ATL: DEBBY - Models

[BobHarlem]

12 models black east..

https://i.postimg.cc/FKtF2Pg3/IMG-9139.gif

Check date/position that graphic is glitched using yesterday's 12z.

[SFLcane]

12 models black east..

https://i.postimg.cc/FKtF2Pg3/IMG-9139.gif

Breeze has picked up in sofla, precip looks meager for now.

Still south of Cuba ways away still closest approach is not till tonight. 12z models could bring the flooding totals back up for SFL.

[Michele B]

This might be one of the toughest forecast challenges I've seen in recent times. Where this is headed after Florida is a big question. A look at the GEFS ensembles at 7 days shows three groups. Some show members riding the Gulf stream north to either New England or Canada. Others show pretty much a complete stall, which would not be ideal for the south east, (although the wind threat isn't as likely to be a problem in these runs with most staying inland). Finally, there's a small outlier group of members where they somehow end up in Texas‽ There's a lot of wrinkles in these forecasts.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240803/bf3de921612e3be14a5714fe80c49639.jpg

The euro has a prolonged stall over NC/SC, still there a week from today, that looks like a far bigger issue than Florida will see. Dont fall asleep on the wave train, its loading up as we get into peak season, a setup that will make those season cancel posts a faded memory.

A prolonged stall looks like the most likely outcome. Between the Bermuda high and the ridge In the Midwest dipping down, Four just might drift around right off the FL/GA coast for days.

Of course, NONE of this takes into account that this thing could bomb out and intensify to a Cat 2 or 3 once it gets clear of Cuba and tastes that nice, warm bath water in the Gulf.

[SFLcane]

12 models black east..

https://i.postimg.cc/FKtF2Pg3/IMG-9139.gif

Check date/position that graphic is glitched using yesterday's 12z.

This is correct it’s an error using yesterdays data.

Thanks for catching that. Going to back to sleep.

[Jr0d]

Of course, NONE of this takes into account that this thing could bomb out and intensify to a Cat 2 or 3 once it gets clear of Cuba and tastes that nice, warm bath water in the Gulf.

Take a look at the NAM 3k intensity, which should almost never be used for intensity. All the meso scale models should be not be trusted for tropical systems but they do often see short steering patterns changes before the hurricane model. While the intensity is bonkers, I do think they are picking up that the trough, despite being fairly weak, is helping spin up the storm.

I do think once this clears Cuba, future Debby will find itself in an environment very conducive for RI, the chances of a hurricane are pretty high now, this time yesterday we were thinking low end tropical storm. It seems like the Global models agree with this solution.

The extra ~24 hours over hot water in concerning. Almost hard to imagine how this ragged depression could evolve into a strong tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

[REDHurricane]

Take a look at the NAM 3k intensity, which should almost never be used for intensity. All the meso scale models should be not be trusted for tropical systems but they do often see short steering patterns changes before the hurricane model. While the intensity is bonkers, I do think they are picking up that the trough, despite being fairly weak, is helping spin up the storm.

I do think once this clears Cuba, future Debby will find itself in an environment very conducive for RI, the chances of a hurricane are pretty high now, this time yesterday we were thinking low end tropical storm. It seems like the Global models agree with this solution.

The extra ~24 hours over hot water in concerning. Almost hard to imagine how this ragged depression could evolve into a strong tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

Wait, are you trying to tell me that future Debby isn't going to experience an 80mb pressure drop in a 24 hour time period????

[BobHarlem]

No change on 12z earlies for Florida, but yikes for Savannah/Hilton Head area.

[otowntiger]

No change on 12z earlies for Florida, but yikes for Savannah/Hilton Head area.
https://i.imgur.com/yqBdPrR.png

Just keeps nudging west. Tally could soon be in the crosshairs and the further west it goes the stronger and more consolidated it could get. Could it be a lot of the peninsula escapes serious effects?

[shannalynn35]

Hi everyone! With your expertise does anyone see this possibly nudging back East and possibly making landfall near Tampa as opposed to the Big Bend area?

[robbielyn]

Hi everyone! With your expertise does anyone see this possibly nudging back East and possibly making landfall near Tampa as opposed to the Big Bend area?

no if anything further west. the center relocated 20 miles more west hence the track more west. right now track wise we r looking at the storm staying 95 miles off west central coast of florida. so will go more west not east at this point.

[Steve]

Hi everyone! With your expertise does anyone see this possibly nudging back East and possibly making landfall near Tampa as opposed to the Big Bend area?

I don’t but it doesn’t mean there won’t be squalls and gust winds.

[DunedinDave]

Hi everyone! With your expertise does anyone see this possibly nudging back East and possibly making landfall near Tampa as opposed to the Big Bend area?

Only way I think this happens is if the center relocates which can happen in disorganized systems like this. But I’m sure there are more expert opinions out there than mine.

[Stormlover70]

Hi everyone! With your expertise does anyone see this possibly nudging back East and possibly making landfall near Tampa as opposed to the Big Bend area?

Only way I think this happens is if the center relocates which can happen in disorganized systems like this. But I’m sure there are more expert opinions out there than mine.

Nhc is great on track. They struggle on intensity

[cheezyWXguy]

12z icon stronger this run, brings it into big bend at 984mb

Edit: this is incorrect. Turns out I was still looking at the 12z gfs. 12z icon shows little change from the 6z run.

[DunedinDave]

12z GFS is weird. It has it going due north past the Keys and then takes a 30-50 mile dip to the west-southwest. Strange.

[Nimbus]

Hi everyone! With your expertise does anyone see this possibly nudging back East and possibly making landfall near Tampa as opposed to the Big Bend area?

Latest sat imagery looks like they may have to initialize the models further west.
Closer to 24N -84W.

[aspen]

GFS continues to trend towards less and less time over water after Florida. It may never re-emerge over water next run.

[toad strangler]

GFS continues to trend towards less and less time over water after Florida. It may never re-emerge over water next run.

CMC has been showing that since at least yesterday 12z through to today 12z

[Nimbus]

Trough has been digging south into the gulf not unlike Ian but Debbie is a shallower system ATM so may continue WNW rather than making the unexpected track shift east.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK: similar to 0Z with LF just E of Apalachicola; then NNE move to WC GA, then ENE/E to CHS, then turns up coast NNE into E NC followed by NE through VA, NE US, SE Can: not as bad flood threat vs other models due to less slowing SE US followed by accel. with it already in NC at 120 vs near GA/SC border GFS/CMC/0Z Euro:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 81.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2024 0 21.9N 81.3W 1010 27
0000UTC 04.08.2024 12 24.2N 84.0W 1007 31
1200UTC 04.08.2024 24 26.2N 84.7W 1005 40
0000UTC 05.08.2024 36 27.8N 84.9W 1002 46
1200UTC 05.08.2024 48 29.1N 85.1W 1002 45
0000UTC 06.08.2024 60 30.3N 84.6W 1003 30
1200UTC 06.08.2024 72 32.0N 83.9W 1003 37
0000UTC 07.08.2024 84 32.6N 82.4W 997 38
1200UTC 07.08.2024 96 32.6N 80.2W 996 37
0000UTC 08.08.2024 108 33.0N 79.4W 995 40
1200UTC 08.08.2024 120 34.6N 78.8W 996 43
0000UTC 09.08.2024 132 35.8N 78.1W 998 36
1200UTC 09.08.2024 144 37.7N 76.2W 1000 44
0000UTC 10.08.2024 156 42.2N 72.2W 999 36
1200UTC 10.08.2024 168 47.2N 66.3W 996 35