ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Helene should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that will be very conducive for
strengthening. The system is expected to traverse the Loop Current,
which has especially high oceanic heat content. This, along with
fairly low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to lower-
tropospheric air mass, should likely result in rapid
intensification before landfall. The official forecast continues
to call for the hurricane to reach category 4 status tomorrow. It
should be noted that the HAFS-A and HAFS-B regional hurricane models
show even more intensification than indicated here.

[HurricaneBelle]

It's closing up, RI has begun. No matter what the NHC says, the minimum central pressure of 972 mb is a Catergory 2 hurricane. 965 mb to 979 is a Category 2 according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Pressure is not part of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Wind is the only criterion.

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson

I know it's not, however the Hurricane Hunters could have missed the area that had Category 2 wind speeds. Pressure shows that Helene is strengthening and is close to or is Category 2.

OK, but you quoted a specific pressure range as part of the scale that doesn't exist. There isn't a 1:1 relationship between pressure and wind speed, numerous factors such as ambient pressure, structure of the storm, etc. all play a role.

[Teban54]

Yeah it's looking pretty gnarly now. On an unrelated note, Isaac unexpectedly formed in the Northern Atlantic.

It would have made much more sense if THIS storm was named Isaac instead.

[Meteorcane]

Entering the highest amount of OHC in the GOM, should help sustain convection overnight into Thursday AM. UL outflow will also be enhanced south of the jet streak, into tomorrow AM. I wouldn't bet against this thing looking pretty good come tomorrow morning.

[Jonny]

Yeah it's looking pretty gnarly now. On an unrelated note, Isaac unexpectedly formed in the Northern Atlantic.

It would have made much more sense if THIS storm was named Isaac instead.

This, or Gordon.

[Category5Kaiju]

With Helene looking like it's already about to take off and hit Florida and with John making landfall as a Category 3 and regenerating with a second landfall looking possible tomorrow for Mexico, this particular Central American Gyre has been quite remarkable.

[bjackrian]

Per the most recent wind probs, Atlanta has a 78% chance of seeing 34 kt winds and less than 1% chance of 50 kt. That's both a scary high probability of TS winds and a remarkable confidence that they won't be higher than low to mid TS force.

[CrazyC83]

Per the most recent wind probs, Atlanta has a 78% chance of seeing 34 kt winds and less than 1% chance of 50 kt. That's both a scary high probability of TS winds and a remarkable confidence that they won't be higher than low to mid TS force.

It's likely to be similar to Opal there, which I think brought gusts of 65-80 mph in some areas.

[thickiminaj]

Yeah it's looking pretty gnarly now. On an unrelated note, Isaac unexpectedly formed in the Northern Atlantic.

It would have made much more sense if THIS storm was named Isaac instead.

I said the exact same thing earlier to a friend.

[PavelGaborik10]

Looking more and more impressive with each frame

This may be it

[CrazyC83]

Yeah it's looking pretty gnarly now. On an unrelated note, Isaac unexpectedly formed in the Northern Atlantic.

It would have made much more sense if THIS storm was named Isaac instead.

That would have been the case had PTC 8 broke off the frontal zone. Instead, a bit of relief as we've got a lot more replacement names to choose from. Isaac can wait until at least 2030...

[thickiminaj]

Looking more and more impressive with each frame

This may be it

Whatcha looking at - I wanna look too.

[LandoWill]

So they just changed the angle of approach to landfall. From say parallel new port richey north it's more of an angle. You can see the track change at https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Hurrilurker]

Per the most recent wind probs, Atlanta has a 78% chance of seeing 34 kt winds and less than 1% chance of 50 kt. That's both a scary high probability of TS winds and a remarkable confidence that they won't be higher than low to mid TS force.

Even 34 kt winds are no joke. I get nervous when the wind gusts here hit like 25-30 mph (lots of tall trees around us).

[Hugo1989]

This is reminding me Charley when it was supposed to make landfall in Tampa Bay and after start the RI from cat 1 to Cat 4 shift direction to ends up in Punta Gorda. The translation was 21 mph and also developed a pinhole eye. Does the history repeats itself?

[HurricaneBelle]

This is reminding me Charley when it was supposed to make landfall in Tampa Bay and after start the RI from cat 1 to Cat 4 shift direction to ends up in Punta Gorda. The translation was 21 mph and also developed a pinhole eye. Does the history repeats itself?

No.

[cheezyWXguy]

It's closing up, RI has begun. No matter what the NHC says, the minimum central pressure of 972 mb is a Catergory 2 hurricane. 965 mb to 979 is a Category 2 according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Pressure is not part of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Wind is the only criterion.

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson

I know it's not, however the Hurricane Hunters could have missed the area that had Category 2 wind speeds. Pressure shows that Helene is strengthening and is close to or is Category 2.

They didn’t miss category 2 winds, those winds simply don’t exist yet. In fact recon data barely justifies cat 1 winds right now, if at all. In time, they’ll catch up

[PavelGaborik10]

Looking more and more impressive with each frame

This may be it

Whatcha looking at - I wanna see too

[img]blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/04f89030-98ed-410a-b60a-f8bd5a150a74[/img]

[Zonacane]

Hot towers going up everywhere

[thickiminaj]

Looking more and more impressive with each frame

This may be it

Whatcha looking at - I wanna look too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/04f89030-98ed-410a-b60a-f8bd5a150a74

Dang. It won’t show me. No worries.