ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[HurricaneBrain]

To me, it looks like the motion is NW in the last few frames...

https://i.imgur.com/r2ohKI2.gif

[WaveBreaking]

Anyone else notice a “blob” structure to the east? Reminds me of Matthew in the same general location in 2016.

A smaller one is to the south of that.
IMHO its an indication of a feeder band with associated vigorous convection

I’m not so sure on that. Feeder band at least try to wrap around. This feature shows no sign of rotating around the core of the hurricane. It is firmly planted almost due east of the center.

It is also almost completely cut off from the rest of the system. And it seems stable. Been a feature for a while. For Matthew, the “blob” existed for a LONG time directly to the east of the system, while also being relatively cut off. That smaller burst to the southeast popped and is fading already. But the “blob” stays.

Finally, the cloud tops in the “blob” are just as intense on IR as the core of the system. I can’t recall another system besides Matthew that had a similar feature. Feeder bands don’t have cloud tops that match or exceed the core. Something else is going on here.

IMO it looks like the fast ESE trade winds are creating a convergence zone with SW winds from Beryl’s circulation.

[Craters]

Is that a huge outflow boundary from collapsing cells on the northwest edge of the storm? Beryl is definitely moving into a lot of dry air.

[Javlin]

To me, it looks like the motion is NW in the last few frames...

https://i.imgur.com/r2ohKI2.gif

Was thinking the same maybe land friction?looks ATTM maybe bisect Jamaica

[UTSARoadrunner4]

According to https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time= , it seems like shear has slightly weakened to the NW of Beryl. There’s an isolated pocket of 15-20 knots of shear to the WNW of Beryl, right before the Yucatán & Belize. I would think that further weakening of Beryl depends on its interaction of this pocket of shear and what part of the Yucatán it hits.

If it aims for Cancun, then I would anticipate a major or high-end Category 2 in the Gulf due to less interaction with that shear pocket and land. Versus if it hits Tulum, then we’ll probably see Beryl as a Category 1 back into the Gulf due to interaction with that shear pocket and the Yucatán/Puuc Hills.

Let me know if my assumption is wrong, but that’s just my 2 cents.

[Blinhart]

I don't see her weakening down to 100 MPH before the Yucatan, therefore I think all the forecast from the Yucatan onwards is way off. I can see this staying a Major all the way to the Yucatan and possibly only clip the Yucatan and go much further North.

[jaguars_22]

Blinhart… idk it looks like it’s possibly already under 100mph!?? This thing is taking a beating! And all models show it weak now… not just a few models but most of them!

I say a low end hurricane hitting Yucatán and then weakening to low end tropical storm and landfall Tampico…. So weird and odd everything wants Tampico this year

[Blinhart]

Blinhart… idk it looks like it’s possibly already under 100mph!?? This thing is taking a beating! And all models show it weak now… not just a few models but most of them!

I say a low end hurricane hitting Yucatán and then weakening to low end tropical storm and landfall Tampico…. So weird and odd everything wants Tampico this year

There is no way it is down to 100, got -90C cloud tops and getting the eye wall reforming I think this thing still has winds about 135, since the NHC just updated and said it is 140.

[jaguars_22]

Is recon going out this afternoon? Your probably right blinhart! Just weird it looks this way and still that strong

[Blown Away]

Warm spot in the middle looks like a real close brush or landfall…

[Iceresistance]

Didn't we see this before back in June where Beryl was able to wrap upshear and strengthened to the earliest C4 hurricane on record?



https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SrPnU.gif

[LadyBug72]

Didn't we see this before back in June where Beryl was able to wrap upshear and strengthened to the earliest C4 hurricane on record?


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SrPnU.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SrPnU.gif

What does this show?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Blinhart… idk it looks like it’s possibly already under 100mph!?? This thing is taking a beating! And all models show it weak now… not just a few models but most of them!

I say a low end hurricane hitting Yucatán and then weakening to low end tropical storm and landfall Tampico…. So weird and odd everything wants Tampico this year

There is absolutely zero evidence to support Beryl being that weak; we just had a recon fairly recently that still showed Category 4 despite ragged appearance.

Believe it or not, it's not unheard of to have major hurricanes that look ragged. Matthew 2016 is a striking example.

[Nimbus]

There is a new burst of convection but the dangerous core winds appear to be staying off Jamaica for the most part. Recon will give us more information about the current intensity later.

[Hurrilurker]

Heavy rains coming down in Kingston. Winds aren't crazy yet but definitely picking up, notably gustier compared to an hour ago.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... orama.html

[HurricaneBrain]

IR sure does give an illusion of the center reforming SE.

[Hammy]

radar still shows a pretty solid eyewall

[Kazmit]

The last recon pass fixed the pressure as being 1mb lower. Certainly looks to be holding steady if not deepening again. That new burst of convection wrapping around the center is impressive for a "weakening" system.

[cheezyWXguy]

IR sure does give an illusion of the center reforming SE.

It does, but IR is only seeing the top-most layer of clouds. Beryl has been tilted some by the shear, which is why its eye has been cloud filled. Whatever abatement of the shear that’s occurring right now seems to be allowing it to realign vertically.