ATL: DEBBY - Models

[BobHarlem]

41% chance of RI with four

[Steve]

41% chance of RI with four
https://i.imgur.com/FvLOGvK.jpeg

Ships missing that offshore Atlantic potential keeping it a TS?

[Steve]

Also FV3 north of Tampa but disorganized. Not sure if it doesn’t catch the origins or if it’s on to something. I like it farther north but this is a good test to see if it candle something coming up from the Caribbean which is out of range.

[Steve]

FV3 with the Big Bend hit and 970s cat 2 and still way south of Myrtle beach in 120 hours/5 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=120

Next up icon.

[BobHarlem]

0z icon landfall Big Bend between Perry and St. Marks


Exits into Atlantic near Brunswick/St. SImons Island, GA


Second landfall near Hilton Head Island, SC


Then moves slowly inland into North Carolina by Saturday, and appears to be heading back out into the Atlantic by the end of the run (Close to the NC/VA line by the coast)

[StPeteMike]

Boy, coastal flooding will be bad for West Coast to Nature Coast of Florida and much of GA/SC/NC with those models and the lack of speed.

[AtlanticWind]

00z gfs very similar to last run

[BobHarlem]

Landfall here near Steinhatchee, however I think it may be underestimating intensity just on looking at satellite now.

Landfall point is only slightly left of 18z, but takes about 6 hours longer to get on land, so moving generally slower than 18z.


Exits into the Atlantic around Brunswick/ST. Simons, similar location as 18z, but again moving slower, then hugs the coast offshore, moving like a herd of turtles. Much closer to shore than the 18z. Coastal Flooding/surge going to be a big problem with this one.

[Stratton23]

Models are trending stronger with the bermuda high, don’t think its going to ride up the coast any more, I think it stalls somewhere off the georgia coast before moving back in land

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs Second landfall between Charleston, SC and Georgetown



Then exits by Norfolk, VA, skirting MD, DE, NJ.


Third landfall eastern Long Island, NY, with a quick 4th in Rhode Island/MA, then a 5th in Nova Scotia.

[Spacecoast]

What a tangled mess.....




Super-ensemble (GFS,Euro,GEFS,EPS,etc,etc)
zoom...

[LarryWx]

0Z UK: landfall just E of 12Z’s Apalachicola; then goes inland further W into C GA then turns E to CHS, goes up SC coast and then well inland into NC; flooding threat many areas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 23.5N 83.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2024 24 23.5N 83.7W 1007 28
1200UTC 04.08.2024 36 25.7N 84.8W 1006 34
0000UTC 05.08.2024 48 27.4N 85.5W 1004 43
1200UTC 05.08.2024 60 28.8N 85.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 06.08.2024 72 29.9N 84.4W 1002 35
1200UTC 06.08.2024 84 31.4N 84.2W 1001 36
0000UTC 07.08.2024 96 32.5N 83.3W 997 37
1200UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.5N 81.1W 996 41
0000UTC 08.08.2024 120 32.8N 79.9W 994 43
1200UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.8N 79.5W 996 41
0000UTC 09.08.2024 144 35.3N 78.4W 998 39
1200UTC 09.08.2024 156 36.4N 78.5W 1001 38
0000UTC 10.08.2024 168 37.4N 76.6W 1002 36

[Stratton23]

GEFS doesn’t fully agree with a ride up the east coast and stall, still is very split, with a 2nd group still hanging back in the gulf of mexico, this is a nightmare to forecast

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: similar track to 12Z but stronger with it coming back into CHS at 986 mb vs 989 on 12Z; biblical rainfall amts of 20-24” mainly over ~72 hr period SAV-CHS and inland to 50 miles Lowcountry

[ElectricStorm]

0z Hurricane models:
HWRF gets to 70kts/983mb at landfall.
HMON 60kts/986mb shortly before landfall
HAFS-A 70kts/985mb
HAFS-B the weakest but still a strong TS at 60kts/992mb

Still looks to be on pace for a strong TS/low end Cat 1 at landfall. NHCs forecast looks pretty good for now, as long as it doesn't end up further west. If that happens it might get a bit stronger.

[Woofde]

This might be one of the toughest forecast challenges I've seen in recent times. Where this is headed after Florida is a big question. A look at the GEFS ensembles at 7 days shows three groups. Some show members riding the Gulf stream north to either New England or Canada. Others show pretty much a complete stall, which would not be ideal for the south east, (although the wind threat isn't as likely to be a problem in these runs with most staying inland). Finally, there's a small outlier group of members where they somehow end up in Texas‽ There's a lot of wrinkles in these forecasts.

[jlauderdal]

This might be one of the toughest forecast challenges I've seen in recent times. Where this is headed after Florida is a big question. A look at the GEFS ensembles at 7 days shows three groups. Some show members riding the Gulf stream north to either New England or Canada. Others show pretty much a complete stall, which would not be ideal for the south east, (although the wind threat isn't as likely to be a problem in these runs with most staying inland). Finally, there's a small outlier group of members where they somehow end up in Texas‽ There's a lot of wrinkles in these forecasts.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240803/bf3de921612e3be14a5714fe80c49639.jpg

The euro has a prolonged stall over NC/SC, still there a week from today, that looks like a far bigger issue than Florida will see. Dont fall asleep on the wave train, its loading up as we get into peak season, a setup that will make those season cancel posts a faded memory.

[Nimbus]

GEFS doesn’t fully agree with a ride up the east coast and stall, still is very split, with a 2nd group still hanging back in the gulf of mexico, this is a nightmare to forecast

00z GFS is still too fast but the Euro track might verify if the current slow movement doesn't continue.

The trough to the north is much clearer in the water vapor loop this morning but our TS is still south of Cuba!

If this were October we could hope the trough digs farther south than forecast but the prospects for an an early miss might start showing up in the next few model runs?

[SFLcane]

12 models black east..

[jlauderdal]

12 models black east..

https://i.postimg.cc/FKtF2Pg3/IMG-9139.gif

Breeze has picked up in sofla, precip looks meager for now.