ATL: BERYL - Models

[WiscoWx02]

The GFS is trending towards the Euro, might have something more significant in the western Caribbean than we may have otherwise have this time of year, but the Yucatán may have anything from a weak low to major hurricane so stay tuned and while I think this will be a 50mph TS at landfall in the western Caribbean this could be just a wave if TUTT shear stays but a stronger system is also possible but we won’t know until early next week

I’m 99.9% confident that king TUTT will finish it off before it passing south of Hispaniola…Euro is off it’s rocker right now, probably a bad run or two.

[Category5Kaiju]

The GFS is trending towards the Euro, might have something more significant in the western Caribbean than we may have otherwise have this time of year, but the Yucatán may have anything from a weak low to major hurricane so stay tuned and while I think this will be a 50mph TS at landfall in the western Caribbean this could be just a wave if TUTT shear stays but a stronger system is also possible but we won’t know until early next week

I’m 99.9% confident that king TUTT will finish it off before it passing south of Hispaniola…Euro is off it’s rocker right now, probably a bad run or two.

Here's the catch though: the ECAR is the "Graveyard," unless you have a very well-established system entering it before the islands. In this case I think a stronger system in the short run is going to mean a better chance of surviving the ECAR.

[Stratton23]

I would be careful about that, if this ramps up fast and gets compact/ strong, it would be able to survive the Caribbean graveyard even with the TUTT

[ScottNAtlanta]

The GFS is trending towards the Euro, might have something more significant in the western Caribbean than we may have otherwise have this time of year, but the Yucatán may have anything from a weak low to major hurricane so stay tuned and while I think this will be a 50mph TS at landfall in the western Caribbean this could be just a wave if TUTT shear stays but a stronger system is also possible but we won’t know until early next week

I’m 99.9% confident that king TUTT will finish it off before it passing south of Hispaniola…Euro is off it’s rocker right now, probably a bad run or two.

...and don't forget that there is a fine line between a TUTT that shears and one that ventilates.

[tolakram]

Every model except the NAVGEM has this as an organized system prior to the islands. I'd say it's close to a lock we get a storm, only question is how strong.

[Woofde]

0z GFS is sticking with it. It has it down to 969mb in 5 days. Potential early season shenanigans on the horizon?

[LAF92]

Even the 0z CMC is stronger, thru 126 hours it’s 989mb

[chaser1]

Every model except the NAVGEM has this as an organized system prior to the islands. I'd say it's close to a lock we get a storm, only question is how strong.

Wait a moment, "except the NAVGEM"? Stick a pin in it - season cancelled

[OuterBanker]

Never thought that the Euro would be the crazy cousin. But a cat three into Cancun on the 6th on the 12z is crazy.

BTW, there's a reason that no one ever quotes the Navgem.

[Beef Stew]

0z GFS is sticking with it. It has it down to 969mb in 5 days. Potential early season shenanigans on the horizon?https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240627/9de53b24cdaa8e3696cbedd01a5af784.jpg

It's so difficult to tell.
On one hand, modeling in recent years has seemed to perform poorly for June/July storms in the ECar and W MDR- Gonzalo (2020), Elsa (2021), Bonnie (2022), and Bret (2023) all had very bullish model support at one point or another, especially in the ensembles, yet all (though Elsa did still become a category 1) underperformed, relatively speaking (that being said, any formation in the MDR in June typically foreshadows an active season, irrespective of intensity).

On the other hand, the most active seasons on record- 1933 and 2005- both saw iconic, strong hurricanes in the Caribbean having originated from the MDR in June/July. If 2024 is truly going to be a season that falls in the same echelon as the most active years on record, seeing a strong hurricane form in this region this time of year would certainly lend credence to that.

I, for one, fall into the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp- while I don't doubt that we could see a major (or close to it) from 95L, for the time being I have to side with climo until this season proves that it is truly anomalous to the degree of the most active years on record. Until that happens, I can't let myself believe in a solution stronger than a high end TS or category 1 on approach to the lesser Antilles and through the ECar.

[IcyTundra]

00Z CMC and GFS both take 95L to the Yucatan.

[LarryWx]

The UKMET still doesn’t have a TC from this.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there.

[Cpv17]

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there.

To me it doesn’t really matter if it has a cat 1 or cat 3. The bigger picture is that it has this surviving across the Caribbean, which is just crazy to me for this time of year.

[cycloneye]

Here are HAFS-A-B, HMON and HWRF.

[zzzh]

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there.

Ec has it a lot weaker before entering the caribbean, something to watch.

[IcyTundra]

00Z ECMWF is more typical of what I would expect from the model. Probably underestimating intensity slightly like it usually does but definitely a more realistic scenario than the 12Z.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro still has a TC on a similar path to the 12Z but it isn’t as strong as the 12Z had, especially in the W Caribbean, where the 12Z had at least a cat 3. This is at most a cat 1 there.

To me it doesn’t really matter if it has a cat 1 or cat 3. The bigger picture is that it has this surviving across the Caribbean, which is just crazy to me for this time of year.

True dat but I feel it is important to always follow the trend of the models from run to run to try to detect any possible real trends in probabilities up or down as we get closer. This can still turn out to be practically nothing at the Lesser Antilles as per the last several UKMET runs, which pretty amazingly don’t even have a closed low, or perhaps barely a TD like the ICON suggests.

So, it is the solid Euro/GFS/CMC vs the nonexistent or weak UKMET/ICON as I see it as of now. For a NS, it is 60% yes and 40% no.

Edit: The 0Z Euro ens is about as active as the quite active 12Z. What a battle!

[zzzh]

Both EC deterministic and EPS trended toward slower development in the MDR.

[kevin]

00z EPS is still very active with more Florida members than yesterday's 12z (even though I wouldn't put much weight towards steering details until we have a TC).