ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I don't know if the plane will get there in time before the eyewall replacement starts. It'll be close.

[got ants?]

What was that blob to the NE to Milton?

[Michele B]

Hey all, been a long time follower and in Orlando. Lived 30 years in Tampa and have friends from Anna Maria, Apollo Beach, Tampa, St Pete and Tarpon Springs. Ex lives on Harbor Island and son just said he is driving down there tomorrow. None are leaving and it is crazy. This is the most intense storm heading this way that I have ever seen.

Thank you to everyone for your expertise. If information is power, this site is fantastic.

I have said it a few times and will say it again.

Anyone in a surge zone in that cone needs to evacuate, especially Pasco and south from there!!

And to add, anyone within 50 miles of the track in a mobile home should leave, no questions asked!!!

This is not a video game, folks, this is serious. Your life is in danger if you stay and emergency services will be unable to help you!!!

Was it Weather Channel folks who used to tell people who refused to leave to write their names, DOB, SS# on their forearm in indelible ink so that when they find their body, they can be identified.

Maybe it needs to be repeated again.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t think this thing is past peak. At least, it’s maintaining, judging by satellite. Cdo has cooled slightly and become rounder, eye seems consistently warm and round. I’m sure there’s a secondary eye wall getting ready to close off but I don’t see any evidence of it beginning to compete yet

[WaveBreaking]

Eye temp starting to rise again. Back up to 10°C on the latest frame.

[johngaltfla]

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

My input, and I'm not a forecaster or a meteorologist.

The big risk will be tornadoes in your area as the storm starts to move faster to the E/ENE and the air destabilizes further.

If anyone has anything to add to this, please do.

Difference being that I (nor anyone I know here in Florida) will not take any added precautions, preparations, or purchase items in advance of Tornado Watches. Meaning, no structural fortification or additional pruning. A brief F-0 tornado event is entirely possible and many have occured over the years but those odds are similar to the lottery.

The issue is the cold front. If cold air is entrained into that area of the state from the jet stream, higher leve (F1-F3)tornadoes are not out of the question.

[Hurrilurker]

Everyone's focusing on Florida, but Merida, Mexico is about to take a very close hit from an extreme Cat-5, and there's over 1.3 million people in the area. As well as, I'm guessing, some very old architecture and building codes. That could well be a massive disaster before it even approaches the U.S.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/pwFxSP1.gif

It's almost hypnotic watching the eye clear out as the animation goes forward

[johngaltfla]

What was that blob to the NE to Milton?

A straggler low that emerged from near the Yucatan. Creating wet, miserable conditions for all of us on ladders with hammer drills.

[Steve]

Our corporate weather partner put out an update valid for 2pm Central. Let me just say that if they are right, and their mets are good and may be known to many of you, peak is in 24 hours. I’m not going to post their estimated winds or max gusts because no one would believe them. But stay tuned for a possible reintensification and increase by 2:00 tomorrow.

[Michele B]

A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.

Remember, too, that "landfall" is when the actual EYE touches land.

The effects of the storm, and specifically of the eye wall, and the area around it with the strongest winds, may come ashore many minutes (or hour(s) before that time. You'll want to be in your safe place long before the strongest winds start to come in.

[FLLurker32]

Many folks in the target zone won't start evacuating until 24 hours prior to landfall.

It must be a human-nature thing.

Roads will be clear heading out of town and then suddenly everyone realizes they need to leave.

Lots of folks don't have the money or ability to leave.

All the reserve power-restoring workers are up in the Helene destruction-zone. Usually in a big hurricane you will see thousands of trucks/workers staged in a safety zone ready to come in after the storm.

We would meet them coming in like an army cutting their way in as we cut our way out.

There was always a small celebration as both sides knew they had a clear path ahead.

Resources to get power back are now stretched to the limits.

And the hurricane season isn't even over yet.

Chuck

Just seen a photo from a friend. Paddock mall parking lot in Ocala is filled with power trucks sitting.

[Frank P]

looks like Milton will run parallel to the Yucatan coast which probably will have little effect, or no effect on him. Clear sailing until landfall might be in the cards.. except for the forecast dry air and wind shear upon landfall, and the FL residents better hope that can knock down this beast before landfall, but the surge will still be historic for many coastal areas.. sad but west FL can't get any breaks from mother nature this year...

[jlauderdal]

Many folks in the target zone won't start evacuating until 24 hours prior to landfall.

It must be a human-nature thing.

Roads will be clear heading out of town and then suddenly everyone realizes they need to leave.

Lots of folks don't have the money or ability to leave.

