ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DukeMu]

Much to be learned on the way very powerful storms create their own environment and maintain their strength despite all odds.

There's protective UL high pressure over Beryl. She's a beast. The path continues to be more north of expected.

[longhorn2004]

https://youtu.be/yozin7KekMU?t=474

Interesting about the dust plume following Beryl. Good break from future hurricanes, since dust and hurricane formation do not mix.

[Pas_Bon]

https://imageshack.com/i/pmy0sIwLp
I just want to know why this piece of **** still intensifying???

I'm at this point wondering if Jamaica should be ready for a solid Category 4 strike as opposed to a Category 3.

I’m wondering the same and I’m wondering if a 5 is in play at the moment, although I’m not seeing an avenue for strengthening. However, the shear has not affected her much at all and she has defied most conventional wisdom to-date. She is laughing at it, for all intents and purposes.

[tolakram]

I don't see what I would normally expect to see when looking at a sheared system. Looks like a fairly standard ERC finishing up. Maybe I'm missing something.

There was an EWRC going on?

Honestly, at this point, I have no idea.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the GOES 16 site, im using a long range loop and to me the storm looks more and more ragged, despite the HH data. It looks like it is de-stabilizing some, lets hope this continues. I am also extremely biased and really want this to weaken as quickly as possible so I could be seeing things lol.

[aspen]

I don't see what I would normally expect to see when looking at a sheared system. Looks like a fairly standard ERC finishing up. Maybe I'm missing something.

There was an EWRC going on?

Honestly, at this point, I have no idea.

My best guess is both. There was evidence of an EWRC or other eyewall on earlier microwave imagery (most recent shows a single eyewall), and the system’s hurricane-force wind field and overall convective structure are both lopsided from the shear.

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt be surprised if this regains cat 5 status again

[JRD]

Current wind shear and wind shear tendency:


Despite that, Beryl is intensifying again. Though it can be seen that shear keeps decreasing near Beryl.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just eyeballing the IR, it appears that Beryl is still moving quickly... I estimate 23-25 mph.

[Javlin]

I know they say shear is out there since it crossed the islands the shear has always been out front never actually over the system.I thinking and may be off base it's a very strong system and tall also in the atmosphere is the height not allowing the shear?But that does not take into account the mid level shear.You can see in this clip close to the end weras it looks to clear the throat say and cover the CDO Nicely.This system looks not like a system that is being shear lets see what tomorrow brings were all amateurs for the most part.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[IcyTundra]

Just eyeballing the IR, it appears that Beryl is still moving quickly... I estimate 23-25 mph.

Sounds about right NHC had Beryl moving at 22 mph at the 8 PM advisory.

[Sailingtime]

Just eyeballing the IR, it appears that Beryl is still moving quickly... I estimate 23-25 mph.

Sounds about right NHC had Beryl moving at 22 mph at the 8 PM advisory.

Steering 'currents' have been very strong and steady with Beryl allowing the cyclone to rapidly move through the Caribbean. Hoping for some weakening before it arrives at Jamaica.

[got ants?]

Much to be learned on the way very powerful storms create their own environment and maintain their strength despite all odds.

There's protective UL high pressure over Beryl. She's a beast. The path continues to be more north of expected.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

Thats scary! At this rate, it will be a direct pass over Kingston. I don't see where they've been calling for a near miss, or near hit. I feel like thus will be a direct hit, and in the worst place on the island. Hope I'm wrong, but I had that feeling when she was SE of Barbados, and posted Carruacou looked bad, in Sunday

God I hope I'm wrong..

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the problem is that the shear is not the typical type we think of. From soundings the upper level steering is way slower than the trade winds which are very fast. You can have problems seeing it because it happens under the cirrus canopy that looks like it is unaffected.

[msbee]

Much to be learned on the way very powerful storms create their own environment and maintain their strength despite all odds.

There's protective UL high pressure over Beryl. She's a beast. The path continues to be more north of expected.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

Thats scary! At this rate, it will be a direct pass over Kingston. I don't see where they've been calling for a near miss, or near hit. I feel like thus will be a direct hit, and in the worst place on the island. Hope I'm wrong, but I had that feeling when she was SE of Barbados, and posted Carruacou looked bad, in Sunday

God I hope I'm wrong..

I hope you are wrong too. Jamaica cannot handle a storm like this. I have family there right now.

[HurricaneBrain]

I see ongoing strengthening and feel pretty confident in saying we will see a bump up in winds (155mph or 160mph) next advisory. Side note - she is currently wobbling due west… every wobble matters for Jamaica.

[tolakram]

004
URNT12 KNHC 030235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/02:01:20Z
B. 16.08 deg N 072.46 deg W
C. 700 mb 2659 m
D. 948 mb
E. 140 deg 6 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 124 kt
I. 068 deg 11 nm 01:58:00Z
J. 167 deg 124 kt
K. 068 deg 11 nm 01:58:00Z
L. 99 kt
M. 217 deg 6 nm 02:08:30Z
N. 291 deg 98 kt
O. 219 deg 8 nm 02:09:00Z
P. 11 C / 3058 m
Q. 17 C / 3029 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 1102A BERYL OB 14
MAX FL WIND 124 KT 068 / 11 NM 01:58:00Z
;

Eye still closed, pressure down 1mb in about an hour.

[Woofde]

I think the problem is that the shear is not the typical type we think of. From soundings the upper level steering is way slower than the trade winds which are very fast. You can have problems seeing it because it happens under the cirrus canopy that looks like it is unaffected.

The shear is definitely there, it just doesn't seem to be weakening it yet. If it were weakening the pressure should be rising, but it's fairly steady state right now. Recon eye drops are still showing ~948mb holding. Levi mentioned it can take time for a storm to start feeling shear, a lagged effect. That might explain it, though Beryl might also just be overperforming again. It's hard to tell.

[tolakram]

Distance between VDM's gives a good idea how fast this is moving.

[chaser1]

I think Beryl's appearance is a little deceiving. The eye appears contracted and the very cold tops seem to symmetrically surround its core, with exception to that giant convective tumor northeast of center lol. Here's what I also noticed. You no longer can see clearly through its eye as if some lower level is obscuring from seeing the surface. I think this is reflective of a lower level undercutting wind shear. Couple this with what I believe to very soon be a fairly sharp 270° track adjustment as a result of rather stout increasing 500 mb height rises that the models have been pretty insistent on. I believe that a quick due west motion in concert with brisk WSW mid level shear will undercut its vertical structure and quickly result in Beryl appearing quite northeast-southwest tilted. I'm guessing we'll see evidence of its course correction overnight or early tomorrow. If this does occur then Beryl should once and for all weaken significantly. I would think this might mean that Beryl may be weakened to a Cat 2 as it approaches Jamaica. Typically (especially during El Nino years) we see the more obvious upper level westerly shear which is easier to witness its immediate impact to a storms upper structure.