ATL: BERYL - Models

[hurricane2025]

CMC is bad bad ignore it it’s worse than navy

[TomballEd]

A week out is too early to get too specific with landfall locations. Of course, Louisiana and Texas, Central America and both the Caribbean and Gulf coasts of Mexico are potentially in the path.

[Blinhart]

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... 1719710423

As I suggested in the Discussion thread, this is what I was talking about, Jamaica and North, anywhere in the GoM Coast, South of Jamaica, CA then to Chorpus Christi South.

[LARanger]

https://i.ibb.co/Wp1nSV2/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Caribbean-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

Presented without comment

This animated-spaghetti graphic format is fantastic, except for one thing: it makes me feel like Dick Cheney's hunting partner, peppered with shot. Spaghetti lines that include me, or even single model runs that run over me in the distant future, are less worrisome than seeing multiple possible future histories that target me unfold in this way.

Or is that just me?

[Stratton23]

This euro run is a bust as well, almost 10-11 mb higher than current observations, looks like we can only really rely on the GFS right now until the CMC/ Euro correct to the real observations

[TomballEd]

The op GFS is an outlier to the GFS ensembles. I see 5 members that would directly affect the US.

[Sambucol2024]

What’s the guesstimate of category Beryl might be on landfall?

[Stratton23]

06z hurricane models are in, most of them are making a sharp turn north once they get into the gulf

[3090]

06z hurricane models are in, most of them are making a sharp turn north once they get into the gulf

That would be insane, IF it played out. But it is still beyond the 5 day period. I am not at all confident of ANY forecast path, betond 5 days.

[Teban54]

0z deterministic global models:

0z GFS

• Init 988 mb
• 968 mb at Windward Islands landfall (peak)
• Gradually weakens to 987 mb while skirting the SW coast of Jamaica, then holds steady in Western Caribbean
• Landfalls in Yucatan at 985 mb
• Enters BoC at 997 mb, reintensifies to 987 mb at landfall near Corpus Christi

0z ECMWF

• Init 1003 mb
• 988 mb at Windward Islands landfall
• Intensifies and then maintains 960-975 mb throughout the Carribean, tracking just south of Jamaica
• Peaks at 958 mb just offshore Yucatan-Belize border, slightly weakens to 964 mb at landfall
• Reintensifies from 992 mb to 967 mb in the BoC, weakens back to 986 mb at landfall near Tampico

0z CMC

• Init 1007 mb
• 995-991 mb at Windward Islands landfall
• Weakens slightly before landfall in Haiti at 994 mb
• Gets crippled but continues as a TC with pressure in the 1000s, clips the western tip of Cuba
• Recurves and intensifies in the GoM, landfalls in NOLA at 988 mb

0z ICON

• Init 1009 mb
• 993-990 mb at Windward Islands landfall
• Keeps intensifying to 974 mb south of the Mona Passage, then maintains 970s until just south of Jamaica
• Weakens to 990 mb just past Jamaica, but reintensifies to 977 mb at landfall in Yucatan
• Enters GoM at 989 mb, intensifies to 964 mb peak, run ends at 966 mb on track to Matagorda Bay

[aspen]

The HAFS-A/B are now showing Beryl surviving the TUTT-induced shear and intensifying once again in the western Caribbean. They weaken it down to a Cat 1 in the central Caribbean, but it recovers and bombs back out into a major as it approaches the Yucatan.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

What’s the guesstimate of category Beryl might be on landfall?

Monday, July 1 around 12pm

[aspen]

6z hurricane models aren’t showing much deepening before shear picks up. I don’t think they’re properly picking up in Beryl’s current RI. The HWRF and HAFS-A initialize far too weak (mid 970s Cat 1-2).

[3090]

Not sure anyone wants to see the latest long term
global models. Or any of the other hurricane model long term tracks. An obvious trend. We’ll see.

[Teban54]

6z hurricane models aren’t showing much deepening before shear picks up. I don’t think they’re properly picking up in Beryl’s current RI. The HWRF and HAFS-A initialize far too weak (mid 970s Cat 1-2).

Verification at 12z 6/30:

HWRF: 979.0 mb, 90.6 kt
HMON: 978.9 mb, 83.4 kt
HAFS-A: 982.6 mb, 86.3 kt
HAFS-B: 974.5 mb, 103.1 kt
Actual: 968 mb, 100 kt

[CronkPSU]

Not sure anyone wants to see the latest long term
global models. Or any of the other hurricane model long term tracks. An obvious trend. We’ll see.

I didn’t but now that you say it like that, I do!!!! Lol

[Blinhart]

Not sure anyone wants to see the latest long term
global models. Or any of the other hurricane model long term tracks. An obvious trend. We’ll see.

Yeah I don't like the look of the loop.

[tolakram]

CMC is bad bad ignore it it’s worse than navy

IT IS NOT, there is verification to prove it. This is the second time you've been corrected.

[NDG]

No wonder the Euro shows a stronger Beryl in the western Caribbean than previous run and both it and the GFS show the TUTT to move far away to not much affect it if any as it gets in the western Caribbean. Euro shows 3 good outflow channels.

[tolakram]

I feel like the TUTT is one of those things amateurs love to talk about, and in seasons where it sticks around they are 'right' but not because they are right. A major hurricane is it's own system, we'll see how much of an effect it has down the road and how the models handle it.