ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The -80C tops on the DMIN period in the Central Atlantic for a late June system is very impressive.

[SconnieCane]

The -80C tops on the DMIN period in the Central Atlantic for a late June system is very impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/ErNRZvS.jpeg

Looks like a nice, healthy, classic late August JUNE developing MDR TC.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

[Sciencerocks]

[AnnularCane]

Keep checking my calendar, but it always says June...

[zzzh]

NHC has 90kt in 96h. Also, if the 65kt at 18z on June 30 verifies, then it would the second June MDR hurricane on record , the other one is the famous 1933 trinidad hurricane

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC has 90kt in 96h. Also, if the 65kt at 18z on June 30 verifies, then it would the second June MDR hurricane on record , the other one is the famous 1933 trinidad hurricane

I just saw that. They also have it as a hurricane as it gets to the Windward Islands. Jamaica is right in the center of the cone

[USTropics]

5-day forecast track:

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow I didn’t expect them to be THIS aggressive in the first advisory.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

It
should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive
and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For
example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a
major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below
970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Statements like that make me nervous. I suspect we’ll see the storm outperform this initial forecast.

[aspen]

Dang, 90 kt peak on the first advisory…for a JUNE MDR system. I think that’s probably too aggressive. Yes the models are aggressive and 90 kt is below the consensus, but this is still late June/early July. Shear from the strong trades is still a potential factor. I still think we’ll see Beryl play out very similarly to Elsa, peaking as a strong Cat 1 around the Lesser Antilles before the trades decapitate it.

Also, if I had a nickel for every early July western MDR hurricane named Beryl, I’d have two nickels, which isn’t a lot but it’s weird that it happened twice, right?

[BobHarlem]

Don't have a great feeling about the islands there, Barbados, St. Lucia, etc. Hope these folks take it seriously, now would be good. There's Cricket World Cup finals going on this weekend there too in Barbados.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1806797479746167119

[Visioen]

In my opinion, climatology doesn't matter much when the atmospheric conditions are atypical for the time of year.

Also, it's funny to me how I would love models to be better at forecasting TC's, while at the same time when they disagree and there's quite a bit of spread and uncertainty, tracking becomes more fun.

Disclaimer: tracking is fun, people potentially getting in harms way is not.

Edits for grammar mistakes

[GCANE]

AF300 will be landing in St Croix shortly

[Stormybajan]

Before Tuesday, TD2 had my interest with the models but right now seeing the bursting convection going on to the west of the LLC and the very aggressive forecast of 105 mph by the NHC, now it has my FULL attention and concern. 85 mph/ 90 mph hurricane passing to the south of Barbados is no joke! Elsa definitely wont be forgotten anytime soon by our citizens in 2021, key note though Elsa was RACING at 30 mph, TD2 is currently moving at 17 mph with warmer waters and more OHC which means that the affects of such a hurricane will be much more prolonged than the 4 hour burst Elsa gave us from 5 AM to 10 AM. Definitely will be curious to see if this forecast verifies, as it will be a MAJOR warning sign for the peak of this hurricane season thats built up the most hype ive ever seen! The funny thing is theres a cricket worldcup final tomorrow so many bajans will be distracted by that for a while but there after it will be a mad dash into the super market for many families . Historically we havent seen many hurricanes in this part of the world get as strong as the forecast suggests but the hurricane models such as HWRF, HAFS, HMON have been going crazy with it (as they tend to do lol) . So I will be keenly watching to see for safety but also scientific reasons if TD2 can match, surpass or flop the 105 mph peak..as it could give us some kind of idea what the conditions were like in 1933! (1933 Trinidad Hurricane being the best analog for this besides Elsa)

[GCANE]

No wonder NHC is aggressive. On IR, I can see mid-to-upper tropospheric hot spots forming, next to the hot-towers, from convective latent heating.

[Nimbus]

AF300 will be landing in St Croix shortly

Some layer analysis will be helpful, NHC still holding this as a Hurricane near Jamaica so the TUTT evolution is going to be important as well.

[tiger_deF]

Hopefully we get a good microwave pass of this storm before 8 or 11 PM. The size of the current convective mass is such that a center relocation closer to it's central mass could allow for more strengthening than anticipated. Looks fantastic on IR with a broad swath of -80 hot towers, a proto-CDO, and banding.

Broad convective masses that vary in size are by no means an indication of a powerful cyclone when there is shear, but they can help stack the levels together.

[wxman57]

I think the NHC is too high with intensity and too far north with the track. They're following consensus, which, I think, is too far north due to the GFS input. Same thing as with Idalia last year, the GFS operational and ensembles were into the western FL panhandle, making the TVCN/TVCC point the hurricane at Apalachicola. There should be a building ridge north of the storm by days 4-5, which will likely turn it due west or south of west. Still thinking Belize, though maybe northern Belize. My coworker thinks it may enter the Caribbean as far south as Grenada, as models are almost always too far north in situations like this. NHC will likely be adjusting their track southward with time.

[weeniepatrol]