ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

She is getting oblitered right now and may not survive the night as a strong cane? We can only hope

Hopefully but I'll trust NHC's forecast that it will pass near Jamaica as a cat 3.

[jasons2k]

No, it's increasing ahead of Beryl and in the western gulf..

It says minus 30 right over top of where Beryl is

The high cirrus cloud movement outlines the shear in real time but its just an indication.
Gonzo is doing some detailed high altitude sampling to see if future shear is going to weaken Beryl significantly.
There is currently no sharp troughing ahead of Beryl along her track and it looks like the ridge may bridge over leaving Beryl relatively intact to me. That leaves land interaction with Jamaica to slow her down.

Bonus points whenever someone uses good old-fashioned observational techniques for some solid analysis.

Satellite loops offer so many clues beyond what you can “see” in the models

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

She is getting oblitered right now and may not survive the night as a strong cane? We can only hope

Hopefully but I'll trust NHC's forecast that it will pass near Jamaica as a cat 3.

absolutely...dont trust my forecast. be nice to wake up to just a rainmaker tho

[5t0rmsguy]

Beryl just lost its eye does that mean jamaica is saved?

[Nimbus]

I have a lot of family in Jamaica. Hurricane Gilbert was a very scary moment for my family since my grandmothers roof was blown off while speaking to my mother. Interested to see what the HH find when they make their next pass. Really hoping the shear wears it down overnight.

If the core winds stay south of the island it may not be as bad as the HWRF forecast, shear may take the pressure up to the 970's. Flooding and surge are going to be the main problem, squalls are building along the coast of Hispaniola quite far north away from the center.

[Jr0d]

I'd probably go with 135kts/942mb for current intensity based on the last pass however cloud tops are cooling once again so it wouldn't surprise me if it strengthens a little. No double wind max so it doesn't appear there's any imminent EWRCs. Starting to get very concerned for Jamaica though.

Beryl is on a weakening trend. Probably will have an open eye wall in 6 hours. This is better for Jamaica. The surge will be a major issue, the exposed bays will see the worst. Fortunately the elevation makes it easy to find high ground... unfortunately the higher elevations will see higher winds and the threat of landslides is present. The fast motion however should limit some freshwater flooding.

One of the computer models shows that staying as category 4 strengths all the way to Jamaica. Plus it shows it's staying At least a category 3 all the way until it gets to the Yucatan

We can easily see a cat 3 with an open eyewall...hell even cat 4, Irma hit the Florida Keys as a cat 4 but the south eyewall was not intact

Still Beryl is fighting shear and I do think an open eyewall will be apparent in 3 to 4 hours despite how resilient the storm has been.

[IcyTundra]

Dr. Levi posted a new update https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPsZzrXCsPA

[Pipelines182]

She is getting oblitered right now and may not survive the night as a strong cane? We can only hope

Hopefully but I'll trust NHC's forecast that it will pass near Jamaica as a cat 3.

Because they've really been nailing their intensity forecasts for this one the last week

[TeamPlayersBlue]

She is getting oblitered right now and may not survive the night as a strong cane? We can only hope

Hopefully but I'll trust NHC's forecast that it will pass near Jamaica as a cat 3.

Because they've really been nailing their intensity forecasts for this one the last week

It has been so bad for this storm. We are clearly so far away from understanding intensity in hurricanes.

[JaxGator]

So wind shear is dropping

No, it's increasing ahead of Beryl and in the western gulf..

It says minus 30 right over top of where Beryl is

So it appears at the moment, while Beryl is being affected to some degree by the shear, the hurricane looks to be fighting the TUTT. That's not good if that continues, especially for Jamaica and beyond.

[MGC]

Shear and down slope winds coming off Hispaniola are starting to disrupt Beryl. Look for slow decay of the cyclone......MGC

[IcyTundra]

No, it's increasing ahead of Beryl and in the western gulf..

It says minus 30 right over top of where Beryl is

So it appears at the moment, while Beryl is being affected to some degree by the shear, the hurricane looks to be fighting the TUTT. That's not good if that continues, especially for Jamaica and beyond.

Yes the TUTT has been weakening and isn't the main cause of shear on Beryl. Right now the strong trade winds are shearing it.

[Stratton23]

I definitely don’t think this one will weaken as fast as some of the guidance like the euro has it doing

[ROCK]

Dr. Levi posted a new update https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPsZzrXCsPA

Very good update! Makes sense. Where it comes off the Yuc and at what shape will be key to US landfall and intensity.

[JaxGator]

It says minus 30 right over top of where Beryl is

So it appears at the moment, while Beryl is being affected to some degree by the shear, the hurricane looks to be fighting the TUTT. That's not good if that continues, especially for Jamaica and beyond.

Yes the TUTT has been weakening and isn't the main cause of shear on Beryl. Right now the strong trade winds are shearing it.

Yes, I do see that now on satellite and see the trade winds coming from the south or south-west heading northeast. Wasn't sure if that was the TUTT or the trade winds. Thank you for the clarification.

[ljmac75]

Sure is great when the data from the strongest part of the storm doesn't show up. My second favorite recon thing, my favorite is when the recon gets to the strongest winds after the advisory is posted and they have to post an update like 20 minutes after the hour saying "UPDATE: the storm is stronger."

[cheezyWXguy]

So it appears at the moment, while Beryl is being affected to some degree by the shear, the hurricane looks to be fighting the TUTT. That's not good if that continues, especially for Jamaica and beyond.

Yes the TUTT has been weakening and isn't the main cause of shear on Beryl. Right now the strong trade winds are shearing it.

Yes, I do see that now on satellite and see the trade winds coming from the south or south-west heading northeast. Wasn't sure if that was the TUTT or the trade winds. Thank you for the clarification.

What you’re pointing out is actually TUTT related (winds out of the SW). Arguably, these are not the main cause of shear on Beryl, but they are still A cause of shear on Beryl. The trade winds are out of the east, and are strongest in the lower levels. In effect, these winds would push the low level circulation west faster than the convection above it. That relative difference in movement between the lower and upper levels is arguably the main driver of shear.

I say “arguably” because I’m personally not sure which mechanism is currently more influential on Beryl and both are affecting it to some degree. Beryl has some ability to push the TUTT out of its way and weaken it over the next couple of days, but to what degree is up for debate. Beryl is not able to affect the trade winds, but they should be weaker as Beryl moves west toward the Yucatan.

[Woofde]

AF plane still finding 145kt+ flight winds and 150+ sfmr readings. Weakening is not that severe yet despite the ugly looks.

[Nimbus]

AF plane still finding 145kt+ flight winds and 150+ sfmr readings. Weaking is not that severe yet despite the ugly looks.

947 MB is not a weak system by any means.

[Emmett_Brown]

2 planes in Beryl at the moment. Air force plane just found 145kt flight level winds and pressure in the upper 940s. Still going strong.