ATL: CHRIS - Remanants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

94L looks not as good as it did earlier in IR.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3209/yAgEg8.gif [/url]

Hard to see if there is even a LLC trying to form.

Some of the energy is getting sheared north, there is even some temporary vorticity south west of Jamaica.
And the gulf front is going stationary pretty far south.
The actual center of lowest surface pressure isn't doing much organizing though.

[USTropics]

We'll have to continue to monitor 94L for cyclogenesis, with increasing low-level convergence this morning allowing for vorticity to improve at the lower-mid levels just north of Honduras:





I'm not anticipating development before this crosses over the Yucatan Peninsula, but I wouldn't rule out development in the BOC if a semblance of structure can remain. The GFS has been trending towards a more consolidated system before this makes landfall in Mexico:

[NDG]

I'm surprised they are leaving the chances for development at low in the latest TWO with models trending further north with the vorticity staying offshore in the BOC.
It already has a nice vorticity and UL conditions will become very conducive for development over the BOC. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a TS before moving onshore like it has happened many times before.

[LearnedHat]

is there a chance of the remnants to drift north or will it all get carried westward again?

[South Texas Storms]

is there a chance of the remnants to drift north or will it all get carried westward again?

Unfortunately not. Strong high pressure over the Plains will send this just north of due west into Mexico. Maybe some rain as far north as Deep South Texas from this system.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

94L still has that wave look just rolling on.

Source GEOS-16 Geo Colour - https://col.st/4AAgz

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
An area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea associated
with a tropical wave continues to produce widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Development of this disturbance is not
expected today while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
The disturbance is forecast move westward over the Yucatan Peninsula
and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday,
at which point some development will be possible. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with the tropical wave will
affect portions of Central America and Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Tailgater33]

[imgur]https://i.imgur.com/UwRWzii.jpeg[/imgur]

[Tailgater33]

The face of the Yucatán

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Development of this low is not anticipated
before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. The
system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over
the Bay of Campeche Saturday night or early Sunday, where conditions
appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical
depression could form before the system moves inland again early
next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of
Central America and Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Zonacane]

is there a chance of the remnants to drift north or will it all get carried westward again?

Unfortunately not. Strong high pressure over the Plains will send this just north of due west into Mexico. Maybe some rain as far north as Deep South Texas from this system.

More moisture and rain for the southwest though

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce
widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland
over the Yucatan Peninsula later today. The system is then forecast
to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche
tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive
for further development. A tropical depression could form before the
system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure
will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally
conducive for further development. A tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland again early next week over
Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[chaser1]

Looks like it's wanting to develop over land somewhere between 17N & 19 N along 88 W longitude. Still no real evidence of a circulation however but it's certainly a vigorous wave! Reality however is that 94L is so far south and given the deep layer flow and strong ridging over the S.E. CONUS, it's hard for me to see much opportunity to have enough (or any) time over the BOC to actually develop.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it's wanting to develop over land somewhere between 17N & 19 N along 88 W longitude. Still no real evidence of a circulation however but it's certainly a vigorous wave! Reality however is that 94L is so far south and given the deep layer flow and strong ridging over the S.E. CONUS, it's hard for me to see much opportunity to have enough (or any) time over the BOC to actually develop.

All depends on if, when and where a stronger circulation sets up.

[ChrisH-UK]

94L is passing over the Yucatan and is having a lot of convection.

Source GEOS-16 Red Band 2 hoor loop - https://col.st/PeTTD

[aspen]

94L is passing over the Yucatan and is having a lot of convection.

Source GEOS-16 Red Band 2 hoor loop - https://col.st/PeTTD

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1052/Q3r1HH.gif [/url]

I have a friend who’s down in the Yucatan for a wedding, and 94L has completely ruined it unfortunately.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally
conducive for further development. A tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland again early next week over
Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.