ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

That would be T7.5 on Dvorak?

[Hurricane2022]

Uptrending my peak to 175 to 185mph.

Looks like Milton will reach 160 kt in ~2 hours if this super explosive intensification continues

[AutoPenalti]

I have been locked in to this page since I got into work and I have yet to start anything productive.

[zal0phus]

GOES-19 preliminary Imagery of Milton

https://i.imgur.com/Pgo0V0v.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/DhQOZhU.jpeg

The definition of a pinhole. Holy hell

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Milton doesn’t look like it’s going to stop; good chance it goes sub-900mb in the next few passes. HAFS nailed the intensity. Milton is on par with Dorian.

[Highteeld]

HAFS-B taking this storm to 175 knots with 884 mb.

[InfernoFlameCat]

My guess is 170mph next update.

Technically there is no 170 so it will probably go to 175. What i mean by that is because the NHC goes by knots, every 30 knots is 35mph. So we will see a 10mph jump every once in a while because of the conversion factor. 145-150knots is one of those jumps.

[norva13x]

I feel legitimate terror in a way I never have for a storm. I can't believe this

[ConvergenceZone]

https://x.com/michaelemann/status/1843336981843194151?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg

Meteorologist John Milton on NBC getting choked up explaining the effects coming for the Yucatán and Florida.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it better that it's getting this strong this early though? as opposed to getting this strong tomorrow or tomorrow night? I only say that because hurricanes don't generally stay cat 5 for very long. I mean a cat 5 way out at sea is much better than a cat 5 Wednesday Morning.

Edit: I'm editing this post, because I didn't realize this monster suppose to get so close to Yucatan, so now I understand. My Bad. My prayers go out to them

[Beef Stew]

170330 2145N 09121W 6963 02627 9470 +091 +055 151147 155 166 050 00

Not much difference in the SE quad, surprisingly.

[aspen]

I’d go with 150/914 based on this pass. SFMR is overblown but recon didn’t sample the strongest quadrant.

[Hurrilurker]

If at ANYTIME the Tampa Forcefield needed to be activated...NOW IS THE TIME

In a way, they might get it if this strong shear shows up as repeatedly forecast. Along with maybe some disruption/dry air from its bush with the Yucatan. But yeah, it's still going to be horrific. But they might just be spared the absolute worst case scenario. Imagine if there were no shear and a slower-moving storm with Cat-5 winds into Tampa. Almost all the models seem in good agreement on the track and a substantial weakening of winds in the run-up to the coast (weakened but still very strong, mind you). All I know is if I lived anywhere near there, I'd be long gone by now.

[FLpanhandle91]

I have been locked in to this page since I got into work and I have yet to start anything productive.

SAME. Lol

[mpic]

 https://x.com/bclemms/status/1843332887170691089

What is the reasoning for no contraflow? Is it because half the people will want to evac south? Is there a point south where contraflow would be initiated? Maybe I answered my own question?

[Blinhart]

My guess is 170mph next update.

Technically there is no 170 so it will probably go to 175. What i mean by that is because the NHC goes by knots, every 30 knots is 35mph. So we will see a 10mph jump every once in a while because of the conversion factor. 145-150knots is one of those jumps.

So will the NHC start doing hourly updates since this storm is going through ERI, I could see them doing one soon saying 165 then in another 175 and so on.

[craptacular]

If the AF plane is going to do one final (?) pass in the next 20 minutes or so, how much of a gap are we looking at before the next plane does a pass? I saw someone mention 1:30 pm Eastern, but not sure if that's the next plane's departure time or their estimated first center fix.

According to the Plan of the Day, three planes should be heading out in the next handful of hours: High-level synoptic NOAA flight leaving at 1:30 PM EDT, low-level NOAA leaving at 4:00 PM EDT, and low-level AF leaving at 5:30 EDT. The latter two should both get first passes around 7:30 - 8:00 PM EDT.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I have been locked in to this page since I got into work and I have yet to start anything productive.

SAME. Lol

Same here as well! Haven’t gotten much done. Too busy watching this thing.

[hiflyer]

Just a vote of thanks to Lockheed whose 50 year old designs of the C130 and the Electra morphed into the Weatherbird 130 and P3 flying into a Cat 5.

[Steve]

I am in Archer/Gainesville and I cannot any information on the impacts for this area. What is expected in terms of wind speed?

Tough to say Prof. I’m out at lunch and only looked at the icon before I left. If other models agree and it crosses the state to your south - think low end TS conditions in bands. If it comes closer to Alachua Co as it passes south could be closer to higher end TS. Best I got

[chaser1]

Yup.
We are now in the area of max ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm.
Optimum conditions for further intensification.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://solarham.com/kp.htm

I don't know what any of that means but it doesn't sound like a good thing.

I don't think this is settled science. Some people are looking into the concept that solar flares / CMEs could affect cyclones. But there is no strong evidence to support this.

This is true however while direct correlation has yet to be proven, there has been significant anecdotal and historical data to suggest the possibility of some connection. Hey look, NHC clearly forecasts based on science proven methodology and forecast tools that still contain inconsistencies that our level of science has yet to master. Science itself dictates new hypothesis, analysis, and verification. All that results in successes and failures. Therefore my attitude is, consider all tools at hand with an open mind that the insight may be flawed, but may also be insightful as well. Common sense suggests that we not drown ourselves in Cool-Aid, but sipping some might prove quite refreshing