ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Kirk has ingested a bit of dry air which has disrupted the eye in the last few hours , Kirk is in an area of dry air or it might of been a eyewall replacement. This is a 3 hour loop of Kirk using GeoColor Proxy and Tropical Airmass (thats why its pink) to show details of Kirk.

Source - https://col.st/IJ32i

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2656/YHsGsA.gif [/url]

Looked like a pretty significant gulp of dry air; you can clearly see it being drawn into the south/southwest of the circulation.

[kevin]

Looks like dry air, like the NHC also say in their advisory, instead of an EWRC. Dry air can trigger an EWRC, but I don't think there's one (yet). Meanwhile it looks like Kirk is slowly recovering and will most likely still intensify in the short-term if it doesn't ingest more dry air. ADT now up to 5.9 (112 kt) with a raw T# of 6.1. DPRINT also back up to 105 kt, back on the rise after a dip to 100 kt due to the dry air.

[aspen]

Outflow seems restricted on the SW side but overall Kirk is looking a lot better after its overnight hiccup and should be a Cat 4 soon. Probably going to max out at 120-125 kt.

[kevin]

Kirk will indeed still have to do some work in the SW quadrant due to the aforementioned dry air, but the hurricane is looking quite healthy now. The CDO is cooling again and the eye temperature has risen to +14C. Raw T# at 6.2 and the CI of 6.0 supports 115 kt. DPRINT is also up to 112 kt. For now I'd put Kirk's intensity back at 945mb/110kt, but if improvements continue NHC might just go up to 115 kt at the 11 am advisory.

[WaveBreaking]

Looking at this vis-red + mid-level wv sandwich image, there is some dry air to the west of Kirk. However, Kirk will be moving to the north of this airmass, and shear will also decrease, which should allow for more strengthening.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Guess he needs to get his stomach pumped or something

Kirk has ingested a bit of dry air which has disrupted the eye in the last few hours , Kirk is in an area of dry air or it might of been a eyewall replacement. This is a 3 hour loop of Kirk using GeoColor Proxy and Tropical Airmass (thats why its pink) to show details of Kirk.

Source - https://col.st/IJ32i

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2656/YHsGsA.gif [/url]

Looked like a pretty significant gulp of dry air; you can clearly see it being drawn into the south/southwest of the circulation.

[kevin]

Kirk now:



Kirk 2 hours ago:

[WaveBreaking]

Kirk and Leslie

[cycloneye]

AL, 12, 2024100312, , BEST, 0, 201N, 455W, 110, 948, HU

[AnnularCane]

Guess he needs to get his stomach pumped or something

Looks like he just did.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Guess he needs to get his stomach pumped or something

Looks like he just did.

"Warm moisture! Glorious moisture!" I imagine him singing.
(I'm really terrible)

[aspen]

Still looks to be a bit of a dry tongue in the CDO (which isn’t fully solid yet). Perhaps another few hours before it’s fully mixed out.

Edit: nvm, might’ve just been an illusion caused by the rotating eyewall convection.

[Kazmit]

Oddly belly button-like.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Oddly belly button-like.

https://i.ibb.co/Y037ys3/Kirk-1.gif

Well he is filling his belly with a lot of warm water
(god I need to stop)

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's walled off the dry air now. Should be able to get to 120-130kts assuming no more intrusions

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

CI up to 6.2, raw T# to a 6.3. I expect a cat 4 at the next advisory.

[HurricaneBelle]

Oddly belly button-like.

https://i.ibb.co/Y037ys3/Kirk-1.gif

The lint in that belly button is made up of mesovortices.

[WaveBreaking]

Nice-looking stadium effect today