EPAC: DANIEL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Daniel's organization continues to decrease, and it has become
difficult to distinguish Daniel from the surrounding ITCZ/Monsoon
Trough convection. Subjective and objective intensity estimates
vary around 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt
for this advisory.

It is very hard to determine how well-defined Daniel's surface
circulation is, so its possible that the cyclone is already near
dissipation, but this will be easier to determine after the sun has
been up over Daniel for longer. Regardless, the system should not
be around as a tropical cyclone for much longer as it is quickly
moving into a more hostile environment. Some intensity models,
including the GFS, indicate Daniel could dissipate as soon as
this afternoon. Even if it maintains its circulation for a few
days, all models suggest it will lose deep convection by tomorrow
evening and become a remnant low.

Daniel has accelerated slightly toward the east-northeast, and
should continue heading in that direction today, within low- to
mid-level southwesterly monsoonal flow. After that, dynamical models
continue to indicate that Daniel or its remnants will bend
northward, and then westward, around the outer circulation of
Carlotta. The NHC forecast continues to closely follow the consensus
models and is very similar to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.6N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

A recent ASCAT-B pass over Daniel this afternoon revealed that
Daniel barely has a closed circulation and its maximum winds
have decreased to 30 kt, making Daniel a tropical depression.
Daniel's convective organization is also lacking, but it has
produced persistent deep convection over its center for the past
several hours.

Little change was made to the NHC forecast. Daniel should
weaken and wrap cyclonically around the larger and more robust
circulation of Carlotta during the next couple of days. Global
models indicate that Daniel could open into a trough at any time,
Even if it maintains its circulation, its unlikely to maintain its
organized deep convection beyond tonight. Therefore the largest
change in the NHC forecast is to show Daniel becoming a remnant low
tonight or early tomorrow and dissipating soon after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.3N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 19.4N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Daniel Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Earlier today, GOES Proxy-Vis satellite imagery and microwave
overpasses had indicated that Daniel's surface circulation center
had become less defined, and this afternoon's scatterometer pass
showed a poorly defined surface swirl and possibly open in the
north quadrant. Since that time, the satellite presentation shows
that the cyclone has opened up into a trough while embedded within
the persistent southwesterly monsoonal flow. Accordingly, this is
the last NHC Advisory on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts