ATL: FRANCINE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FRANCINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Francine has continued to rapidly weaken overnight while moving
inland across eastern Louisiana. The system is highly sheared due to
its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest.
Francine is quickly losing tropical characteristics, and surface
observations indicate the surface center is located south and west
of the heaviest rainfall. Tropical storm conditions, especially in
gusts, continue over portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the
warning area. Earlier scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt offshore
winds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

The storm has slowed down a bit and is now moving northeastward at
about 10 kt. Francine is expected to turn north-northeastward and
northward today, bringing the center across central and northern
Mississippi. Continued weakening is expected, and tropical storm
conditions along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Alabama are likely to subside this morning as the low weakens
and moves further inland. Given its degraded satellite structure,
Francine is likely to degenerate to a post-tropical low as early as
this morning, with dissipation forecast to occur by 48 h.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... e#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 30.9N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 32.6N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0600Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 35.1N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 90.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Francine was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 90.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
forward speed through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Francine will move over central and northern portions of
Mississippi this afternoon and tonight and move into northeastern
Arkansas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
from the Jackson area is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov.

Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Frances has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves
across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the
central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt
observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The
surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that
Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to
become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be
noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating
by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will
persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat.

The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to
north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants
across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas.

This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/exces ... ok_ero.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$