ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

SAB came in at 6.5 btw. Without recon this could've been a cat.4 lol.

Dvorak does terrible with small pinhole eyes, since it can't resolve the eye temperature. Would be T7.5 if it was able to resolve it.

[Highteeld]

Last few satellite frame suggest its still getting stronger. Would assume Milton is at its MPI right now, or within a few mb of it.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon should be making their pass within an hour and a half traveling at current speed.

[underthwx]

Still intensifying?.....how much more can Milton strengthen?....this is the strongest cyclone that I personally have ever heard of....

[floridasun]

is still moving east or now ene?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Still intensifying?.....how much more can Milton strengthen?....this is the strongest cyclone that I personally have ever heard of....

You should see Patricia of 2015. mslp of 872mb and winds of 215mph.

[jfk08c]

Still intensifying?.....how much more can Milton strengthen?....this is the strongest cyclone that I personally have ever heard of....

Wilma was the lowest recorded in the Atlantic at 882. They can get pretty damn low

[Sciencerocks]

I'll guess the next recon will have ~172 knts flight level winds and 185 knt smrf and 902 mb's. It could get down close to rita 2005 but I suspect it'll tie Katrina for pressure.

I think it has strengthen another 8-12 mb's since last pass.

[Kingarabian]

SAB came in at 6.5 btw. Without recon this could've been a cat.4 lol.

Dvorak does terrible with small pinhole eyes, since it can't resolve the eye temperature. Would be T7.5 if it was able to resolve it.

Well if a color picker or a workstation is used they could easily see the eye is WMG vs OW. Then they're embedding into the W ring instead of the CMG ring.

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like Milton will run parallel to the Yucatan coast which probably will have little effect, or no effect on him. Clear sailing until landfall might be in the cards.. except for the forecast dry air and wind shear upon landfall, and the FL residents better hope that can knock down this beast before landfall, but the surge will still be historic for many coastal areas.. sad but west FL can't get any breaks from mother nature this year...

Not sure about the dry air yet, but yea all the models seems to be in agreement regarding the violent shear expected to induce a fair amount of weakening. I think we have to be thankful for the small things. Just imagine if the conditions would have been perfect up until landfall. That's something I don't even want to think about. Yikes!

[jdray]

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

My input, and I'm not a forecaster or a meteorologist.

The big risk will be tornadoes in your area as the storm starts to move faster to the E/ENE and the air destabilizes further.

If anyone has anything to add to this, please do.

Difference being that I (nor anyone I know here in Florida) will not take any added precautions, preparations, or purchase items in advance of Tornado Watches. Meaning, no structural fortification or additional pruning. A brief F-0 tornado event is entirely possible and many have occured over the years but those odds are similar to the lottery.

After Hurricane Frances spawned a tornado over our house that hit ground down the road, I don' take tornado watches for granted. That train sound has stuck with me. Even TS Bonnie that year spawned a F2 in Jacksonville. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpy037xcdvY

[Pasmorade]

My input, and I'm not a forecaster or a meteorologist.

The big risk will be tornadoes in your area as the storm starts to move faster to the E/ENE and the air destabilizes further.

If anyone has anything to add to this, please do.

Difference being that I (nor anyone I know here in Florida) will not take any added precautions, preparations, or purchase items in advance of Tornado Watches. Meaning, no structural fortification or additional pruning. A brief F-0 tornado event is entirely possible and many have occured over the years but those odds are similar to the lottery.

After Hurricane Frances spawned a tornado over our house that hit ground down the road, I don' take tornado watches for granted. That train sound has stuck with me. Even TS Bonnie that year spawned a F2 in Jacksonville. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpy037xcdvY

Also turns out every single hurricane that struck land this year created a F2 or stronger.

[Rail Dawg]

Just seen a photo from a friend. Paddock mall parking lot in Ocala is filled with power trucks sitting.

Glad to hear they are staging. The power trucks will be from across the country.

You'll see caravans of them heading in on the freeways.

They stage in a safety zone along with all the first responders who evacuated once a mandatory evacuation order was issued.

As a review a citizen is not required to evacuate when mandatory evacuations are ordered.

It means all emergency personnel including the police are no longer there to help and you truly are on your own.

Was always a sad feeling when they all left just before the storm. Many wanted to stay but the protocols are there for a reason.

Along with the power workers cutting their way in all the first-responders were there eager to get into the war zone and do their heroic work.

Chuck

[grapealcoholic]

Likely about to start an EWRC (meld)

Then next peak likely tomorrow in zone of max divergence

[abajan]

About a half-hour ago CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper starts with Jake emphatically stating, A Category 5 hurricane is headed for Florida's west coast. If I didn't know Milton was forecast to weaken to a Cat 3 by the time its eye reaches Florida I would think it was going to hit at Cat 5 intensity! The news media really needs to stop with the sensationalist headlines.

[johngaltfla]

Just seen a photo from a friend. Paddock mall parking lot in Ocala is filled with power trucks sitting.

Glad to hear they are staging. The power trucks will be from across the country.

You'll see caravans of them heading in on the freeways.

They stage in a safety zone along with all the first responders who evacuated once a mandatory evacuation order was issued.

As a review a citizen is not required to evacuate when mandatory evacuations are ordered.

It means all emergency personnel including the police are no longer there to help and you truly are on your own.

Was always a sad feeling when they all left just before the storm. Many wanted to stay but the protocols are there for a reason.

Along with the power workers cutting their way in all the first-responders were there eager to get into the war zone and do their heroic work.

Chuck

Florida has done this since 2017. DeSantis is one of the best planners for these events I've every seen in my life.

[Michele B]

I see no significant risk of flooding in Miami-Dade or Broward if away from the coast. 6-8" for inland areas may pose a temporary nuisance but not particularly threatening, as long as you're not driving around in it

Still though, to my point, would you rather play bingo with the non-zero possibility of seeing double digit rainfall amounts under training rain bands, or go for the sure thing and heading further NW where things will be all clear?

Where will it be clear NW? If I decide to leave I'm probably heading south. The only place I can think of where it will be clear to the NW is Alabama and the panhandle and that's just too far for me.

I'm with ya. Also, Alabama is a long way away.

If it were me, I'd probably head for Homestead/Islamorada area. But that's just me. Not advising!

[johngaltfla]

About a half-hour ago CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper starts with Jake emphatically stating, A Category 5 hurricane is headed for Florida's west coast. If I didn't know Milton was forecast to weaken to a Cat 3 by the time its eye reaches Florida I would think it was going to hit at Cat 5 intensity! The news media really needs to stop with the sensationalist headlines.

It's getting old already.

They have everyone in full blown panic down here.

Us old far* natives are just watching and prepping.

[ConvergenceZone]

About a half-hour ago CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper starts with Jake emphatically stating, A Category 5 hurricane is headed for Florida's west coast. If I didn't know Milton was forecast to weaken to a Cat 3 by the time its eye reaches Florida I would think it was going to hit at Cat 5 intensity! The news media really needs to stop with the sensationalist headlines.

I know it's sickening how they spread misinformation, not very responsible. But it's all about the views.

[nlosrgr8]

Still intensifying?.....how much more can Milton strengthen?....this is the strongest cyclone that I personally have ever heard of....

You should see Patricia of 2015. mslp of 872mb and winds of 215mph.

Camille in 1969 was my worst, it was a nightmare. 175 sustained fir 1 min, 900mbar