ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I could be mistaken, but isn’t there an anticyclone to the SW of Beryl, off the coast of Nicaragua & Costa Rica? Or is that an ULL? Whatever it is, it seems like thats what’s helping Beryl right now and may hurt Beryl in the future as a source or shear.

[HurricaneRyan]

Another storm this is reminding me of - Ike/Gustav.

Beryl at this point feels like a Megamix of past legacy storms of the past 30 years.

[tolakram]

I could be mistaken, but isn’t there an anticyclone to the SW of Beryl, off the coast of Nicaragua & Costa Rica? Or is that an ULL? Whatever it is, it seems like that’s the source of the shear.

Some of that, but mostly the fact that Beryl is moving west really fast.

[Cachondo23]

Looks like Beryl will be moving to the BoC, will be the 3rd name system to be in that area. Could be the bulls eye region of this season. We will see. More interesting, the C system was there before the B one.

[Aric Dunn]

IF you all are curious.. what the models missed ( and all those who only look at models). the tutt that was across the western carrib and extending up across florida..... ended up in the last 12 hours mostly cutting off and begin retrograding. this changed the shear axis and looks to be opening up a outflow channel. always use your eyeballs. models are a guide only... not be hugged

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

will it last ? maybe. the tutt/low should continue westward keeping Beryl in a pretty decent environment.

[Nimbus]

Isn't it hitting Jamaica right now? Looked at the webcams and just looks like a rainy day? Did they get lucky?

Microforecasting the landfall is always risky.
Kingston is a south shore community that just missed the core winds.
Surface pressure rose to the 960's on approach to Jamaica but could drop again.
If recon finds sub 960 surface pressures once Beryl clears Jamaica the forecast weakening due to shear may have to be reanalyzed.

Not feeling real confident either way about future Beryl but glad the populated areas of Jamaica are missing the the core winds so we don't get a repeat of Carriacou.

[Javlin]

Beryl is back up to 20mph in forward movement that's a strong steering current when it slows down expect a change in direction it can't and will not turn on a dime.The system has mass it's a fluid with millions and millions of water droplets also partly why land masses play a role with a weak steering currents.The ULL to the NNE/NE are on the move E by midnight their effect on Beryl will dissolve look at the WV below.The shear to the WNW will abate also as time moves on looks like maybe 20/30 mph over the Keys watch the clouds stream 2nd link.I am really thinking she may may pass the gap ......

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1808596108848881936

[GCANE]

Last eyedrop shows slight drying.
84% RH at 850mb

[tolakram]

[Javlin]

IF you all are curious.. what the models missed ( and all those who only look at models). the tutt that was across the western carrib and extending up across florida..... ended up in the last 12 hours mostly cutting off and begin retrograding. this changed the shear axis and looks to be opening up a outflow channel. always use your eyeballs. models are a guide only... not be hugged

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

will it last ? maybe. the tutt/low should continue westward keeping Beryl in a pretty decent environment.

Thanks Aric she been giving that TUTT tongue a lashing looks to of won and yes eyeballs it's called Fluid Dynamics.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like Beryl will be moving to the BoC, will be the 3rd name system to be in that area. Could be the bulls eye region of this season. We will see. More interesting, the C system was there before the B one.

Ridging is typically stronger over the southern United States this time of year. That is why so many storms including Beryl are staying more south in the Gulf. The pattern typically begins to become more dynamic with deeper troughs in August and September which is why storms often can make it further north that time of year. Everything is also a case by case pattern, so predicting where landfall bullseye zones will be is very difficult.

[tropicwatch]

IF you all are curious.. what the models missed ( and all those who only look at models). the tutt that was across the western carrib and extending up across florida..... ended up in the last 12 hours mostly cutting off and begin retrograding. this changed the shear axis and looks to be opening up a outflow channel. always use your eyeballs. models are a guide only... not be hugged

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

will it last ? maybe. the tutt/low should continue westward keeping Beryl in a pretty decent environment.

Always a good idea to look out the window and see what is actually happening

[GCANE]

So, I don't know if this is an anomaly or not, but a large warm spot popped up on IR right where the eye would be.

[Blinhart]

Looks like Beryl will be moving to the BoC, will be the 3rd name system to be in that area. Could be the bulls eye region of this season. We will see. More interesting, the C system was there before the B one.

She might miss the BoC to the North, this storm is defying everything.

[Aric Dunn]

IF you all are curious.. what the models missed ( and all those who only look at models). the tutt that was across the western carrib and extending up across florida..... ended up in the last 12 hours mostly cutting off and begin retrograding. this changed the shear axis and looks to be opening up a outflow channel. always use your eyeballs. models are a guide only... not be hugged

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

will it last ? maybe. the tutt/low should continue westward keeping Beryl in a pretty decent environment.

Thanks Aric she been giving that TUTT tongue a lashing looks to of won and yes eyeballs it's called Fluid Dynamics.

yeah there was little doubt Beryl wouldnt be able to plow through the tutt. of course there would some draw back and interactions but it would win out. what I didnt see coming was part of the tutt cutting off.

figured it would take some time to recover.

but here we are.

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/LMGhvnE.gif

I don't think a single model showed her doing what she is doing right now, so I think we are all screwed in figuring out where she will be in 72 hours let alone 120 hours from now.

[GCANE]

Also, there is the ULL forming off the Gulf-Coast of FL.
My thought is this will Fujiwhara with Beryl and give Beryl a shift in track, i.e. a stronger north component.

[sphelps8681]

Aric as he just state about the TUTT as well as Tropical Tidbits a couple of days ago are saying the same thing. Thanks to them both.

[GCANE]

IF you all are curious.. what the models missed ( and all those who only look at models). the tutt that was across the western carrib and extending up across florida..... ended up in the last 12 hours mostly cutting off and begin retrograding. this changed the shear axis and looks to be opening up a outflow channel. always use your eyeballs. models are a guide only... not be hugged

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=c ... =undefined

will it last ? maybe. the tutt/low should continue westward keeping Beryl in a pretty decent environment.

Thanks Aric she been giving that TUTT tongue a lashing looks to of won and yes eyeballs it's called Fluid Dynamics.

yeah there was little doubt Beryl wouldnt be able to plow through the tutt. of course there would some draw back and interactions but it would win out. what I didnt see coming was part of the tutt cutting on.

figured it would take some time to recover.

but here we are.

The TUTT never had any strong 355K PVS signature. It was a dud from the start