ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cachondo23]

Is there a reason why Dominica is not under a TS Warning? It looks like it goes straight to it or between that island and Guadalupe.

[AubreyStorm]

Large blow up on convection with temps around -80C directly on top of the estimated CoC.

[IsabelaWeather]

A CDO might be forming now, really is looking pretty good now on IR. But IR lies sometimes...

[Sciencerocks]

[5t0rmsguy]

https://i.imgur.com/kgOXIzd.gif

This doesent look like its heading north as all the models said it would, Would this mean it would advance into the caribbean?

[Hurrilurker]

Huge change from 12 hours ago, really looks like it's coming together quickly now. People in Bermuda had better be keeping a close eye on this one.

[FireRat]

Ernesto looks like he's really Earnest about moving thru the islands & getting his act together quick!

[Hurrilurker]

Passing over some islands right now, might disrupt organization for a few hours (Guadeloupe has ~5K foot mountains).

[aspen]

Still very weak under the hood according to recon, although the LLC does seem to be better defined. We won’t see any appreciable organizational improvement until Ernesto slows down tonight into tomorrow.

[kevin]

The first recon pass found 1006.2 mb, 48 kt FL winds far SE of the center and 43 kt SFMR. Due to the broad structure of Ernesto I wouldn't put the winds too high so I'd day 1006 mb / 40 kt.

[Nimbus]

The first recon pass found 1006.2 mb, 48 kt FL winds far SE of the center and 43 kt SFMR. Due to the broad structure of Ernesto I wouldn't put the winds too high so I'd day 1006 mb / 40 kt.

Some heavy squalls moving north over Guadalupe now so Ernesto has passed there.
The slow down will occur near the Mona passage west of Puerto Rico?
Not forecast to be a hurricane by then, but power grid wasn't too good there a few years ago?

[tropicwatch]

If HH's are finding the center of circulation where it looks like they are, Ernesto is on the south side of the forecast track.

[aspen]

40kt FL and SFMR fairly close to the center in the NE quadrant. Pressure seems to be down a little bit with a more defined pressure gradient.

[tropicwatch]

If HH's are finding the center of circulation where it looks like they are, Ernesto is on the south side of the forecast track.

One to the south was a false one.

[al78]

https://i.imgur.com/4VXnCSJ.gif

Ernesto’s circulation is so large that it is pulling convection over the Amazon rainforest towards its center.

https://imgur.com/ssdFhFm

MIMIC showing Ernesto pulling in TPW from the Amazon

Although it is remote from Ernesto, I am looking at the atmospheric river taking aim at the UK. Last thing we need is more wet weather.

[MarioProtVI]

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[WaveBreaking]

Latest

[ChrisH-UK]

Ernesto at dawn is looking good with lots of convection building out now the question is where will the circulation settle on.

Source -https://col.st/0iyiR

[kevin]

IR imagery of Ernesto is quickly improving with now a raw T# of 4.0 (987 mb, 65 kt). CI is still at 3.2 (999 mb, 49 kt), but if Ernesto can hold its current appearance I expect winds to catch up to its appearance within the next 24 hours.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Huge change from 12 hours ago, really looks like it's coming together quickly now. People in Bermuda had better be keeping a close eye on this one.

We are all watching it; front page of the paper today.