All the reserve power-restoring workers are up in the Helene destruction-zone. Usually in a big hurricane you will see thousands of trucks/workers staged in a safety zone ready to come in after the storm.

We would meet them coming in like an army cutting their way in as we cut our way out.

There was always a small celebration as both sides knew they had a clear path ahead.

Resources to get power back are now stretched to the limits.

And the hurricane season isn't even over yet.

Chuck

Just seen a photo from a friend. Paddock mall parking lot in Ocala is filled with power trucks sitting.

I hope they are prepared for hurricane force winds

[Kingarabian]

SAB came in at 6.5 btw. Without recon this could've been a cat.4 lol.

[jdray]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

I think this will end up like Francine and Helene. Storm encountering a jet core near landfall has lower sustained wind at the surface but gusts nearly twice that. Yeah, I don't expect any hurricane force sustained wind in Orlando, but they may see gusts over 100 mph. Gusts can do a lot of damage.

I remind people of this all the time. Even if you won't see sustained hurricane force winds, a big storm can still have hurricane force gusts in their bands, plus the whole tornado thing.

Helene was mild in our area, except for the one heavy band that came through. 80+ mph gusts in some areas and a tree landed on my in-laws house, puncturing the roof. Our house was rattling during that band around 12:30AM that night.

[underthwx]

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
158 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Oct 7
2024

Major Hurricane Milton is now an extremely strong Cat 5 hurricane
with winds up to 175 mph. Milton will grow in size as it heads
towards the West Coast of Florida as a disastrous hurricane. Milton
is expected to weaken slightly but will still be a major Cat 3
hurricane at landfall with destructive damage expected on Wednesday.
Storm Surge along and south of the track will be life threatening
and catastrophic. If you are asked to evacuate you need to do so.
This storm surge will be life threatening. The high winds will also
cause widespread and major damage as the eyewall tracks through the
state. If you are outside of the storm surge area and decide to stay
you need to have supplies to last for a week or more without power
or water.

Bottom line: If Milton stays on its course this will be the most
powerful hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years. No one in the
area has ever experience a hurricane this strong before.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

After the storm starts to pull away gusty northerly winds will
continue for the rest of the week. Cooler and drier air will be
forced down from the north for Friday and into the weekend. This
will result in our first night or two of widespread 60`s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

MVFR is favored to prevail through Wednesday. Conditions will begin
deteriorating late tomorrow as Milton approaches. All terminals
could potentially see wind gusts with Milton from 50 to 100kts or
higher on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Life threatening boating conditions will start to come
into our Gulf waters starting on Tuesday as Major Hurricane Milton
will push towards Florida. Boaters should be off the water for
Tuesday and Wednesday as this could be the strongest hurricane in
our waters in over 100 years. Winds will stay breezy and out of the
north between 20 to 30 knots for our Thursday and Friday before
slowly dropping down for the weekend.

This discussion says it all.....its time to go.....please dont attempt to ride this out....I have never read a forecast discussion quite like this one my friends....all of you matter to me....and I wish each and everyone of you...the best possible outcomes....be safe!

[mpic]

I see it mentioned here some and hear a lot in my area about not being able to leave for a hurricane due to finances. I'm on SS so I can definitely relate. I have a credit card that I only use for emergency situations, such as one of my furbabies getting bitten by a copperhead and needing antivenom. I do my best to have it paid off to serve as an important part of my hurricane preparedness kit. Maybe not feasible this time for some but something to consider in the future.

[fllawyer]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

I think this will end up like Francine and Helene. Storm encountering a jet core near landfall has lower sustained wind at the surface but gusts nearly twice that. Yeah, I don't expect any hurricane force sustained wind in Orlando, but they may see gusts over 100 mph. Gusts can do a lot of damage.

Are you still calling for landfall south of Tampa?

[chaser1]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

I think this will end up like Francine and Helene. Storm encountering a jet core near landfall has lower sustained wind at the surface but gusts nearly twice that. Yeah, I don't expect any hurricane force sustained wind in Orlando, but they may see gusts over 100 mph. Gusts can do a lot of damage.

Thanks! Of course the biggest question is whether those 80-100 mph gusts are widespread, or limited to those 3 or 4 unlucky locations (which will later be perceived as tornadic)? If those gusts are fairly widespread, than significant impact to most people will occur and should be best planned for. The impact Helene had for most Central florida residents was maybe a couple hours of minor yard work and relative few experiencing loss of electricity. My expectation up to now was that the impact locally would mirror closer to Charlie, than Helene.