ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like the circ is now emerging over the BoC:

[Frank P]

She's naked and should get dressed before going out. Tonight, might get really interesting as we all know she loves the night life.

[Nimbus]

I'm not sure about the "near or along the Mexican and Texas Gulf coastline" part.
Looks like it is moving back over the BOC a little further east which also means the prior track may have shifted a few degrees north. Model initialization is the primary error source for a track like this followed by intensity of the front, and how far the front digs into the gulf. Worst case scenario, the trough acts as an outflow channel and digs just enough to trap the circulation.

[3090]

I'm not sure about the "near or along the Mexican and Texas Gulf coastline" part.
Looks like it is moving back over the BOC a little further east which also means the prior track may have shifted a few degrees north. Model initialization is the primary error source for a track like this followed by intensity of the front, and how far the front digs into the gulf. Worst case scenario, the trough acts as an outflow channel and digs just enough to trap the circulation.

Early hurricane models show Lake Charles and one of four show nothing of significance into the Tex/Mex border.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not sure about the "near or along the Mexican and Texas Gulf coastline" part.
Looks like it is moving back over the BOC a little further east which also means the prior track may have shifted a few degrees north. Model initialization is the primary error source for a track like this followed by intensity of the front, and how far the front digs into the gulf. Worst case scenario, the trough acts as an outflow channel and digs just enough to trap the circulation.

Not sold yet on a shift in track. The origin of this potential tc isn’t just 91L but an interaction with 90L as well. I think 91L will be the dominant circulation but as 90L moves south it will probably pull 91L west as it is absorbed. At this point I still think a paralleling of the NW gulf coast is most likely. Personally, if I were anywhere on the coast between Matagorda and New Orleans I’d be watching this closely

[wx98]

I'm not sure about the "near or along the Mexican and Texas Gulf coastline" part.
Looks like it is moving back over the BOC a little further east which also means the prior track may have shifted a few degrees north. Model initialization is the primary error source for a track like this followed by intensity of the front, and how far the front digs into the gulf. Worst case scenario, the trough acts as an outflow channel and digs just enough to trap the circulation.

Early hurricane models show Lake Charles and one of four show nothing of significance into the Tex/Mex border.

Looks like the GFS shifted a tad east at 12z compared to 06z. Bringing it in around Lake Charles. 12z ECMWF is more substantial this run and comes in around Port Arthur on Wednesday night.

[Nimbus]

I'm not sure about the "near or along the Mexican and Texas Gulf coastline" part.
Looks like it is moving back over the BOC a little further east which also means the prior track may have shifted a few degrees north. Model initialization is the primary error source for a track like this followed by intensity of the front, and how far the front digs into the gulf. Worst case scenario, the trough acts as an outflow channel and digs just enough to trap the circulation.

Early hurricane models show Lake Charles and one of four show nothing of significance into the Tex/Mex border.

Looks like the GFS shifted a tad east at 12z compared to 06z. Bringing it in around Lake Charles. 12z ECMWF is more substantial this run and comes in around Port Arthur on Wednesday night.

12Z GFS puts the low down quite close to the Mexican coast for the Lake Charles landfall track.
I'll put this run on the scorecard for later though.

[wx98]

Early hurricane models show Lake Charles and one of four show nothing of significance into the Tex/Mex border.

Looks like the GFS shifted a tad east at 12z compared to 06z. Bringing it in around Lake Charles. 12z ECMWF is more substantial this run and comes in around Port Arthur on Wednesday night.

12Z GFS puts the low down quite close to the Mexican coast for the Lake Charles landfall track.
I'll put this run on the scorecard for later though.

It would definitely be a rather odd path. Can’t think of one like it (going northeast from south of Brownsville to Lake Charles) offhand.

[Nimbus]

Looks like the GFS shifted a tad east at 12z compared to 06z. Bringing it in around Lake Charles. 12z ECMWF is more substantial this run and comes in around Port Arthur on Wednesday night.

12Z GFS puts the low down quite close to the Mexican coast for the Lake Charles landfall track.
I'll put this run on the scorecard for later though.

It would definitely be a rather odd path. Can’t think of one like it (going northeast from south of Brownsville to Lake Charles) offhand.

