ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

98L this morning at sunrise. Looking like a very typical wave curling up in to a storm, plenty of convection and a little bit of shear evident.

Source - https://col.st/xxOIl

[SFLcane]

It is ominous to me the way these forecast tracks have the common factor of barrelling across the Caribbean islands and heading towards the vicinity of Florida and the GOM. Although it is early days there are some similarities with 2004. We will want that to change soon otherwise it could end up a very destructive season.

Thank you Dr Adam for being a part of storm2k your insights are always appreciated.

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2024081012, , BEST, 0, 119N, 393W, 20, 1010, DB

[NDG]

I'll keep saying not until we have a well formed system that starts feeling the weakness which will be created by trough coming down the NE US anything is still possible.
If it indeed grows in height and feel the weakness to its north we have to thank the blocking ridge and heatwave that has been going on over central Canada, otherwise without a block over Greenland that strong Atlantic ridge would had been extending all the way to the eastern US.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1822268084553465904

[ElectricStorm]

I think if this avoids too much land interaction it has a chance to be the next major. Might peak north of the islands. Hopefully it doesn't end up being too destructive.

[CourierPR]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1822268084553465904

Eric Webb's ideas stand in stark contrast with those who were certain of a "screaming" recurve yesterday.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1822268084553465904

To emphasize:
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1822271059149848793

[WaveBreaking]

Has good convection and a moist envelope. The only thing keeping a lid on 98L is its broad circulation and some slight easterly shear, which is odd seeing how most waves i remember usually suffer from westerly shear.

[Nimbus]

AL, 98, 2024081012, , BEST, 0, 119N, 393W, 20, 1010, DB

https://i.imgur.com/k3g2oxV.png

Looked to me like the Apex of the wave might be up near 13-14N but probably just an eddy.
GFS closed it off at 14N this mornings run.
Track further north would be better for the islands.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in
association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical
depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next
week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the
Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor the progress of
this system. Then, the system is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[wxman57]

Thinking they will go with a PTC sometime today. Models have it approaching the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on the 13-14th.

That won't happen today. There needs to be a high chance of it becoming a TS and impacting land within 48 hrs for PTCs to start. Tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, as it reaches the NE Caribbean Tuesday and may not be a TS until late Tuesday. The earlier it develops, the farther east it recurves. Good.

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2024081018, , BEST, 0, 121N, 404W, 20, 1010, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982024.dat

[wxman57]

AL, 98, 2024081012, , BEST, 0, 119N, 393W, 20, 1010, DB

https://i.imgur.com/k3g2oxV.png

Looked to me like the Apex of the wave might be up near 13-14N but probably just an eddy.
GFS closed it off at 14N this mornings run.
Track further north would be better for the islands.

Looks like 12N / 39.3W or so. GFS, ICON, and EC all have it at 12N around 18Z today.

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1822268084553465904

To emphasize:
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1822271059149848793

Also something that Eric says is that in this pattern with a building Rex Block to the north, the trough split will get cut off and not move enough to pull anything that develops OTS. This could also be a prime example of how a cut off trough can pull a cyclone back into the Mid-Atlantic or NE.

[lilbump3000]

(August 10) Taking a look at the Upper-Air pattern for Invest 98L/future Ernesto valid for Wednesday August 14.
The GFS & Euro model guidance does show an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic, which creates a weakness/break in the high pressure ridge for the system to make a turn towards the north somewhere in the vicinity of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and/or the Southeast Bahamas. Stay Tuned!

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1822363064001339807

[msbee]

Tagged a little earlier than I thought it would. The first HWRF/HAFS model runs tomorrow should be interesting.

I think this is all but guaranteed to impact the NE Caribbean (St Kitts, Antigua/Barbuda, St Martin, Virgin Islands, PR, and DR) next week. Beyond that, who knows.

Yep, I am right in the middle of that cone.

[ConvergenceZone]

So I wanted to check today to see if the forecast was still trending "out to sea" after the islands. The funny thing is, I had my answer before I clicked on this thread. Once I saw the thread only had 2 pages, I knew, "Yep, still out to sea" But of course I wanted to post this, so Is till clicked on the thread anyway lol. Page total tells ya everything

[hipshot]

So I wanted to check today to see if the forecast was still trending "out to sea" after the islands. The funny thing is, I had my answer before I clicked on this thread. Once I saw the thread only had 2 pages, I knew, "Yep, still out to sea" But of course I wanted to post this, so Is till clicked on the thread anyway lol. Page total tells ya everything

I don't know about OTS yet, still a long way to go. It still looks like it is going to hit the LA and GA to some extent so who know.