ATL: BERYL - Models

[floridasun]

if get any stronger and high weaking a bit more it may feel weakness to north that some thing we need watch it gain latitude

[3090]

Stronger system & weaker ridge to the north are allowing for a more northwest trajectory on approach to the Gulf Coast. Will get quite close to south Texas this run. Many options for this are still on the table after its trek through the Caribbean.

I have been emphasizing that beyond 5 days, (6-7), that the forecast track is essentially a bit iffy. Maybe it dives into Mexico in the very southern BOC, or it turns more NW and landfalls in northen Mexico/south Texas. A lot is still up in the air, AFTER 5 days. Forecasting beyond 5 days, is very sketchy.

[aspen]

18z HWRF has a Cat 2 tomorrow afternoon and a Cat 3 by Monday morning.

Update: 115 kt Cat 4 just south of Saint Vincent on Monday afternoon. A south shift this run.

[lsuhurricane]

18z Euro is very strong near Jamaica.

[aspen]

HAFS-A peaks at 95-100kt during its passage through the Lesser Antilles, but the 18z run initializes too weak.

HAFS-B initializes closer to reality like the HWRF and peaks at 120-125 kt while having a fairly high pressure in the low 950s.

Both models show Beryl being impacted by shear as early as Tuesday morning, which significant weakening down to a Cat 1 or a high-end TS by the end of the run.

[Nimbus]

if get any stronger and high weaking a bit more it may feel weakness to north that some thing we need watch it gain latitude

There is high cirrus pushing west that marks the western edge of the subtropical ridging but the GFS has Beryl getting torn up by Hispaniola later in the forecast. Since it may be a compact windfield Barbados might luck out if the track stays far enough south. Eyewall winds from a major hurricane are no fun.

18Z HWRF finally tracking south of Jamaica with a 954 MB hurricane.

[BobHarlem]

Ships intensity guidance for Beryl, those cat 4/5 numbers I don't like.

[lsuhurricane]

Easy to see the deviation point on the 18z EPS. Strength on approach to Jamaica results in those members trending towards the GOM. Appears to be 10-20% on this run.

Members that are less strong tend to head towards the Yucatán.

Cutting it close!

[3090]

Easy to see the deviation point on the 18z EPS. Strength on approach to Jamaica results in those members trending towards the GOM. Appears to be 10-20% on this run.

Members that are less strong tend to head towards the Yucatán.

Cutting it close!

https://i.ibb.co/Rj5B12k/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif

Timing is going to be very very interesting, along with intensity. Some indications the TUTT is not going to be as strong and Beryl will remain as a hurricane as it approaches the western end of Cuba after skirting south of Jamaica. Stronger north, diving trough, POTENTIAL more northerly component to Beryl’s final days. ATM; really too close to call.

[aspen]

Ships intensity guidance for Beryl, those cat 4/5 numbers I don't like.
https://i.imgur.com/tcqzolG.jpeg

Dang, the environment looks insane in 108-120 hrs if there’s enough left of Beryl to take advantage of it.

Judging by those charts, Beryl will likely peak between 48-60 hours from now (Monday evening - Tuesday morning) before shear spikes. I think there’s a chance it could make a run at Cat 4 intensity then.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Easy to see the deviation point on the 18z EPS. Strength on approach to Jamaica results in those members trending towards the GOM. Appears to be 10-20% on this run.

Members that are less strong tend to head towards the Yucatán.

Cutting it close!

https://i.ibb.co/Rj5B12k/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif

Yikes. Theres no consensus anywhere yet. Everyone from west coast of florida to yucatan needs to watch this

[hurricane2025]

This isn’t going to Florida

[mantis83]

This isn’t going to Florida

agreed! a combination of strong ridging and a tutt will keep it south of florida

[ScottNAtlanta]

Easy to see the deviation point on the 18z EPS. Strength on approach to Jamaica results in those members trending towards the GOM. Appears to be 10-20% on this run.

Members that are less strong tend to head towards the Yucatán.

Cutting it close!

https://i.ibb.co/Rj5B12k/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif

Timing is going to be very very interesting, along with intensity. Some indications the TUTT is not going to be as strong and Beryl will remain as a hurricane as it approaches the western end of Cuba after skirting south of Jamaica. Stronger north, diving trough, POTENTIAL more northerly component to Beryl’s final days. ATM; really too close to call.

You can look at the WV loop now and see the TUTT is eroding
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Stratton23]

00z ICON cat 3 Beryl goes into corpus christi

[LAF92]

00z ICON cat 3 Beryl goes into corpus christi

What I don’t like is on the ICON it’s looks to be having a lot of North direction to it. That ridge is eroding quickly on that run

[Stratton23]

This CMC run can immediately be discounted, very very bad initialization, almost 20 mb higher than what the current pressure is

[Tailgater33]

This CMC run can immediately be discounted, very very bad initialization, almost 20 mb higher than what the current pressure is

Yes please, right over my house and intensifying. I like my trees upright. I want nothing but a few inches of rains over a couple days

[Category5Kaiju]

This CMC run can immediately be discounted, very very bad initialization, almost 20 mb higher than what the current pressure is

CMC is not really good at exact intensities of systems, but I have found the model to be very good at sniffing out systems and general tracks. If you have a decent signature in the model, it's normally a sign that the storm is strong, irregardless of the exact mbar reading shown in the model.

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS has a US landfall near Corpus Christi. Several other models are also showing this system moving into the NW Gulf. I am curious if the Euro shows a similar solution of this moving NW after crossing the Yucatan.