ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

Already a PTC T.D.?? Back from running errands and now see 'Four', earlier than thought or roughly as expected, and to put up watches/warnings?

[robbielyn]

A bit of a side note but it seems like the last 3-5 years, we’ve been seeing more storms come from the Cuba region and head into the eastern Gulf. Irma, Ian, Idalia, Eta just to name a few.

For a long stretch there it was more northern gulf coast focused from Louisiana to Pensacola with storms tending to move more N and NW in the gulf. The trend has been more N and NE it seems.

Maybe it’s just me but from living in Tampa all my life it seems the last 5 years the west coast has been more active.

Actually since 2016 theres been an uptick. It started with Hermine and hasn't stopped since.

[robbielyn]

Already a PTC T.D.?? Back from running errands and now see 'Four', earlier than thought or roughly as expected???

Not a TD yet it's still PTC4

[MJGarrison]

Already a PTC T.D.?? Back from running errands and now see 'Four', earlier than thought or roughly as expected???

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Potential Tropical Cycle 4. Not yet a TD


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[chaser1]

Moisture currently moving west in the Gulf of Mexico. Might delay a northern turn until that changes.
https://tropicwatch.info/moisturewest080220241300z.gif

Watching it over and over again, it’s hard for me to not think the center will be more south of the Cuba Coastline than what is being depicted. Looks like low will exit into the Gulf of Guacanayabo, moving W to WNW.

Of course, it’s my untrained eye and I could be incorrect.

That is what I am seeing, a possible circulation right around the Gulf of Guacanayabo. Of course with developing systems there are often several low level vortices so I am not sure if it's a temporary feature or the actual center of low pressure.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Yep To be specific, I'd call it at 20.8 and 77. 5. I first noticed the arcing convection jut NW of there and verified my same thoughts after looking at the visible satellite.

[Jr0d]

Call me confused but I cannot figure out why the NHC would issue a TS watch for the Keys and Dry Tortugas but a TS warning for the SW coast of the Florida peninsula. That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Impacts will be felt in the keys first.

Not currently forecast to become a storm until it's north of the Florida Keys. If the current forecast holds we will not see sustained winds over 40 mph in the Keys. I believe only a few overly bullish mesoscale models show it becoming a storm over the Keys, so worst case scenario but less likely we might see low in tropical storm winds. This could change if the center firms further south than currently expected however.

I do believe it will start to consolidate over the Keys and strengthening storms seem to hit much harder than weakening storms, so I expect we will have some intense squalls with gusts well over tropical storm force. Also we may see some waterspouts, some of which could make landfall.

To put it simply, tomorrow will be a wash and no charter boats will go out.

[jaxfladude]

Thanks for the replies, and info.... prayers...

[Nuno]

Call me confused but I cannot figure out why the NHC would issue a TS watch for the Keys and Dry Tortugas but a TS warning for the SW coast of the Florida peninsula. That doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Impacts will be felt in the keys first.

The handling of watches and warnings has puzzled me in recent years. It seems inconsistent at times.

[GCANE]

An updraft anticyclone is directly over the convection firing between Jamacia and Cuba
An ULL is to the NE creating an outflow channel.
No PV Streamers close by.

[GCANE]

Vorts are consolidating and strengthening between Jamaica and Cuba.
Steering is due west.

[Frank P]

Vorts are consolidating and strengthening between Jamaica and Cuba.
Steering is due west.

Well if that comes to fruition it would be quite the game changer for sure!

[toad strangler]

Vorts are consolidating and strengthening between Jamaica and Cuba.
Steering is due west.

Well if that comes to fruition it would be quite the game changer for sure!

NHC 3 day cone is pretty lethal. Nothing is impossible though.

[chaser1]

Vorts are consolidating and strengthening between Jamaica and Cuba.
Steering is due west.

I was considering a 280-285 motion?! If you're correct, that would place a quicker organizing center over water even further south and east than I was projecting. At this point I'm anticipating ample organization for this to be upgraded to a TD just north or east of Isle of Pines around 6Z tonight (technically tomm a.m.). Even if....., I can't see a developing vertical core immediately begin to turn NNW to North to emerge in the Florida Straits as currently forecast.

[tropicwatch]

This afternoon's radar should help with determining where PTC 4 is consolidating.

[chaser1]

Vorts are consolidating and strengthening between Jamaica and Cuba.
Steering is due west.

Well if that comes to fruition it would be quite the game changer for sure!

NHC 3 day cone is pretty lethal. Nothing is impossible though.

You ARE right about their 3 day cone. It's tough to bet against that. I just don't see how that plays out though unless the low to mid level low suddenly jolts NW today.

[ColdMiser123]

The low-level cumulus field strongly suggests the farther south vorticity maximum is becoming dominant.

Models will struggle more than usual before we get a fully defined center.

This is also a storm that is very sensitive to its exact location upon entering the Gulf, for final Gulf landfall & post-Gulf track.

A long way to go with this.

[wxman57]

Vorts are consolidating and strengthening between Jamaica and Cuba.
Steering is due west.

Well if that comes to fruition it would be quite the game changer for sure!

NHC 3 day cone is pretty lethal. Nothing is impossible though.

Ignore the cone - it has nothing to do with current track uncertainty or impacts. It's quite meaningless, really.

[NDG]

My latest estimate where I think the main vorticity is located.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1819415409059152185

[ColdMiser123]

Biggest thing that jumps out at me with the current satellite loop is the lack of curvature with the cumulus flow with the thunderstorm cluster north of Cuba, and how much curvature there now is in that cumulus flow near the Gulf of Guacanayabo, where there continues to be active convection.

[Jr0d]

This afternoon's radar should help with determining where PTC 4 is consolidating.

Here is the link to Cuba's radars. Fortunately it seems like the ones we need are functional.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES