useless imo. I'll tell you, when I was chasing Idalia in Perry last year and staring at people's homes with trees through the middle and businesses without roofs, I definitely wasn't thinking "Well this was the best place for this storm to go!" I'm not a fan of this discussion it feels insensitive to the people who live there. There's nothing to be gained from it, we can't control where these go.


Yeah I'm a Public Adjuster and have about 20 clients in Perry, Madison, Mayo, etc, from Idalia. Debbie created more messes, and now Helene. Three hurricanes hitting an area in a one-year time period is bonkers. It is true that being an isolated area, the money loss of a hit here compared to other regions will count as a win in the insurance companies' eyes. But the communities in this area are in shambles. The morale of the amazing people there is beyond horrible.

It seems this storm will also be much worse than the previous two. My stomach is hurting thinking about what people will soon be dealing with.


Anyone who has not experienced a direct hit (or near miss) from one of these storms doesn't truly understand what it takes to "get back to normal life." It can takes year, DECADES, to get "back to normal."

We had Charley 20 years ago, and many homes are still not brought back to what they were pre-

And then along came Ian, and while it might SEEM like less damage, I observed that that was mostly due to the oldest, most dilapidated homes hadn't already been knocked down by Charley! Meanwhile, many of the "fringe" homes - those who were badly damaged, but not judged to be completed destroyed - had people living in them simply because FEMA or insurance or whatever was not enough to bring their home back up to what they had before the storm were now damaged beyond repair. Whose sections of our town look like a bomb went off - still - 2 years later.

And now if a THIRD one were to hit here (TWO years later, not just one, or only a few months), I don't know how this community could survive.

I especially feel terrible for Mexico Beach, as we drove up there with supplies for that area after Michael and could not believe the entire beach along one stretch - for miles - was just *gone.* What does one do then? Did FEMA help pay for them to rebuild? Did they get enough insurance? Did they simply move away or are they close by, planning/hoping to rebuild one day. And now another storm may make that impossible?

I suppose one could make the argument that the "atmosphere conditions have changed" and returned to the middle of the last century (yes, I'm old enough to remember then!), when we had back-to-back storms in consecutive years and you just had to rebuild.


Mexico Beach as you see it today is not the same as it was. FEMA gave only so much and without flood insurance, the houses that got wrecked by surge did not get nearly enough to rebuild. There are still damaged houses unoccupied there. What is being built makes my construction lawyer eyeballs twitch and it's mainly being bought by people as second homes. Wood frame, not concrete, and not nearly enough strapping in my opinion in a VE zone on the water is not going to make it. Cape San Blas has houses basically in the water that will not survive. Charming little places like Carabelle will be at risk of demolition if half of what appears to be coming comes to fruition. Our house in St Joe Beach will come out of this OK I think on this storm, but if we get another Michael down the road, we won't rebuild another time. There is a great book called the Geography of Risk that talks about the flood insurance angle of your question. And now, back to lurking.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1713 Postby TomballEd » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:25 pm

tigerz3030 wrote:We live in Valdosta, GA and while the latest NHC cone does not have us in it we are just on the outside and obviously on the dirty side of the storm.

Do the pros here think our effects will be the same as Idalia last year or should we prepare for much worse?

Thank you


NHC notes because of the size of the storm, tropical storm wind/rain is likely E of the forecast cone, which is just a statistical measure of NHC error at a time range. It'll likely rain and tomorrow your part of Georgia is near the line between Slight Chance and Marginal Chance for tornadoes.

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1714 Postby tigerz3030 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:27 pm

What kind of winds should we expect with gusts? Gusts over 100 possibly?
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1715 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:28 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:Eyewall very close to closed off -- will seal out the dry air

Land interaction with the Yucatan similar to how Charley looked after passing over Cuba.
Surface pressures are still fairly low near 980 so Helene will have no trouble drawing inflow from the gulf.

Track doesn't look too close to Tampa bay WXman57 said 50 knot winds which means it should pass to the west of buoy 42036, look for winds from the E,SE, SSE and finally the south 90-180 degrees there the location is off Tampa bay near -84.5 longitude.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42036
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1716 Postby Powellrm » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:33 pm

Don’t really think Helene will struggle much with this dry air. If she was less organized and entering a less favorable environment with sheer, I’d take more note of the dry air situation. Looks to be handling it just fine and en route to the hot tub with a smaller eye. The models handled this scenario quite well. Hats off.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1717 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:34 pm

Small eye-feature now visible on mesoscale satellite at the end of the loop

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1718 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:38 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I think it might be time for me to hit the store for some non perishable food. I don't think people here have figured out what is coming for the next 2 days and longer for power outages.


Good luck up there. My brother dealt with a tropical storm up there and had a tree fall on his house. Those pines just do not have deep roots.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1719 Postby Pas_Bon » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:45 pm

For those of you in the panhandle of Florida, southern Georgia, west coast/Big Bend of Florida.....Godspeed. Thoughts your way from Galveston County, Texas.
I have a sinking feeling that rapid intensification will likely occur today. Growing up in South Louisiana, I can remember the stomach churning when these things would explode in a matter of hours.
It's not a good one.
For those in the path of this soon-to-be beast, stay safe and please leave if you have the means/ability to do so.
*I am not a professional meteorologist.*
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1720 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:49 pm

Up to 85 mph.

AL, 09, 2024092518, , BEST, 0, 220N, 864W, 75, 978, HU
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