ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Kirk becomes a Category 5 hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

Makes me wonder, could we see a major MDR hurricane in November at this rate?

(Has there ever been anything out there in November before, of any intensity?)

Nothing would surprise me.

[aspen]

Was gonna point that out lol. Such a weird double-peaked season.

2024 might take it a step further and have a MDR-born Cat 5 in July and October at opposite ends of the basin but none during August or September.

That almost has a North Indian Ocean feel in a sense. Not much was happening at all during the peak season, but the shoulder seasons are getting the activity...

Yeah I saw and participated in much debate on Twitter regarding potential "Indian Oceanification" of the Atlantic due to climate change. I'm not sure I believe it, but it is an interesting theory

Probably too early to tell. This year’s anomalous double-peak can be tied to the northerly-displaced ITCZ that shut down normal climo peak; significant MDR activity only occurred when the ITCZ was at favorable latitudes during the “shoulder seasons”. It’s possible that changing ocean/atmospheric currents (ex: cooling waters by Greenland due to ice melt) could drag the ITCZ north on a more regular basis, but we have far too small of a sample size to say anything definitive.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Knew that 105-110 kt forecast was quite conservative. This feels like a budding WPac super typhoon.

[Teban54]

Actually, forget about easternmost records or what might happen in November.

If we define the MDR as east of 60W (not the Caribbean) and south of 25N (very lenient definition), there were only two other October MHs in the MDR on record: #10 1878 and #9 1893. Both peaked at 100-105 kts.

Kirk is the only MDR major hurricane in October in the satellite era. It looks destined to become the only MDR Cat 4 in October, period.

[Teban54]

Knew that 105-110 kt forecast was quite conservative. This feels like a budding WPac super typhoon.

To be fair, even the typically aggressive hurricane models were showing 110 kt peaks for days. Kirk is massively outperforming even the most aggressive model expectations.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Actually, forget about easternmost records or what might happen in November.

If we define the MDR as east of 60W (not the Caribbean) and south of 25N (very lenient definition), there were only two other October MHs in the MDR on record: #10 1878 and #9 1893. Both peaked at 100-105 kts.

Kirk is the only MDR major hurricane in October in the satellite era. It looks destined to become the only MDR Cat 4 in October, period.

2024 has the earliest MDR major and latest, but no MDR major hurricanes in between. Sounds about right.

[cycloneye]

The historic significance of this.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1841657060535959609

[Category5Kaiju]

You know, something I've noticed is that in recent years, it seems like we've had quite a few Cape Verde hurricanes that were on the cusp of Category 5 (Sam) and bona fide Category 5s (Lorenzo and Lee) recurve. And Kirk looks somewhat likely to join this list of recurving very high-end Cat 4/Cat 5 hurricanes.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually, forget about easternmost records or what might happen in November.

If we define the MDR as east of 60W (not the Caribbean) and south of 25N (very lenient definition), there were only two other October MHs in the MDR on record: #10 1878 and #9 1893. Both peaked at 100-105 kts.

Kirk is the only MDR major hurricane in October in the satellite era. It looks destined to become the only MDR Cat 4 in October, period.

This season feels so unusual. If all goes well for lingering Leslie she may kiss Kirk's records goodbye too

[Teban54]

GOES public imagery has been down for at least half an hour again, but looking at up-to-date ones from COD, it looks like a bit of dry air got ingested. Probably only a minor hiccup, though. (Also note that COD uses a different color scale.)

[WaveBreaking]

GOES public imagery has been down for at least half an hour again, but looking at up-to-date ones from COD, it looks like a bit of dry air got ingested. Probably only a minor hiccup, though. (Also note that COD uses a different color scale.)

https://i.postimg.cc/0N3yCvyT/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-global-capeverde-13-02-10-Z-20241003-map-data-36-1n-10-100.gif

If you look over at the weak thunderstorms near 50W 20N, you can see their anvils getting blown off to the east. So there might be a bit of mid-level shear nearby that’s helping the dry air to get in. But it shouldn’t be enough to take down Kirk imo. It looks like it’s building a thick eyewall atm.

[weeniepatrol]

That almost has a North Indian Ocean feel in a sense. Not much was happening at all during the peak season, but the shoulder seasons are getting the activity...

Yeah I saw and participated in much debate on Twitter regarding potential "Indian Oceanification" of the Atlantic due to climate change. I'm not sure I believe it, but it is an interesting theory

Probably too early to tell. This year’s anomalous double-peak can be tied to the northerly-displaced ITCZ that shut down normal climo peak; significant MDR activity only occurred when the ITCZ was at favorable latitudes during the “shoulder seasons”. It’s possible that changing ocean/atmospheric currents (ex: cooling waters by Greenland due to ice melt) could drag the ITCZ north on a more regular basis, but we have far too small of a sample size to say anything definitive.

Exactly. Agree.

[Teban54]

GOES public imagery has been down for at least half an hour again, but looking at up-to-date ones from COD, it looks like a bit of dry air got ingested. Probably only a minor hiccup, though. (Also note that COD uses a different color scale.)

https://i.postimg.cc/0N3yCvyT/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-global-capeverde-13-02-10-Z-20241003-map-data-36-1n-10-100.gif

If you look over at the weak thunderstorms near 50W 20N, you can see their anvils getting blown off to the east. So there might be a bit of mid-level shear nearby that’s helping the dry air to get in. But it shouldn’t be enough to take down Kirk imo. It looks like it’s building a thick eyewall atm.

https://i.imgur.com/4rfY88C.gif

NHC upped Kirk to 110 kt at this advisory despite the possible dry air entrainment (which means it might also just be an illusion). New forecast has peak 130 kt.

Kirk has undergone an impressive period of rapid intensification
over the past 24 h. Recent satellite imagery showed a ragged eye,
with multiple deep bursts of convection rotating in the eyewall.
Overshooting tops are obscuring the eye now, but it would not be
surprising if it clears again soon. As noted in the special
advisory, the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates have climbed but
were constrained. The initial intensity is nudged up to 110 kt for
this advisory, closest to the T6.0 data-T number from SAB. The
hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which
means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to wrap around deeper convection and eye warming again. We’ll see if it lasts this time.

[kevin]

Kirk's eye is warming, now up to +6C. Constraints from ADT have been removed and CI# is climbing. It's currently at 5.2, but the raw T# of 5.9 supports an intensity of 950mb/112kt.

[aspen]

Well that’s disappointing. Looks like it leveled off for some reason, which wasn’t forecast by the hurricane models.

[ChrisH-UK]

Kirk has ingested a bit of dry air which has disrupted the eye in the last few hours , Kirk is in an area of dry air or it might of been a eyewall replacement. This is a 3 hour loop of Kirk using GeoColor Proxy and Tropical Airmass (thats why its pink) to show details of Kirk.

Source - https://col.st/IJ32i

[Hurricane2022]

EWRC?

[aspen]

EWRC?
https://imageshack.com/i/poT2B8RTp https://imageshack.com/i/podfFbQ9p

Based on the latest frames, I’m not sure. May just be a consequence of the dry air entrainment and convective bands trying to wall it off.