Fujiwara effect is hard to visualize at this distance so the subjective east shift might be better handled by the GFS (at least the NHC thinks so).

[3090]

Looks like the GFS shifted a tad east at 12z compared to 06z. Bringing it in around Lake Charles. 12z ECMWF is more substantial this run and comes in around Port Arthur on Wednesday night.

12Z GFS puts the low down quite close to the Mexican coast for the Lake Charles landfall track.
I'll put this run on the scorecard for later though.

It would definitely be a rather odd path. Can’t think of one like it (going northeast from south of Brownsville to Lake Charles) offhand.

This time of year it would not at all be unusual.

[Hammy]

Seems like there's a pattern with these systems that go over the Yucatan, either with depressions or formative systems, where they lose all their convection and look like they'll be unable to develop--but a vigorous swirl still remains and then blow up about 12-24 hours after clearing land

Given we'll be in Dmax by that point, that will more than likely aide in that process

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2024090718, , BEST, 0, 188N, 926W, 20, 1005, LO

[Frank P]

Latest... she's making her way into the GOM .

[Frank P]

AL, 91, 2024090718, , BEST, 0, 188N, 926W, 20, 1005, LO

https://i.imgur.com/8Sha3Vu.png

Looking at the sat loops it appears the center is a little more east than that position.

[wxman57]

I'm still liking the ICON as far as the track. Inland east of LCH, perhaps near western Vermilion Bay before noon Wednesday as a 45-50 kt TS. These kind of systems always track farther right/east than you initially think.

[Steve]

Should be fun to see the low level centers interact. 90l is coming south to say what’s up. Complicated patterns can be somewhat unpredictable but also take time to resolve. Whether we get a couple centers rotating around a broader low pressure or a merge or even if one ingested the other, we’ll see in a couple of days. I also like Wx57’s ideas of a slightly east of Lake Charles/Cameron landfall as a midgrade TS. Anywhere from Chambers/Jefferson Counties over to Vermilion or St. Mary Parishes seems most likely. Slower and farther east could (should?) be stronger.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

[Frank P]

Should be fun to see the low level centers interact. 90l is coming south to say what’s up. Complicated patterns can be somewhat unpredictable but also take time to resolve. Whether we get a couple centers rotating around a broader low pressure or a merge or even if one ingested the other, we’ll see in a couple of days. I also like Wx57’s ideas of a slightly east of Lake Charles/Cameron landfall as a midgrade TS. Anywhere from Chambers/Jefferson Counties over to Vermilion or St. Mary Parishes seems most likely. Slower and farther east could (should?) be stronger.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

Steve, can't get much better than this tracking cyclogenesis right in our own back yard, as long as it doesn't go nuclear on us..

[3090]

I'm still liking the ICON as far as the track. Inland east of LCH, perhaps near western Vermilion Bay before noon Wednesday as a 45-50 kt TS. These kind of systems always track farther right/east than you initially think.

So the earlier today track of the Tex/La border is no longer a forecast. I think the LCH/Laf middle sounds more in line with the trend of the models.

[3090]

Should be fun to see the low level centers interact. 90l is coming south to say what’s up. Complicated patterns can be somewhat unpredictable but also take time to resolve. Whether we get a couple centers rotating around a broader low pressure or a merge or even if one ingested the other, we’ll see in a couple of days. I also like Wx57’s ideas of a slightly east of Lake Charles/Cameron landfall as a midgrade TS. Anywhere from Chambers/Jefferson Counties over to Vermilion or St. Mary Parishes seems most likely. Slower and farther east could (should?) be stronger.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

Ex 90L will have zero impact on 91L in due time.

[Steve]

Should be fun to see the low level centers interact. 90l is coming south to say what’s up. Complicated patterns can be somewhat unpredictable but also take time to resolve. Whether we get a couple centers rotating around a broader low pressure or a merge or even if one ingested the other, we’ll see in a couple of days. I also like Wx57’s ideas of a slightly east of Lake Charles/Cameron landfall as a midgrade TS. Anywhere from Chambers/Jefferson Counties over to Vermilion or St. Mary Parishes seems most likely. Slower and farther east could (should?) be stronger.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

Ex 90L will have zero impact on 91L in due time.

Maybe. But it’s the more pronounced circulation as of now. You tell me

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0718&fh=54