ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/1RdM3jkZ/goes16-vis-02-L-202407031605.gif [/url]

Warm spot in the middle looks like a real close brush or landfall…

Gonna be an extremely close call for Jamaica. Just a tiny bit to the north, and parts of the southern coast are getting a Cat 4 eyewall.

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1808580446667878553

[weeniepatrol]

???

[Teban54]

Is this a storm that is supposed to be weakening?

[Hurricane Jed]

Beryl is quickly weakening under strong SW-W shear. Recon should make a pass through the center shortly. First G-IV mission was last evening. As a result, the hurricane models have shifted back to the south with final landfall not far from Tampico. That's encouraging for Texas. The weaker it is in the SW Gulf, the farther west it goes as it misses the connection to the trof. Come on, Beryl, weaken!

Chris you just can’t wish it away. Is what it is.

[Pipelines182]

Is this a storm that is supposed to be weakening?
https://i.postimg.cc/x1v2pw5W/goes16-ir-meso1-2.gif

Definitely strengthening.... wow eye is warming as we speak

[Hurricane Jed]

She steaming along

[Kazmit]

When does the next recon mission depart?

[Beef Stew]

Beryl just continues to defy expectations.

[Teban54]

Looks like Portland Point, the southernmost tip of Jamaica, is now getting the strongest portion of the eyewall:

[Teban54]

Some Twitter discussion of Jamaica's impacts on storm tracks. This may give some scientific basis to the "bouncing" idea that I mentioned earlier, though obviously far from conclusive.
 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1808583012776292441



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1808585610514608636



 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1808586515888378071

[3090]

Beryl (by radar) definitely has a more northern component to her movement then she has had the past 48 hours or so.

[HoustonFrog]

So is Beryl stronger than models forecasted at this point?

[InfernoFlameCat]

So is Beryl stronger than models forecasted at this point?

Oh yeah. Well above what it was supposed to be.

[Kazmit]

It's like Beryl is trying to get as close to Jamaica as possible before it starts affecting her organization. Cruel storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Some Twitter discussion of Jamaica's impacts on storm tracks. This may give some scientific basis to the "bouncing" idea that I mentioned earlier, though obviously far from conclusive.
 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1808583012776292441



 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1808585610514608636



 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1808586515888378071

Was hoping a reference to Ivan would be made, I remember a good amount of discussion about this phenomenon back then

[Hurrilurker]

Conditions in Kingston degrading rapidly. Went from almost calm and a view clear across the city to windy and chaotic with poor visibility in a short period of time.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... orama.html

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1808575507115692417

[3090]

So is Beryl stronger than models forecasted at this point?

I do not recall ANY of the models forecasting Beryl as a C4 impacting Jamaica. IIRC it was a C3. All being said the two most heavily relied on models GFS and EURO both have performed poorly with their intensity forecasts. This will more than likely lead to a decent amount of uncertainty with forecast tracks beyond say 72 hours. But the NHC is not for overreacting to changes in every model run. They typically look at two-three model runs of consistency before they move a forecast track or intensity forecast.

[texsn95]

So what's going to start steering Beryl on a more Westerly course, as many of the models are (erroneously?) showing? Will this fight through the shear also delay this more Westerly course?